S&P 500 Mirrors Intraday Treasury Yield Swings
$SPX is tracking intraday peaks and troughs in Treasury yields very closely as macro correlations remain elevated #fairleadstrategies https://t.co/9bi1kaFWxh
Sovereign Spreads Lag Behind FX in Pricing Fundamentals
also interesting that sovereign spreads have widened—you’ve seen terms of trade differentiation in FX but sov debt has been slower to price differing country-by-country macro fundamentals
10‑Year Yield
Another big development last week was that the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.48%. The chart below shows that the yield has continued to coil in a large triangle, and could be on the verge of a break-out. Meanwhile,...
Fed’s Reserve Policies Shield Wall Street, Fuel Inflation
It prevents fed funds cuts, props up Wall Street, props up inflation, all because the Repo Gang of Four won't deal with uneven distribution of reserves.
War's Continuation Could Keep 10‑Year Rate Near 5
Thoughts? Certainly could happen but 10 yr could also be close to 5% if this war still rages
UK Gilts Mirror Trump’s Spoof: Market Holds the Power
Gilts are to the sitting UK government what Spoos is to Trump; the game will continue until either market says no more.
New Book A Fabulous Debt Now Open for Pre‑Orders
Please prepare yourself for months of shameless self-promotion, mute me on socials, feel free to avoid me in public etc, because my next book — A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World — ...
Oracle Data Center Debt Costs Surge to High‑Yield Levels
Wow, borrowing costs on Oracle data center projects have widened to as high as S+450 $ORCL is IG. The data centers being built for Oracle are pricing like high yield.
Energy Crisis Turns Into Mortgage Rate Surge for Buyers
The energy shock is now a financial shock—and it’s hitting American homebuyers directly War → higher Treasury yields → higher mortgage rates → worse housing affordability
Global Quad3 Stagflation Triggers Bond Yield Surge
US Stocks Only Fans don't get it, but The Bond Market does It's called Global #Quad3 Stagflation with a breakout in Bond Yields https://t.co/LfjSg2suV3
Traders Prematurely Betting on BOE Rate Hike
Bailey says traders are getting ahead of themselves on BOE rate hike bets https://t.co/eeKELZndt9 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/kDqxSw5RoE
US Bond Market Endures Record 68‑Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
High‑Yield Bonds Diverge, Falling While Risk Rally Persists
$HYG Daily. Biggest early divergence to the rally in risk is high yield/junk and some private credit names in the red. Here, high yield corporate bonds gapping down. Trump speech tonight on tap https://t.co/9x0hkcFmtd
Fed President Signals Rate Hold, Open to Adjustments
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
Each Dollar of Debt Increases Rate Risk, Reduces Crisis Flex
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
Gilts, Euro Bonds Rally as Oil Slumps on Iran Optimism
Gilts and European bonds surge as oil drops on Iran war optimism https://t.co/FkSGPhfdFv via @alicegledhill1 @highisland https://t.co/pKqalXyzEV
China Accelerates Local Debt Cleanup via Central Debt Swap
1/4 Yicai: "China’s local debt cleanup is moving faster, with the central government’s debt swap program simultaneously lowering borrowing costs and shrinking the implicit debt pile." https://t.co/Ru3dUFDjL5
Foreign Central Banks Dump US Treasuries Amid Iran Conflict
"Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war" https://t.co/B4oQiLaXmS "Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive...
Foreign Central Banks Slash Treasury Holdings to 2012 Low
Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up...
Interest on Debt Outpaces Entire U.S. Defense Budget
$39T national debt. 10Y yield: 4.44%. Annual interest: ~$1.1T. That exceeds the entire defense budget. The US is paying more to service its past than to defend its future. There is no clean exit from a fiscal spiral at this scale. --- https://t.co/maHJkCjSBw
Mativ's 95¢ Pricing Ranks Among Deepest US Lev Discounts
Mativ priced at 95 cents. Only 2 US lev loans have priced at deeper discounts this year.
NY Fed Custodial Treasury Holdings Drop Significantly
The FT has a good article on the recent fall in the Treasuries held by the New York Fed's custodial account 1/ https://t.co/q3XrJ1bvlZ
April Tax Season Squeezes Liquidity, Hits USTs
It's quarter-end with a smallish duration extension later today. More importantly a reminder that April is the cruelest month for USTs as tax payment season liquidity squeeze generally pressures financial assets https://t.co/k7egjG0Wku
Initiating Long Bond Shorts to Bet on Steepening
I am also beginning to leg into long bond shorts against a portion of this position to play for a steepener.
Foreign Central Banks Cut UST Holdings to 2012 Low
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
Investors Rush Short‑Term Treasuries Amid Equity‑Gold Decline
With equities down and gold in the gutter (zero corr can be a nasty surprise), investors are PILING into treasury ETFs, which took in about $30b in March, over double recent monthly avg, namely ultra short like $SGOV and $BIL...
March Market Turmoil: Dollar Rises,
In March: - US dollar set for best month since 2024, bond yields poised for largest monthly rise since 2024 - S&P poised for biggest monthly drop since 2022 -Brent crude set for its biggest ever monthly gain - Average US gas prices are...
Coupon Supply vs GDP Reveals Misleading Percentage Metrics
not a big fan of doing percentage shares of the outstanding when the outstanding is way up -- here is a chart of coupon supply as a stock normalized v GDP 1/2 https://t.co/yTbJuALpQ8
Maintain Credit Spreads, Avoid Blowouts for Weeks
Just keep credit spreads from blowing out for a few more weeks is all I ask.
Bonds Beat Stocks YTD, AGG Shows Small Alpha
YTD... stocks $SPY -7.1% Bonds $AGG -0.2% Not a perfect zig-zag, but certainly some alpha in $AGG https://t.co/IWkDvMCo0x
Lodging Delinquencies Surge, Driving Overall CMBS Rise
Where’s the next CRE pain point as I warned last year? @TreppWire CMBS Delinquency Rate increased 41 bps to 7.55% in March, reversing Feb’s decline. Lodging posted largest increase, jumping 137 bps to 7.31%, the first time it’s been >7% since...
Private Credit Stress
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
10‑Year Yield Breach: Will Geopolitics
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
Rising 10Y Yields and Inflation Pressure Asset Prices
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
Watch if France, Japan, UK Echo US Yield Drop
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...
Goldman Sachs Momentum Basket Slides over 7%, Near Yearly Low
MORE LIKE NOMENTUM Goldman Sachs’ high beta momentum long basket down >7% today, poised for its 4th worst session in the past year https://t.co/s1Xac2PsMI
High‑Yield Spreads Below 400 Signal Market Bounce
The stock market is screaming fear. VIX at 31. The bond market? Shrugging. High-yield credit spreads are at 317 basis points — BELOW the 20-year average. One of these markets is wrong. If spreads stay below 400, we bounce. If they blow through 500, brace...
Invest Blindly? JOJO Watches Utilities, Spreads, Macro Risks
You wouldn't drive with your eyes closed. Why invest in credit without watching the signals? $JOJO keeps its eyes on utilities, spreads, and macro risk. Always. https://t.co/Ap3Tk7ZcGZ
No Risk Premium? Switch to Long Treasuries
When spreads offer no compensation for risk, you're not being paid to hold credit. Period. $JOJO shifts to long-duration Treasuries when the signal confirms it. https://t.co/GLMuxK8o97
TLT Rally May Mask Inflation Risk, Not a Safe Haven
$TLT can rally in a recession and still be a bad trade if inflation expectations won’t chill. Duration isn’t a safe haven when the bond market stops believing. https://t.co/Rb9uYrLUHk
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
US Treasury Yields Slip, 10‑year Hits 4.334%
Tplex: UST Yields moving lower today.... Dimes +24/32's 110-29 10 Yr Notes 4.334% (-10.6 bp's)
Powell Claims Inflation Expectations Still Well Anchored
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
Markets Price 5bps of Rate Cuts This Year
Cuts winning out vs hikes now. Market net pricing 5 bps of cuts this year https://t.co/jSHybRo8Ni
Powell Says Fed Tools Can't Curb Supply Shocks, Halting Hikes
*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS This is in my opinion the right take, and it completely punctures the probability of rate hikes in the US. They are going to sit this one through
Junk Credit Spreads Widening, Still Early In Trend
Junk credit spreads are certainly widening, but if this is going to become a meaningful move, we are not even out of the first inning. https://t.co/KwASCn8uAh
US Policy Follows Bonds, Not Oil, Amid QE
U.S. policy is governed by the bond markets, not oil prices. We will be doing QE and pumping asset prices like crazy in order to crash land the Treasury markets after this mess. cc: @LynAldenContact @lukegromen are over the target.
Navigating Credit Stress: Dislocations, Liquidity, and Private Risk
Credit markets are shaped by dislocations, liquidity, and risk. Kieran Goodwin of Saba Capital speaks to three decades in credit, risks in private credit, and positioning for stress. https://t.co/oiutNgtCW9 With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Falling
Core running south of headline is a “tell.” Will it catch @federalreserve off sides if they misinterpret the message of demand destruction?
Fed Funds Futures Return to Normal, Near‑Term Hike Priced Out
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu