Markets Shift From Rate Cuts to Tightening Regime
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
High‑Yield Spreads Tight Now, Widening Ahead
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
US Yield Spike Driven by Term Premia, Not Inflation
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
Norway Signals Rate Hike After Holding at 4%
Norway pivots toward a hike after keeping its rate steady at 4% https://t.co/NIIgGpvVNO via @ottummelas https://t.co/RxPhCKi99b
Start Investing Safely with ₦5,000 FGN Bonds
Most young Nigerians do not know that the Federal Government of Nigeria is literally offering them a safe investment starting from just ₦5,000. FGN Savings Bonds are one of the most underutilized investments in Nigeria. The offer opens every month. The minimum is...
Liberty's $475
Macro: convertible issuance funds growth but signals investor caution. Key: Liberty upsized $475M 0% convertibles due 2032, $37.44 conv (~30% premium). Risks: dilution, unsecured notes, redemption triggers. Trading insight: avoid new longs pre-conversion. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China's $3T Surplus Hasn't Boosted US Bond Inflows
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
IG Index Spread Returns to Near‑Unchanged Level
The IG index spread of 84bps is now back near unchanged levels since February 27 https://t.co/44eACVJ587
Fed Expands FIMA Access, Extends Window, Could Crash Yields
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Bonds and Gold Drop, Boosting Money‑Market and Buffer ETFs
Where Have All the Hedges Gone? - @psarofagis channeling Paula Cole into a timely note today re how once again bonds fell with stocks. This time gold fell too. This is why Money Mkt Funds and Buffer ETFs are increasingly...
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
US Faces $10 Trillion Debt Refinance, Interest Pressure Rising
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Invesco Acquires Superstate Tokenized MMF, Marking Trad
BOOM: Invesco to Acquire Superstate's USTB Tokenized MMF Management One of first acquisitions of a crypto-native fund by TradFi asset manager. TradFi now majority of top 10 tokenized MMFs $2.2T asset manager Invesco acquiring management of $USTB ($950M AUM, 5th largest tokenized...
Rising 10‑Year Yields Signal Regime Shift, Not Safety
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
10-Year Yield Climbs Amid Accelerating Inflation Nowcast
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
Yield Spikes Signal Worldwide Reset, Not US‑only Trend
It may be tempting to think that the rise in yields is the product of a US-centric dynamic (relating to OPEC recycling no/fewer petrodollars into Treasuries), but the next chart shows that yields are rising everywhere. This is global reset,...
Ex‑PhD Punk Rocker Built $135B Bond Empire
Which bond titan ditched a Ph.D. for punk rock, emailed his way into Wall Street, then built a $135B fortress overnight?
5-Year UST Auction Likely Tough After Poor 2-Year
UST 5y auction will be interesting after a nasty 2y yesterday. Some news cross-currents may have affected clean bidding for 2s which should be a factor for 5s today as well. Also more of a concession would be...
10-Year Yield Near Critical Triangle Breakout Threatening Markets
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
T‑Bills: Safe, Steady Growth for Young Nigerians
Treasury Bills will not make you rich overnight. But they will grow your money safely, consistently and with zero drama; which is exactly what every young Nigerian investor needs as a foundation. Start lending to the government, and get paid.
Yield Spike Near 4.5% Signals Market Trouble
Long yields broke out last week and finished the week at 4.39%. As I have written many times, nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets, as is now the case. https://t.co/mq0q2S2nBU
Investors Shun Bond Dip Amid Massive Losses
$TLT bleeding $1.2B. $HYG losing $623M. Credit spreads widening. Nobody is buying the dip in bonds. What do they know? $LQD $BND https://t.co/88YFIH3YtD
Fed Cuts Fail to Curb
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
Markets Overestimate Rate Hikes; PMI Says Otherwise
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
2‑Year Treasury Yield Jumps To
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Crisis Unites Yield and Oil: Correlations Converge
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q
Municipal Closed-End Funds Squeezed
Municipal Closed End Funds feeling the Rate complex heat of higher yields as well as credit risk pressures turning up.
Understanding Persistent Foreign Private Demand for U.S. Treasuries
This raises an important question -- namely how should we understand ongoing demand for Treasuries from private investors abroad? 1/ https://t.co/IVZNahIfEc
Treasury Yields Return to Trump Era, Signaling Market Anxiety
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
Ares Honors Few Redemptions, Claims Stakeholder Alignment
Ares: 11.6% redemption requests. Honored 5%. Called it “aligned with the best interests of all stakeholders.” The stakeholders who wanted their money back might define “best interests” differently.
Markets Revise Expectations for Price‑Stability‑Focused Central Banks
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
2‑Year Treasury Auction Weakest Since May 2024
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
War‑Driven Fed Outlook Ends Rate‑Cut Expectations
Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next). My @morningjoe Chart
Supply Pressure Keeps Rates Elevated Amid Fed Pause
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...
Rates Aren’t High—History Shows They’ve Just Risen
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
Rising Yields Don't Spell Trouble for the S&P
when they tell you that rising yields $TNX are bad for stocks $SPX, just tell'em they're wrong... https://t.co/xFoneNHg9i
Bessent Prioritizes 10-Year Treasury Over Brent Oil
"Bessent is obsessed with the 10-year. He can let the Brent Oil go up, but not the 10Y-Treasury." @perkinscr97 https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
Treasury Futures Surge: 3.5M Contracts Traded
Very Big Volume in Treasury Complex. Dimes (UST Classic 10 Yr Note Futures) have traded over 3.5 Million Contracts as of 1:40 pm EST.
EA's $15B Debt Oversubscribed, $25B Orders Signal Open Markets
$25B in orders on $EA’s $15B debt deal. Oversubscribed. Getting done. Capital markets are wide open… For the right issuers at the right price with the right Saudi SWF backstop.
Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
2‑Year Yield Slides to Session Low, Bears Struggle
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Treasury Auction Calendar Reveals Hidden Liquidity Map
This is a US Treasury auction schedule and it’s actually a liquidity map in disguise. Here’s the simple breakdown:
High Yields Fuel Doubt Over Trump's Iran Statement
4.5% bond yields are too much for Bessent so he probably drafted the Trump statement about Iran talks. Irant not buying it https://t.co/I8PHct99Kf
Higher Rates Worsen, Not Fix, Credit Problems
Question from a macro-ignorant options guy: Credit issues get better with sharply higher interest rates, right? https://t.co/UdR6NlJ6OR
UK Gilts Suffer Worst Month Since Truss Amid Oil Spike
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
Fed May Need Emergency 0.5% Rate Cut Amid Credit Slowdown
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
Markets Expect Four BOE Quarter‑Point Rate Hikes by 2026
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa