April ECB Rate Hike Possible if Data Warrants
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
Canada 5‑Year Yield Surges to 14‑Month High
it's 6am. i'm drinking black coffee. a @tradingview alert just buzzed in my pocket and appeared on my screen to tell me the Canada 5-year yield just broke out to 14-month highs > ~3.1%... 🧐 cool. https://t.co/IHj3aa1dV0
Rates Likely Hike Unless Growth Collapses, Says Sell‑Side
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
UK 10‑Year Gilt Near 2022 High as Yields Rise
At the back of the yield curve, yields are moving higher across the board, and the UK 10-year GILT yield is testing the cycle highs from 2022. UK and US yields generally move in similar fashion, so this is something...
High‑Yield Spreads Break Out of Historic Range
The chart below shows that high yield spreads appear to have broken out of its longstanding range. https://t.co/XDtyd2lmpz
Rate‑cut Hopes Fade as Credit Spreads Widen Dramatically
The heatmap below shows that expectations of further rate cuts have all but vanished. Meanwhile, stress in the credit markets continues to mount with both investment grade and high yield spreads making new wides, and the private credit sensitive equities...
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
S&P Threatens Downgrade Unless Funds Cap Redemptions
S&P to Cliffwater: if you keep honoring redemptions above 5%, we might downgrade you. So the choice is: gate your investors and keep your rating, or pay your investors and lose it. The product design is now working against itself.
Markets Flip: From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Late‑
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
US Debt Surges to $39T, Bond Market Turns Edgy
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
Wave Digital to Launch First Bitcoin‑Collateralized Rated Bond
"Wave digital is going to issue the first rated bond COLLATERALIZED by Bitcoin," says @EmanAbio https://t.co/oU2EeDw6Mf
10‑Year Treasury Real Yield Stalls at 1.89%
1.89 10 year tips real yield. Meh. Not much return yet in the benchmark asset on earth. Less than 3 months ago.
June ECB Rate Hike More Likely than April
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
New
I mean, why would they signal this when they just got ahead of the curve with their new forecasts ... I have two hikes in my fct (in June/July), but judging by the overall tone today and new forecasts I...
Polymarket Odds Mirror 2‑year Yield on 2026 Rate Cut
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
2‑Year Yield Jump Signals Imminent Fed Rate Hike
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
Investors Flock to Long‑term US Treasuries Today
It's funny that long term US treasuries is where people are putting their money today. They make more folks.
Senior Deals Earn Fees, Then Face Distressed Capital
The 2024 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get paid. The 2026 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get stuck with new money that’s now also distressed.
UK’s Repeated Crises Undermine Global Economic Stability
Why is the UK always the source of curve instability? Brexit, Truss and now this
UK Yields Surge, Highlighting Limited Fiscal Headroom
UK 2 year yield + 23bps UK 5 year yield +22bps UK 10 year yield +13bps About that fiscal headroom 🤔
US 2‑yr Yield Surges, Inflation Breakevens Spike Post‑War
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
Powell Could Remain FOMC Chair Until 2026
Remember my Manifesto? He’s legally elected FOMC Chair through December 31, 2026 regardless of who’s Chair of the Fed Board “Powell would also be eligible as a governor to remain in charge of rate-setting FOMC, potentially extending his influence over monetary...
Two‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 3.73%, Near 3‑Month High
Two-year Treasury yields up to 3.731% for the session and at some of the highest levels of the past three months https://t.co/yjJZJiv8JX
Powell’s Tepid Stance on Energy Prices Delays Rate Cuts
the significant part is Powell's relatively lukewarm support for looking through energy prices. 5 years of missing their target is clearly bothering them. They are gonna need to see genuine economic weakness to cut again
Powell's Low Job Breakeven Comment Pushes USTs Down
USTs pressured lower by Powell's comment that breakeven rate for new jobs is very low
Mid‑year Core Inflation Dip Could Push Rate Cuts to September
So mid-year is when we should start to see progress on core inflation. Probably resets “good news” cut clock to like September.
FOMC Keeps Short‑Run Rates, Raises Long‑Run Growth Outlook
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
Fed Holds Rates, Forecasts First Cut Only in 2026
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
FOMC Holds Rates, Keeps Forward Guidance Steady Amid Iran Uncertainty
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Fed Holds Rates, Core Inflation Forecast Rises
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
2‑Year Yield Above Fed Funds Signals No Rate Cuts
2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut. https://t.co/7odcQloUt0
2026 Rate Hike Appears First Time in Futures Market
A rate hike in 2026 is on the board for the first time in the futures market.
June Fed Cut Seen at 37% Probability Amid Powell’s Hold
Expectations are building for a rate cut There’s a 37% probability the June FOMC will cut 25bps Powell has been the last line holding rates as President Trump publicly pushed to lower June is also the first Fed meeting where Powell is not...
Trump's Influence Undermines Fed Credibility Amid Rate‑Cut Skepticism
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...
Rate Shifts Since Jan FOMC Concentrated at Front End
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
FOMC Day May Reset Market’s Minimal Cut Outlook
FOMC day and "extended pause" hedging pressuring whites. 2026 cuts down to 23 bps. Of course, Fed has an opportunity reset all of this via FOMC statement, SEP, and presser. Should be a fun day https://t.co/pMoJFfaIiY
10‑Year Yield Falls, Yet 10y10y Hits Record Risk Premium
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
Yield Curve Reflects Economic Quad Cycle, Not Daily Noise
YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs
Credit Markets Tighten as Qualtrics Loan Stalls
While credit markets are open to many companies, they're starting to close for others. Qualtrics, which makes online survey tools, had to ice a $5.3 billion loan and bond deal due to lack of investor appetite. https://t.co/DE0BfMnHYT
Germany's New Debt Fuels Handouts, Not Investment
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
Treasury Yields Test Support, Hinting at Recession Direction
US 30-Year Treasury Bond yields are testing key channel support levels—are we nearing an inflationary or deflationary recession? With the upcoming FED meeting and rising commodity prices, a breakdown here could dictate the market's next major move. Dive into the...
Widening Credit Spreads Signal Imminent Bear Market
The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader https://t.co/xiba9GU3z2
Bond Rally Masks Lack of True Risk Appetite
Bonds rallying while stocks bounce. $TLT up 0.8%. In a real recovery, bonds sell off as risk appetite returns. This looks like a flight to safety dressed up as a relief rally. $SPY https://t.co/azWo3xSslp
Forecasts Keep Rising, Yet Critics Call Them Irresponsible
Every month someone publishes a higher default forecast. > Fitch: 5.8% actual > Morgan Stanley: 8% > UBS: 15% worst case Every month someone in the industry calls it irresponsible.
Fed's Inflation View to Steer Near‑term Rate Path
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
Funds Buy UK Gilts, Betting Market Misreads BOE
UK funds snap up gilts in a bet that markets have the BOE all wrong https://t.co/FFHExPNhxC https://t.co/0e6cHNIwPe
Refinancing Wall: An Ever-Present Market Reality
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
Rate Hike Odds Surpass Cuts for First Time
The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut. A month ago, no one would have believed this. https://t.co/a9K0cTXJS1
Full Rate Cut Postponed Until March 2027.
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös