Record US Private Credit Defaults Drive Gold, Silver Rally
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
Rising
The dream comes with a price Awesome to see the demand All ZHCs will need treasuries
Fed Faces Tension Over Near‑Term Rate Cut Projections
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Fed's Treasury Holdings Surge, Echoing Past Funding Crises
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
Sell‑side Fades War‑Inflation Trade, Energy Seen as Growth Killer
Sell-side is fading the war-inflation trade in the front end. The consensus? High energy prices are a growth killer, not a long-term inflation driver. For now, the tape is happy to ignore them.
Oil Rebound, Flattening Curve Boost Equities; Watch $94 Oil
Oil shock is reversing (Strait clearing narrative), curve flattening continues (rate hikes priced in), credit widening (HY spread breakout), and rent collapse vindicates office REIT pressure. De-escalation moves favor equities; watch if $94 oil holds or bounces.
Private Credit Crisis Erases $265B Market Value
Private credit default rate just hit 5.8%. Apollo down 41%. Blackstone down 46%. Blue Owl down 66% from peak. $265 billion in market cap erased. This is not a headline. It's a crisis. https://t.co/Am5fwWlQPj
Markets Stay Calm on 5-Year Inflation Outlook
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
10-Year Yield Signals Bullish Trade Amid Accelerating Inflation
JBG 10yr Yield back to signaling Bullish TRADE and TREND @Hedgeye with #Quad3 Inflation Accelerating https://t.co/qkWdn2Fxoe
Oil Shock Drives French Bond Yields to 2011 High
The oil-price shock is taking a bigger toll on European markets, particularly in fixed income, making the ECB's meeting this week arguably more interesting than the Fed's. Yields on French 10-year bonds are back up to the highest since 2011....
Central Banks Pause Rates Amid Oil, Middle East Risks
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
Global Debt Surges to Record $348 Trillion, Crisis Deepens
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
Short‑End Bonds Spike on Energy Shock, Exposing Complacency
Short end bond curve (OUS) reaction to the energy shock, and the MASSIVE market complacency. https://t.co/FPG8npWCCQ
Treasury Yields Surge, Mortgage Rates Spike Amid Deficit Fears
Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation & Deficit Fears. US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields https://t.co/PBjZjAGHme https://t.co/VXWtZ8bNKw
Rising Junk Yields Signal Early Credit Weakness
Credit spreads are starting to move. Junk bond yields just hit a 3-month high at 7.34%, while high-yield spreads are trending higher in early 2026. That’s usually the first crack. Credit weakens → liquidity tightens → risk assets feel it next. Still early. Time...
US Debt Costs, Not Iran, Pose Existential Threat
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
TLT Poised to Breach Feb Low, Eye Historic Lows
$TLT - In just 2 weeks it's back to the February low due to the Iran war. If it beaks the February low(86.43) we will likely see a retest of the 2025 low and maybe even the 2023 low. https://t.co/Mm9e0lX2JM
Treasury Yields Surge, Inflation Concerns Resurface
"Inflation isn't a problem at all." Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺 One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈. https://t.co/Y10UC0y7lL
Gold and Stocks Tumble as Treasuries Rebound Begins
Gold selling off with stocks is necessary now for Treasuries to return. And this is playing out exactly as I argued it would. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade.
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates, yet Yields Rise
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
Investment-Grade Bonds Break Support, Signaling Market Stress
Investment-grade bonds just broke down from a 3-year support. These are early signs of stress in the bond market. Keep in mind that junk bonds are also trading well below their 200-day moving average now. Latest presentation: https://t.co/gDlMFjFGml https://t.co/UUDCngoUN8
Rate Volatility Rising; Oil Hikes Push Yields Higher
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
Bond Yields Rise on Moderate Oil Shock, Easing Doubtful
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
Fed Treasury Holdings Surge, Keeping Gold Bullish
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
Rising Energy Costs Deepen Fragile Economic Crisis
👇Looking for the catalyst? And it was already a fragile economic environment before the recent spike in energy costs (which will compound these dynamics below) And well said @wesbury …
Adapt Fast: Quad3 Yield Breakout Signals Immediate Action
In today's Early Look: "#Quad3 Bond Yield Breakout" The Signaling Process that I built changed. I changed with it. When lightning hits the golf course, do you want to debate last Tuesday's forecast — or get off the fairway? https://t.co/pZVQzeHQXQ
UST Yields Signal Bullish Curve Breakout, Review Ahead
UST Bond Yields signaling a Bullish TREND Breakout, across the curve - will review on The Macro Show https://t.co/MUbXHcltNR
Global Shocks Now Drive Half of Rate Changes
Global shocks now account for about half of the variation in interest rates, more than double their role in earlier decades. https://t.co/a8Dhi9Gxpu
Crude Surge Drives Bonds, Dollar, S&P 500 Movements
Nice chat with @julesaly looking at how the surge in crude oil is shaping price action in bonds, the US dollar, and the S&P 500. Today on @ausbiztv: https://t.co/8j3fNOcH2C
2‑Year Treasury Yields Spike to Highest Since August 2025
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
Fed May Cut Rates If Energy Prices Trigger Recession
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
President Urges Rare Intermeeting Rate Cut Before Scheduled Decision
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
BBB Spreads Tighten Since February, Still Well Below Past Peaks
BBB spreads are tighter now than where they were at the end of February. That might surprise a lot of people. Yes, spreads have widened some, but still nowhere near past levels. https://t.co/CvrdmgMyHp
Investor Creates $300B Bond Fund, Redefines Fixed Income
This credit investor built the world’s largest bond fund, running nearly $300B, and reshaped fixed-income investing forever.
Deutsche Bank Repeats Risky Credit Expansion Despite Past Missteps
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
Coercive A&E Dominates $38B Software Maturity Market
The software maturity wall isn't a secret. Everyone has this chart. $38B in 2028. Mostly B and below. These aren't getting refinanced at par. They're getting extended. The only question is whether the A&E is consensual or coercive. And if the last...
OBDC's 25% NAV Discount Highlights Stale Marks
Blue Owl says the marks are real. Every sell-side analyst has a Buy. Yet $OBDC trades at a 25% discount to NAV. Finally had a chance to go through the portfolio. Found exactly what you'd expect: stale marks, understated software exposure,...
US Long Bonds Have Halved Since 2020 Peak
U.S. long bonds $TLT are -51.7% over the last 6-years since peaking in 2020... https://t.co/5aCcOZfJZT
Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
Dollar, VIX, and Yields Surge Past 20‑Day EMA
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
UK 10‑Year Yields Top 4.7% Amid Oil Surge
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
German 10‑Year Yield Hits 2023 High Amid Inflation Fears
German 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2023 on inflation fears https://t.co/cvav2xEd32 via @highisland https://t.co/oIAhZehdiG
2026 Private Credit Funds Mirror 200
A Private Credit Fund of Funds in 2026 seems to rather closely resemble a CDO-squared in early 2007.
Bond Market Predicts Near‑Zero Chance of Fed Cut
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
Key Chart Sparks Discussion Among Factor Community
This could be an important chart. Discussing it today with members of the Factor community at https://t.co/gDeM5nTRIY $FGBL1! https://t.co/4KCxWZ88fE
Iran Targets US Markets; Conflict Strains Credit Channels
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
New Investors Learn Bonds Drop in Turmoil
it's kind of neat, in all seriousness, to think that there is a whole new crop of investors that are growing up "knowing" that bonds sell off during uncertainty, volatility & turmoil... while many (not just the grey among us)...
Cliffwater Blames Sentiment Amid $33B Fund Redemptions
Another one. Cliffwater facing 7%+ redemptions on their $33B fund. Their response: “Sentiment is driving the selloff more than fundamentals.” That’s what they all say. Right before the gates go up.