Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Avoid Annington Bonds Amid Repayment Shock Risk
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Cuts Rates, yet 10-Year Yields Climb
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Iran Tensions Fail to Boost Bonds, Rates Keep Climbing
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Bond Volatility Bet Hurts Markets, Boosts TW MK
Treasury (TLT) buyer 5000 December $89 straddles expecting bond volatility, tends to be bad for markets, good for TW MKTX
BlackRock Wipes Private Credit Loans to Zero in Three Months
Well well well... BlackRock marked a private credit loan at 100 cents on the dollar in Q3. By Q4, it was a big fat ZERO. Not 80. Not 50. ZERO. In 3 months. This is the second time $TCPC has done this recently....
Rising Oil Prices Force Fed to Pause, Trim 2026 Cuts
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
Yield Rise Minimal Despite Growing Middle East Tensions
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
10-Year Yield Stagnates
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
Europe Faces Inflation Shock Twice US Level
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
Short‑Term Cash: Treasury MM or HYSA, Not Stocks
"I need to park $50k of cash for 12 months. What are my options?" > $VUSXX (Vanguard Treasury MM Fund) or any Treasury equivalent. State/local tax exempt, 3.63% yield > HYSA (FDIC insured, ~3%) Don’t invest it, unless 12 months turns into 12...
ADP Beats Slightly, Minor Revision; Treasuries Unmoved
ADP with a slight beat along with small negative revision to previous month. Nothingburger. USTs yawn
Inflation Nowcast Accelerates, Raising Q3 Bond Volatility
LIVE Shot of our Inflation Nowcast Accelerating into #Quad3 in Bond Market Volatility terms https://t.co/cTSAqYA6P7
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
Fitch Downgrades Paramount‑Skydance Debt to Junk After WBD Deal
Paramount Skydance Debt Downgraded to Junk Status by Fitch Ratings Following Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/bBiUN3grT5 via @variety
Markets Price Supply Shock, Real Rates Rise
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
Allocators Swap BCRED Redemptions for Discounted BXSL
Allocators are funding a logical switch trade: Redeeming BCRED at NAV to buy $BXSL at an -11% discount to NAV. Look for this dynamic to occur between every other private credit fund with both a non-traded and listed BDC.
Bond Volatility Stocks TW, MKTX Signal Market Trouble
Bond Volatility winners $TW $MKTX also always a good market hedge / indicator of trouble coming
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
Fed Sees Stable Labor, Cautious Optimism, Future Rate Cuts
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Wider Term Premia Needed to Hedge Bond‑equity Shocks
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
Sharp Dollar Rally Threatens Treasury Market Stability
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
S&P Puts PSKY Ratings on CreditWatch, Negative Outlook
Just in: S&P Global Ratings placed all its ratings on global diversified media company PSKY, including the 'BB+' issuer credit rating and our issue-level ratings on its debt, on CreditWatch with negative implications
Oil Surges 8‑9% as Gasoline Climbs, Yields Steady
Oil jumping to 8-9% gains this afternoon.. gasoline futures up 12 cents. US stocks ~unch with the 10yr 3bps off the HoD.. now near 4.04% https://t.co/XkTx1P5k8G
Mortgage Rates Drop a Year
BACK TO A 6-HANDLE The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.12% Same day last year: 6.74% ------------------ 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.06% Spread today: 206 bps
10
$TNX Monthly. Another bounce off 4% (40 on this chart) for Rates on 10-Year Note. Long-term continues multi-year narrowing triangle. https://t.co/gUtiLgqcs9
10-Year Treasury Yield Volatility Reverses Haven Trade
10-Year US Treasury Yield Flipflops, Spikes by 14 Basis Points to 4.07%, after Plunging to 3.93%, amid Massive Volatility. It undid more than the entire haven trade that had started on Thursday and blew through the hot PPI inflation on Friday https://t.co/mjFPIIuVi8...
US Haven Status Threatened, yet Likely to Fade
'For now, though, this serves as another warning sign to US authorities that their haven status is in peril'. I don't think this is any more right now than it was a year ago in other circumstances, or before that....
Duration Fails to Sustain Any Meaningful Bids
Most telling thing about this episode so far is complete inability of duration to hold anything resembling a bid.
Belly Bonds Sell Off; 5-Year Yields Ease
Non-stop selling of the belly since futures opened last night with 5s easing up on the curve after a historic run. https://t.co/7GuCuTfHeW
Ten-Year Yields Rise Above 4% Amid Brief Conflict Reaction
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
10-Year Yield Flat, MACD Histogram Declines Four Weeks
U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have been trading in a sideways range for years... #MACDhist ticking down for 4 weeks in a row... https://t.co/LTKir2ZNyJ
LBO Debt Market Faces $20B Nerve‑Testing Stress Test
The LBO debt market is freaking out. Here comes a $20B test of nerves https://t.co/MiXTnEB2pK
Crude Jumps 8% As
Not a terribly surprising open. Crude up 8%. SPooz off 1% and USTs up solidly bid but selling into best levels.
Aussie 10s
Aussie 10s have on average traded 67bps cheap to UST 10s over the past few weeks. Currently trading 4.58 which suggest UST 10s should open around 3.91, 3 bps richer (that's like 6-7 ticks)
T‑Bills Avoid State Taxes, Boost Long‑Term Returns
Interest from HYSA is taxed at federal AND state/local level. But interest from T-Bills is only taxed at the federal level, saving you anywhere from 0-13% in state/local taxes. T-bills also generally have better yields. Small adjustments can make a big difference over...
China's Treasury Sales Hit Lowest Since 2008
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Gold‑Silver Collapse Could Revive Treasuries as Safe Haven
Will the Gold and Silver Crash Bring Back Treasuries as the Risk-Off Trade of Choice? Read here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/will-the-gold-and-silver-crash-bring
10‑Year Yield Falls 34bps; Rate Cut Looms?
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
Mortgage Rates Mirror 10‑year Yield Plus Spread
The slow dance with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates has been happening for decades. You just add the mortgage spread variable here, too https://t.co/gavjysTwDz
Bond Rally Threatened by Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Private Credit Crash Already Evident in BDC NAV Discounts
Many calling/hoping for a crash in private credit. While loan performance has mostly been ok, secondary prices tell a different story. A crash has already happened in the listed BDC market, with NAV discounts previously only seen during Covid and the GFC,...
TLT Breaks Yearly Pivot, Bullish Toward 93.07
$TLT - Closed the month above the yearly pivot at 88.18. The next upside target is the 1st yearly resistance at 93.07. The 2nd yearly resistance is 98.98. It looks bullish at the moment but you never know how high...
Druckenmiller Bets on Higher Rates, Cuts AI, Values Sizing
Key takeaways from Druckenmiller - Sees potential for higher long rates thanks to productivity growth - Out of the AI trade at this point - What he learnt from Soros was sizing - Visualizes the future 18-24 months out - Sells if valuation becomes...
Global Debt Hits Record High, Driven by China, US
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
Rates Slip Even as Inflation Heat Rises
Why did rates and bond yields drop today despite a hot inflation report? #Labor over #inflation. #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
MBS Spread Re
After the White House confirmed that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac would increase their retained MBS by $200B, the 'spread'—which had already been compressing—slipped sub 200 bps for the first time in more than 3 years Today is first +200 bps spread since...
Credit Crisis Chatter Spikes, Targeting APO, KRE, KKR
The noise around incoming credit crisis is picking up significantly today .. look APO, KRE, KKR etc