Oracle's CDS Gains Vanish After Equity Funding Shift
Pretty remarkable that the “we’re raising half the money via equity” improvement in Oracle’s 5Y CDS completely reversed (and then some) so quickly https://t.co/E8Qzqv4pMx
Sticky PPI Keeps Rates High, Drives Yield Decline
The PPI is not falling, it has become sticky. It means rates stay higher. That will slow things down. Thus bond yields are falling. Makes sense? God knows https://t.co/XxE0jqRJ3L
Fed's Massive Balance Sheet, Not Warsh, Needs Trimming
"Kevin Warsh Isn’t Crazy, the Fed’s Big Balance Sheet Is" The obvious path to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is to go back to a corridor system. It worked for over 100 years as @josephsternberg points out. The problem: the establishment...
Questioning Inflation Outlook: Is 10‑Year Rally a Flight‑to‑Quality?
@jimcramer I dont understand your response to the inflation print. It is not positive. And couldnt the short term strength in the 10 year (something you just mentioned) be a flight to quality with rising credit conerns and...
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Bullish Equity Outlook
Scott @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport kindly forward this to Slink, @saraeisen (who has expressed the view that inflation is declining) and your panelists who mostly insist as part of their bullish stance on equities that inflation has been conquered. From Peter Boockvar...
Real Yields Plunge, Not Breakeven Inflation, Despite AI Hype
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
Cool PPI Print May Lower Yields, Boost Tech
February 27, 2026 📊 Insight: PPI at 8:30 = inflation read for producers. Cooler print could push yields lower and support growth/tech. Hot number likely pressures rates higher and weighs on high-multiple names. Watch $DXY and 10Y reaction first 5–10 mins. Economic...
Treasury Yields Hit Year Low as Credit Spreads Surge
Something is happening in bond markets. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen to the lowest this year, while credit spreads are widening to the highest this year.
Equities Slip, Yields Dip Below 4%, Dollar Softens
Friday: Equity futures lower again, treasury yields down by 2-3 bps with ten-year yield dipping below 4%. Dollar softer. PPI due out today.
MTD Returns Negatively Correlate 41% with Daily Returns
Quick proof of theory: MTD return as of y'days close has a -41% correlation with today's return. Statistically significant relationship at the 0.01% level. https://t.co/5nNOjJXagQ
Month‑end Rebalancing Triggers Rare Feb Fixed‑income Sell
Month end rebalancing has slight fixed income SELLING after today's move. That's rare for Feb since new 10yr and 30yr UST issuance usually leads to buying for index rebalancing. It's really all about the equity underperformance MTD. https://t.co/JSSOj5jEOD
Balancing Rates Drives Predictable Credit Cycles
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Fast 7-Year Auction Turn; Feb Extension Increases Friday
It will be a quick turn from today's 7y auction to month end tomorrow. Reminder Feb duration extension will be larger Friday as it always is in a refunding month.
UBS Predicts Private Credit Defaults Surpass 2008 Crisis Level
UBS's worst-case default rate for private credit is 15%. Up from 13% a month ago. For context, the 2008 leveraged loan default rate peaked at 10.8%. UBS is now modeling a scenario worse than the financial crisis for private credit. And they...
2s10s Yield Curve Turns From Bull Steepener to Bear Flattener
anyone care that the 2s10s yield curve went from a bull steepener to a bear flattener this month?
Higher Jobless Claims and Fed Speech Dominate Thursday
Economic Calendar for Thurs. Feb 26th 8:30am - Initial jobless claims: Expected 216k; Prior 206k - Continuing Jobless Claims: Expected 1.86M; Prior 1.869M 10:00 - Fed’s Bowman speaks 1:00pm - 7 Year Note Auction: Prior 4.018%
IMF Confirms US Fiscal Boost Exceeds Estimates
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
USDJPY‑Yield Spread Correlation Rebounds to Strong Positive
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
Rich 5s Cheapen Ahead of Auction; Yields Rise
Not surprising to see some cheapening of very rich 5s before the auction later today. 2s5s10s up a few bps from Monday's Citrini low. Interesting to see if the move has legs post-auction https://t.co/ZQjjNm6NwT
US Treasury Borrowing No Longer Cheap Despite 4% Yield
There's lots of buzz about 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4%. But when you look at this yield vs US peers - hedging those yields back into US Dollars - the US picture isn't nearly so sanguine. The days when...
Bonds Poised to Surprise in 2026 as Growth Cools
Bonds may be setting up the surprise of 2026. Equities own the narrative. Duration owns the asymmetry. If growth cools, fixed income becomes leadership. Framework here: https://t.co/NWtS4ggYI5 @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap
AI‑Driven Revenue Drop Threatens Sovereign Bonds, Raises Capital Costs
This is an incredibly thought-provoking global macro piece from @infraa_. If the gov't revenue decline from AI disruption of white collar workers isn't counter-balanced by taxation from AI productivity, we could be tip-toeing into a potential Sovereign Bond Implosion....
AI Disruption Could Trigger $420 Bn Credit Default Wave
UBS’s Matt Mish lays out a scenario for credit involving “rapid, aggressive AI disruption.” US high yield, leveraged loan & private credit default rates could rise to 3–6%, 8–10%, & 14–15%, respectively: Mish. “Defaults could approach ~$420bn, w/losses of roughly...
Private Credit Boom Delays Maturity Wall, Now Cracks Appear
What my post from December 2023 overlooked was the massive expansion in private credit. Private credit stepped in aggressively to fill financing gaps, refinance maturities, and provide bridge capital, delaying the "wall of maturities" many buyers were eager to capitalize on. Now...
Yield Curve Shifts From 2023 Inversion to 2025 Flattening
Chart shows the shape and evolution of the yield curve (3-Month Treasury yields (blue) and 10-Year Treasury yields (red)) from Feb 2023 to Feb 2026. It's been a wild ride from the extreme inversion in 2023 to normalization beginning Q4 2025....
2‑Year Auctions Shine During Nasty Treasury Roll Week
2y auctions during roll week are usually more interesting esp when TU (ZT) roll is this nasty
Despite March Weakness, Long‑term Muni Yields Stay Attractive
"March has historically been the weakest month for munis over the past 30 years. Even so, we continue to favor the long end of the muni curve, where tax-equivalent yields remain attractive." -Larry Adam, Raymond James
Turkey’s BIST Soars 24% Amid Inflows, Loose Policy
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
Weighted Avg 2.3% Signals Bullish Breakout Over CBO
The probability weighted average of both @jasonfurman and the survey average is 2.3%*, i.e. solid breakout. That's bullish; CBO is at 1.8%. *(Assumes 5% for the >4% phase transition scenario. I figure probabilities of higher figures quickly fall to...
Widening Spreads Signal Potential Prolonged Market Shakeout
Truth: “If spreads keep widening and banks keep lagging, this is more than a one day shakeout. If they stabilize, this was the market resetting positioning and rotating and not the start of a whole new regime.”
Annual Returns Converge Across Correlations, Volatility Varies
I vibe coded a widget to show the idea of the blog post below. It simulates yield curve evolutions and equity market returns. Then it plots the distribution of annualized returns and volatilities over a given horizon using...
Mortgage Spreads Push Rates Under 6% Despite 10‑yr Yield
#mortgagespreads have allowed rates to get below 6% without the 10-year yield below 4% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Mortgage Rates
5-handle The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 5.99% Same day last year: 6.89% ---------------------- 10-year treasury yield today: 4.03% Spread today: 196 bps
China Swapped US Treasuries for Commodities via BRI
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Muni Flows Surge, Highlighting HNW Investor Appetite
Small sector (~3% of USD fixed income), but wild relative flows into munis indicative of HNW demand. https://t.co/tEbLFk9ZiL
10‑Year Yield Drops as Fed Begins Rate Cuts
U.S. 10-year yields $TNX with all the @federalreserve increase rate decreases (green circles) since the latest (rate dropping) cycle started in Sep '24... https://t.co/Tch3MSks2c
Fed's “Open Market” Is Actually Managed, Not Open
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
5‑Year Treasuries Poised to Benefit From AI Disruption
5-year UST becoming the primary beneficiary of AI-driven disruption. Market pricing a 'lower for longer' rate environment, richening the belly. 2s5s10s 'fly https://t.co/7Rs11vfQp5
Walller Signals Potential Rate‑Cut Pause Amid Improving Data
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Waller's March Cut Unlikely; FOMC Odds Near Zero
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
Waller Says March Rate Move Hinges on Feb Payroll
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
T‑Bills Yield Over 3%—Skip Low‑Rate Savings
The national average savings account interest is 0.39%. Yet T-bills are paying ~3.6% and no state/local taxes. Can buy them from TreasuryDirect or your broker. Or Treasury ETF (e.g $VBIL) or Treasury MMF (e.g $VUSXX) pay ~3.64%. Don't let your savings earn pennies.
Japanese Life Insurers Face $86B Bond Losses
⚠️WHAT IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN? The 4 largest Japanese life insurers, Nippon Life, Dai-ichi Life, Sumitomo Life, and Meiji Yasuda, had a combined ¥13.2 trillion ($86 billion) in unrealized losses on government bonds at the end of 2025. Losses have risen over...
Economists Hide Real Risks of U.S. Bond Dumping
Everyone's worried about foreign countries dumping U.S. bonds, but here's what mainstream economists won't tell you about government finances. The link to the complete presentation is in the comments.
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
Fade the Belly Below -90; Auctions May Reverse
Both short and long term, this is a good level to fade the belly with the curve-wide 'fly (2s5s30s) back below -90. Mid-curve auctions next week could trigger a reversal https://t.co/q33LIbWZ5V
Fed Minutes Reveal Mixed Inflation, AI Boosts Productivity
In this week's #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I talk about Fed minutes, mixed signals on inflation & unemployment, and weakness in the survey data. Liz Ann & @KevRGordon discuss the latest GDP report and the impact of tariffs, AI-driven investment and...
IEEPA Threat Raises Tariff Ceiling, Shifts Negotiation Dynamics
While 15% is close to what many countries ended up negotiating with Trump, he invoked IEEPA to threaten much higher rates, providing powerful leverage. If 15% is an effective ceiling (outside 301/232 actions), that changes the bargaining dynamic.
Yield Curve Inverted 43 Months, Recession Still Unseen
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
Yield Curve Ste
USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi