Distressed 9x‑levered PIK Bond Faces Buyer Vacuum
Just curious, but when you have an 11% PIK, cov-lite bond on a corporate that’s 9x levered, who’s the logical buyer when there is forced selling?? Like can this go from 99 offered to 10 bid in a single trade…??
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
STRC’s 11.5% Yield Halves FIRE Retirement Timeline
We have discovered corporate bonds. If you take on more risk, you get a higher return wow
Fed Rate Path Repriced: Terminal Rate 3
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
Credit Market Unease Signals Risk‑off Pressure on Stocks
IG credit not happy in here (LQD/IEF) and that tends to be risk-off for equities. https://t.co/M9wDvl27Od
Rate Pressure Drives Treasury Yields Higher
Tplex: Rate complex under pressure UST 10 Yr Notes 4.20% +6.5bp's Dimes 112-00+ down 14/32's
Options‑implied Fed Hike Odds Surge to 23%
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
AI Giant Issues $25B Debt to Boost Stock
The AI poster child is issuing $25B in debt to buy back its own stock. Not to invest in AI. Not to acquire capabilities. To support the share price. That's the strategy. $CRM
Rate Cuts Surge, yet Long-Term Yields Climb
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Treasury Prices Plummet, Rates Surge, Bear
$TLT Monthly. Treasuries have gone down in virtual straight line (and rates up) since initial launch on Iran two Fridays ago. Long-term still strongly bearish. Risk of wipeout https://t.co/0SPsw7B88t
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG
UST 2s Offer Yield Above SOFR Funding Rate
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
Today's Yield Predicts Bond Returns with 97% Accuracy
Want to know where bond returns are headed? Just look at today’s yield. Over the last 50 years, the correlation between starting yields and forward 7-year returns is 97%. Higher yields = higher future returns. Lower yields = lower future returns. Bond investing is just...
USTs Slide as Record IG Issuance Fuels Supply Pressure
Oddly USTs under pressure ahead of what is expected to be a soft Feb CPI (0.2 core) print. Supply seems to be part of it. Yesterday's 11-deal IG issuance ($66B) was the biggest single session on record.
German 10‑Year Auction Falls Short, Yield Climbs to 2.89%
Good Morning from Germany, where today’s 10y govt bond auction technically failed. Of the €5bn on offer, investors submitted bids for only €4.5bn. In the end, just €3.8bn was placed, at a yield of 2.89%; noticeably higher than the 2.73%...
Repo Stress Forces UST Basis Trades to Unwind, Cut Duration
Macro: leveraged basis/swap trades in USTs unwind as repo stress. Drivers: regulation, supply surge, margin calls. Risk: disorderly USTs and deleveraging. Trade: reduce duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
High‑Yield Bonds Still Holding Amid Tight Spreads
$HYG hasn't cracked yet. Credit spreads are tight while equities chop and oil spikes. High yield is either the smartest market in the room or the last one to figure it out. https://t.co/v5eGL2YwEZ
Salesforce to Issue $25B Debt for Share Buyback
Salesforce $CRM is reportedly planning to sell as much as $25 billion worth of debt in order to fund its share buyback plan - Bloomberg
2026 Risk Assets Outlook: Bonds, China Stocks Shine
OUT NOW - Michael Howell @crossbordercap on: - why he expects 2026 to be bad for risk assets - why he's bullish bonds & Chinese stocks - Gold, Bitcoin, & yield curve, and "Turbulence" phase of Liquidity cycle Apple🔊https://t.co/7bjoJLeYdJ Spotify📽️https://t.co/plpNPVQicu https://t.co/1mD9VJPm5e
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 28% After Iran Tensions
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
10‑Year Yield Surges, Treasuries Lose
10-year yield at 4.15%. Up 18 bps in a week. Bonds selling off into a growth scare. That's not supposed to happen. When Treasuries stop being a safe haven, the playbook is broken. https://t.co/yIChc2y0aR
Yield Curve Decoupled, Then Flattened After 10‑year Spike
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
Record Corporate Debt Signals Potential Credit Bubble
IS THE CREDIT BUBBLE HERE? Record Corporate Debt Explained | Trading Zone Ep. 94 https://t.co/saPNeSSafk
Record Corporate Debt Sparks Credit Bubble Concerns
IS THE CREDIT BUBBLE HERE? Record Corporate Debt Explained | Trading Zone Ep. 94 https://t.co/22SJSkFetj
Global Bonds Tumble as Oil Spikes on Middle East Conflict
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Bonds across the globe sank on Monday as a rapidly worsening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran briefly pushed oil prices near $120, heightening investor fears over inflation which they bet may prompt European central banks to...
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 40% Amid Oil Surge
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Japan Lifts YCC; Iran Targets UST Market Vulnerability
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Central Banks Stay Hawkish
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
Central Banks Miss Inflation Targets Five Years, War Delays Cuts
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
2026 Carry Trade Plans Faltered as Curves Flattened
Basically; 2026 was supposed to be the year where you bought carry in 26 STIR contracts, and cash bond curves would steepen. Best laid plans and all that.
10‑Year Note Futures
10 Yr Note Futures fall again (-13.5/32's to 112-00+) Since tagging 114 and seeing the UST Active 10 Yr Note fall under 4%, it has been a steady reversal aided by the war in the Middle East. https://t.co/aX13QG6ARo
Risk‑off Defies Norms as Yields Stay Flat‑up
Puzzling. In risk-off market yields go down, but they're flat to up, globally (so not "sell-America"). Central banks seen as less likely to ease. True, until you get non-linearities and recessions (e.g. summer of 2008, oil up sharply and ECB...
Low Reserves Raise Borrowing Costs and Default Risk
Isn't it likely that countries in fiscal distress find it hard to borrow, have to pay high default premia, and run down their reserves like everything else?
Junk Bond Drop Signals Real Economic Stress
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Secondary Market Signals Private Credit Defaults Over 20%
The thing is, the current secondary market prices of liquid private credit vehicles (BDCs) are implying a default rate north of 20%, far in excess of anything experienced during the GFC and greater than UBS’s draconian “worst case” scenario
Investors Likely to Dump Public Credit Amid Bearish CDX HY
This has to be one of the most bearish charts I’ve ever seen for CDX HY. One can argue that they won’t be as correlated as they’ve always been, but ‘this time is different’ may be wrong . I think...
Low‑volatility Tricks Fail: Loss Frequency × Severity Constant
Gundlach’s law of financial physics: The frequency of losses times the severity of losses equals a constant. Implication: do not invest in artificially “low volatility” strategies.
Junk Bonds Diverge, Near Support
Junk bonds diverging with stocks and working on a break of support, of a bearish descending triangle at (1) $JNK $HYG $SPY https://t.co/qGVRKZxUKf
2s5s Rebounds Sharply After Weak NFP Data
2s5s had been under relentless pressure in the past month (AI disruption and all) but finally a surge steeper after that weak a&& NFP print https://t.co/fYJGpdBc5q
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit April Low, Treasury Yields Diverge
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
Current Curve Rerating Signals Faster Resolution Than 2022
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
EU Bond Yields Converge; Ideal Moment for Euro Debt
The yields on bonds of pretty much all EU member states are moving closer to Germany’s. This is the right time for common euro debt, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/ZN3JVBYKDo via @opinion https://t.co/fSn1i0CbMd
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Cutting Cycle Ends
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
10
4.17% on the 10yr... highest since Feb 12... remember it gapped down to 3.93% to start the week (Sunday night) https://t.co/fDNCy0A6lE
Fed
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
Dollar Rises, Treasuries Fall: Safety Flight Redefined
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
Record Hedge Activity Signals Unprecedented Investor Fear
🚨Investors are hedging against a market crash at a record pace: Combined put open interest in credit ETFs, $HYG, $LQD, $JNK, and $BKLN, plus call open interest in the Treasury ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 15.9 million contracts. This has...
UST Funding Strain Grows as 30‑Year Swap Spread Hits
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr