High‑Yield Spreads Hit 9‑Month High, Massive Fund
"High-yield spreads rose to a 9-month high this week, and we’ve seen the largest weekly withdrawals from high-yield mutual funds since Liberation Day" --JPM
USTs Open Rough; Front-End Pressure
Nasty open for USTs with front-end under the most pressure. 2y futs off 3.5 ticks
Oil Shock Could Trigger Bond Market Turmoil, Warns FT
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
Long‑term UST Holders Lost ~80% Purchasing Power
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
Imminent Treasury Supply Surge Threatens Auction Failure
This is maybe not this week or even next month, but this is a failed auction waiting to happen. #TreasurySupply
Spotting Double Convexity in Undervalued Delaware Market
There’s having convexity. And then there’s having convexity on top of convexity. The edge is seeing it before the path is obvious. In the rearview mirror, returns always look smaller. I may have discovered a corner of the market that is oddly...
Fannie, Freddie Flood Market with Big MBS Bids
A bit of weekend announcement aimed at stabilising soaring mortgage rates FANNIE, FREDDIE PLACE LARGE BIDS FOR MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES
Markets Shift to Tightening, Cuts Delayed Until 2027
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe
Rising Short‑term Rates Threaten High‑debt Nations
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
Rate Cuts Improbable This Year, 20% Chance in December
Last week I said the chance of a rate cut according to the polymarket was more than likely not happening Some thought I was wrong Needless to say no rate cut happened I need you all to pay attention… this ENTIRE YEAR (as...
Rate‑cut Odds Plunge From Near Certainty to 14.5%
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
Treasury Yields Spike, Curve Uninverts, Signaling Rate Hike
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
Rising Risks: Rate Hikes and Aggressive Cuts Both Escalate
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Long‑Term Treasuries Outperform Stocks, Contrarian Bond Bet Wins
Long-term Treasuries are up 4.60% this year. The S&P 500 is down 3.24%. The most consensus short trade in finance for three years is quietly winning. Nobody writes bond bull pieces. Nobody is crediting their bond allocation. But TLT has outperformed SPY...
Markets Expect Fed Rate Hike Over Cut This Year
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
US 10‑Yr Yields Rise, 20‑Yr Near 5% Mark
UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.
Rising Junk‑Bond/Treasury Gap Threatens Stock Bulls
"A big distribution pattern is carving out in the Junk Bonds vs. Treasuries ratio. A breakdown here would be the last thing stock market bulls want to see." -Alfonso De Pablos, All Star Charts
TLT Hits New Yearly Low, Eyes Low‑80s Support
$TLT - Made a new low for the year and is headed back to the low 80s. The next major support is the May 2025 low at 83.30. https://t.co/b3Nva3eIMx
Trump’s GSE MBS Boost Fades, Mortgage Rates
All the manipulation impact of Trump "Instructing the GSE's" to buy 200BN in MBS has disappeared as OAS is now higher. Throw in higher vol and modestly higher 10's and you get higher mortgage rates. https://t.co/NKfe9Jq3vg
Germany's Real 10‑Year Yields Turn Positive After Decade
Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y govt bond yields have risen >3%, their highest level since 2011. The recent increase is driven disproportionately by higher long-term inflation expectations – meaning real 10y yields have fallen from 1.35% to 0.77%. The chart...
10‑Year Yield Near 4.4% Sparks Epic Week Ahead
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
Bonds Outpace Stocks in 2026, Jan Trade Succeeds
$TLT is up 1.10% YTD. $SPY is down 3%. Bonds are beating stocks in 2026. The same trade nobody wanted in January is the only one working in March. https://t.co/8oVDeeOfUe
Bonds Outperform Stocks in 2026—Which Signal Wins?
Bonds are beating stocks in 2026. The 20+ Year Treasury is up while the S&P 500 is down 3%. The same trade nobody wanted in January is the only one working in March. After three years of pain, Treasury investors are...
1‑Year Breakeven Spike Signals Stress, Not True Inflation
This is not proof that investors expect CPI above 5% @MikeDorning 1-year breakeven inflation spike is a stress gauge distorted by energy shock, liquidity, and risk premia Important signal? Yes. Clean inflation forecast? No #Inflation #Bonds #Breakevens #Oil #Markets
Avoid General Obligation Municipals in CA, IL, NY
People ask about muni’s and I typically don’t have much to say. But now, looking at the deficits caused by absurd spending, and tax policies accelerating revenue erosion, I can say avoid all General Obligation muni’s in California, Illinois &...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since July
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Global Yield Spike Persists After Consolidation, No Single Cause
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
Treasury ETF Faces Near-Worst 3‑Week Drop Since 2022
$GOVT Treasury ETF down 2.2% last 3 weeks... that's almost its worst plunge since March 2022... which was a historic drop... @stockcharts https://t.co/AR2FifcXyx
Markets See Fed Hikes, Hormuz Shock Fuels Inflation Risk
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
Fed Cuts Spark Long‑term Rate Divergence, Now at 5%
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
US Bond Yields Surge to Highest Levels Since 2023
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
TNX Breaks Triangle, Bullish Spike Ahead
$TNX Monthly. Head-fake lower last month. Surge higher this month. At apex of multi-year triangle. This is ideal bullish setup for rates on 10-Year to explode higher https://t.co/aCdWZY5Kd9
Bessent's No‑Term Debt Plan: Mixed Results So Far
So how has the plan by @SecScottBessent to not term out the debt and keep rolling bills worked out?
Rising 10y10y Yield Shows Cost of Fiscal Recklessness
The 10y10y forward Treasury yield (red) is rising towards its historical highs. If only we'd brought our deficit under control after COVID, then we'd now have more gas in the tank for emergency spending. But we didn't. Reckless fiscal policy...
Foreign Investors' Treasury Buying Slows to 4Q19 Low
"Foreign investors added $28bn of Treasuries in 4Q25, the softest quarterly pace of demand since 4Q19" --JPM
Rising 10‑Year
Last year, a 4.50%-4.60% on the 10-year yield got the White House To Blink, with stocks falling. Now higher oil prices 🧙♂️🪄
10‑Year Yield Jumps
10y yield spikes as odd of rate hike before end of the year increases by 50% … Jerome Powell was right all along 😂
10-Year Yield Climbs Steadily, Market Bets Tighter Longer
10Y yield is still ripping higher in a straight line from that brief 3 handle tease. Market says, tighter for longer. $TNX $IEF https://t.co/dbZrSwrwwr
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Bond Yields Surge Globally, Curve Bears Flattening
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
10-Year Yield Hovers at 4.3%, Poised for Breakout
The 10-year couldn't close above 4.3% yesterday, but is trying again this morning. Lot of whipsaws (in both directions) with this chart, but this would sure look like a breakout https://t.co/17G6Y8TtLa
Local Gilt Issues Can Lift Global Yields
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
Canada 5‑Year Yields Surge, Hinting at Rate Hikes
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
Europe/UK Rate Hike Likely: 12% April Odds
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
Markets Price Fed Rate Hike, No Cuts Expected
For for first time this cycle, a small rate increase by the Fed is now priced in by year end, 12%. And no rate cuts anymore
UK Yield Peaks 2008 High Amid Rising Oil Prices
Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL https://t.co/boVD8nEW6E
Reeves, Miliband, Bell Call For
Reeves, Miliband and Bell will look at Gilts and go ... we need to spend more and raise taxes.