Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
AI disruption is hitting IG credit spreads, not just stock prices. Concentrix: BBB-rated, 455,000 call center employees. Paid 130bps concession to refinance. Stock down 24% last week. Spreads doubled in February. Credit markets pricing obsolescence before it shows up in earnings.
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
Bond futures well bid again as the curve flattens aggressively with front end whites all red. https://t.co/d4dX0TgauD
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
The best macro trade of the past 5 years was Warren buffet’s Japanese bond issuance imo. Got him short the currency, short rates all while he was long the equities (trading houses).
After jobs and CPI, mkt has ~2.5 Fed rate cuts discounted this year. 2-10 yr curve flattened back-to-back weeks for first time since Oct. 10 yr yield 3-month low. Be prepared for next week. See...
Pemex is back in the bond market after six years — and demand was strong. This doesn't signal confidence in Pemex. Buyers are really underwriting the Mexican state. https://t.co/YRGXmzi4aW #Pemex #Mexico #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #SovereignRisk #DebtMarkets #EmergingMarkets
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Every BDC quarterly letter should just say “we are choosing not to mark this down and you can’t make us.”
I believe this is a false rally. Look at Utilities. That's defensive positioning. Same with long duration Treasuries. We remain in a risk-off condition for now.
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and...
It has been a painful few weeks for the short belly crowd (moi included) as 5s has been kinging up on the curve. Warsh nomination and slow AI disruption have been the main culprits https://t.co/3pqYjTV3QZ
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the...
🆓 Thursday links: tight credit spreads, fast food woes, and who is paying the cost of tariffs. https://t.co/NOuKmm78S8 image: https://t.co/Lhs7cz5vWL https://t.co/nj3y6g7t8i
By 2036, the U.S. will spend $2.14 TRILLION a year on interest payments, versus just $1 trillion today. U.S. taxpayers are being taken to the cleaners. They’re paying for yesterday’s government largesse and receiving nothing for it. https://t.co/xMUu3S9H8I
Risk off upending most auction setups as US Treasury gets ready to dump some serious duration into a strong rally across the curve with belly leading. https://t.co/vNjhvRIzxH
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
Is Dedollarisation driving bond yields lower or is social media pushing the wrong story? A deep dive into dollar strength, Fed policy, gold, and global trade dynamics. Full breakdown inside 👉️ : https://t.co/qdYNFtTIhV https://t.co/rMDnvdP14u
If the EU were only able to issue its own debt, imagine the possibilities… Yeah, imagine if you gave EU bureaucrats the power to spend an astronomical amount in addition to its power to regulate https://t.co/KAqbSOG71R
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
“Business Development Companies” have been hammered in the recent software selloff. Alphaville dug into the data of some of the biggest ones to find out if software creditors are in trouble. https://t.co/ybVLHwLoCi https://t.co/AMQPhflF5J
Google issuing a 100-year bond to fund AI capex. Remember JC Penney’s 100-year bond? Issued in 1997. Bankrupt in 2020. At least they got their basis back in coupons.
$TLT : The Average True Range (orange) is now the lowest in over 15 years. Something has to give. Might the plummeting @truflation readings be a clue to which direction a breakout might occur? https://t.co/0pEENxYpXs
IG credit spreads wider +4bps from late-Jan yet HY wider by only +2bps. Last two days have seen +2.5% equity upside that statistically should mean IG spreads -2bps. May be nothing, may be worries about supply. A "balanced" IG...
Soft retail sales, ECI flat for quarter and ADP jobs figures on the low end of expectations. Good data for the bond market, but that 15% GDP growth rate looks out of reach.
Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...
U.S. large caps dominated inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals ... high yield bonds saw most outflows, but broader fixed income universe was still positive @DataArbor https://t.co/l0soXmQF4S
How is this a healthy development? At least SIX big companies (liabilities >=$50M) have filed for bankruptcy EVERY WEEK during 3-wk period that began Jan 10, a level matched a handful of times since the turn of the century…last week alone...
#Alphabet sterling bond raises a record £4.5 bn, with £24 bn in bids. They may start borrowing on behalf of Bessent if it continues like this $GOOG
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
Tuesday: Equity futures slightly higher, dollar weaker and treasury yields nearly unchanged. Retail sales, Employment Cost Index and Import prices out today.
Who is the world's largest holder of US Treasuries? 🥇 Japan 🥈 United Kingdom 🥉 China But here's the wildest part - if Tether were a country, it would be the 17th largest holder of US Treasuries https://t.co/JoaE6JzFI9
TREASURY BILLS & GOVERNMENT BONDS Low-risk, government-backed securities. In Nigeria, buy FGN Savings Bonds or Treasury Bills through the CBN portal or apps like Chaka, Bamboo, or Cowrywise (minimum ₦10,000). Returns typically 12-18% annually. Other African countries offer similar products through their...
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
#Alphabet to issue 100-year GBPSterling bond after having issued 50-year $17.5 bn USD bond in November. Also plns to issue CHF bond. They're betting further currency debasement #forex
