Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Will the Gold and Silver Crash Bring Back Treasuries as the Risk-Off Trade of Choice? Read here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/will-the-gold-and-silver-crash-bring
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
The slow dance with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates has been happening for decades. You just add the mortgage spread variable here, too https://t.co/gavjysTwDz
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Many calling/hoping for a crash in private credit. While loan performance has mostly been ok, secondary prices tell a different story. A crash has already happened in the listed BDC market, with NAV discounts previously only seen during Covid and the GFC,...
$TLT - Closed the month above the yearly pivot at 88.18. The next upside target is the 1st yearly resistance at 93.07. The 2nd yearly resistance is 98.98. It looks bullish at the moment but you never know how high...
Key takeaways from Druckenmiller - Sees potential for higher long rates thanks to productivity growth - Out of the AI trade at this point - What he learnt from Soros was sizing - Visualizes the future 18-24 months out - Sells if valuation becomes...
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
Why did rates and bond yields drop today despite a hot inflation report? #Labor over #inflation. #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
After the White House confirmed that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac would increase their retained MBS by $200B, the 'spread'—which had already been compressing—slipped sub 200 bps for the first time in more than 3 years Today is first +200 bps spread since...
The noise around incoming credit crisis is picking up significantly today .. look APO, KRE, KKR etc
Pretty remarkable that the “we’re raising half the money via equity” improvement in Oracle’s 5Y CDS completely reversed (and then some) so quickly https://t.co/E8Qzqv4pMx
The PPI is not falling, it has become sticky. It means rates stay higher. That will slow things down. Thus bond yields are falling. Makes sense? God knows https://t.co/XxE0jqRJ3L
"Kevin Warsh Isn’t Crazy, the Fed’s Big Balance Sheet Is" The obvious path to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is to go back to a corridor system. It worked for over 100 years as @josephsternberg points out. The problem: the establishment...
@jimcramer I dont understand your response to the inflation print. It is not positive. And couldnt the short term strength in the 10 year (something you just mentioned) be a flight to quality with rising credit conerns and...
Scott @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport kindly forward this to Slink, @saraeisen (who has expressed the view that inflation is declining) and your panelists who mostly insist as part of their bullish stance on equities that inflation has been conquered. From Peter Boockvar...
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
February 27, 2026 📊 Insight: PPI at 8:30 = inflation read for producers. Cooler print could push yields lower and support growth/tech. Hot number likely pressures rates higher and weighs on high-multiple names. Watch $DXY and 10Y reaction first 5–10 mins. Economic...
Something is happening in bond markets. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen to the lowest this year, while credit spreads are widening to the highest this year.
Friday: Equity futures lower again, treasury yields down by 2-3 bps with ten-year yield dipping below 4%. Dollar softer. PPI due out today.
Quick proof of theory: MTD return as of y'days close has a -41% correlation with today's return. Statistically significant relationship at the 0.01% level. https://t.co/5nNOjJXagQ
Month end rebalancing has slight fixed income SELLING after today's move. That's rare for Feb since new 10yr and 30yr UST issuance usually leads to buying for index rebalancing. It's really all about the equity underperformance MTD. https://t.co/JSSOj5jEOD
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
It will be a quick turn from today's 7y auction to month end tomorrow. Reminder Feb duration extension will be larger Friday as it always is in a refunding month.
UBS's worst-case default rate for private credit is 15%. Up from 13% a month ago. For context, the 2008 leveraged loan default rate peaked at 10.8%. UBS is now modeling a scenario worse than the financial crisis for private credit. And they...
anyone care that the 2s10s yield curve went from a bull steepener to a bear flattener this month?
Economic Calendar for Thurs. Feb 26th 8:30am - Initial jobless claims: Expected 216k; Prior 206k - Continuing Jobless Claims: Expected 1.86M; Prior 1.869M 10:00 - Fed’s Bowman speaks 1:00pm - 7 Year Note Auction: Prior 4.018%
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
Not surprising to see some cheapening of very rich 5s before the auction later today. 2s5s10s up a few bps from Monday's Citrini low. Interesting to see if the move has legs post-auction https://t.co/ZQjjNm6NwT
There's lots of buzz about 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4%. But when you look at this yield vs US peers - hedging those yields back into US Dollars - the US picture isn't nearly so sanguine. The days when...
Bonds may be setting up the surprise of 2026. Equities own the narrative. Duration owns the asymmetry. If growth cools, fixed income becomes leadership. Framework here: https://t.co/NWtS4ggYI5 @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap
This is an incredibly thought-provoking global macro piece from @infraa_. If the gov't revenue decline from AI disruption of white collar workers isn't counter-balanced by taxation from AI productivity, we could be tip-toeing into a potential Sovereign Bond Implosion....
UBS’s Matt Mish lays out a scenario for credit involving “rapid, aggressive AI disruption.” US high yield, leveraged loan & private credit default rates could rise to 3–6%, 8–10%, & 14–15%, respectively: Mish. “Defaults could approach ~$420bn, w/losses of roughly...
What my post from December 2023 overlooked was the massive expansion in private credit. Private credit stepped in aggressively to fill financing gaps, refinance maturities, and provide bridge capital, delaying the "wall of maturities" many buyers were eager to capitalize on. Now...
Chart shows the shape and evolution of the yield curve (3-Month Treasury yields (blue) and 10-Year Treasury yields (red)) from Feb 2023 to Feb 2026. It's been a wild ride from the extreme inversion in 2023 to normalization beginning Q4 2025....
2y auctions during roll week are usually more interesting esp when TU (ZT) roll is this nasty
"March has historically been the weakest month for munis over the past 30 years. Even so, we continue to favor the long end of the muni curve, where tax-equivalent yields remain attractive." -Larry Adam, Raymond James
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
The probability weighted average of both @jasonfurman and the survey average is 2.3%*, i.e. solid breakout. That's bullish; CBO is at 1.8%. *(Assumes 5% for the >4% phase transition scenario. I figure probabilities of higher figures quickly fall to...
Truth: “If spreads keep widening and banks keep lagging, this is more than a one day shakeout. If they stabilize, this was the market resetting positioning and rotating and not the start of a whole new regime.”
I vibe coded a widget to show the idea of the blog post below. It simulates yield curve evolutions and equity market returns. Then it plots the distribution of annualized returns and volatilities over a given horizon using...
#mortgagespreads have allowed rates to get below 6% without the 10-year yield below 4% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
5-handle The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 5.99% Same day last year: 6.89% ---------------------- 10-year treasury yield today: 4.03% Spread today: 196 bps
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Small sector (~3% of USD fixed income), but wild relative flows into munis indicative of HNW demand. https://t.co/tEbLFk9ZiL
U.S. 10-year yields $TNX with all the @federalreserve increase rate decreases (green circles) since the latest (rate dropping) cycle started in Sep '24... https://t.co/Tch3MSks2c
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
5-year UST becoming the primary beneficiary of AI-driven disruption. Market pricing a 'lower for longer' rate environment, richening the belly. 2s5s10s 'fly https://t.co/7Rs11vfQp5
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
