T‑Bills Now Outshine DeFi with Higher, Safer Yields
There is no point to have money in DeFi since 2020 ponzinomic time (when T-Bill yield was super low and all the pickles, yams etc ponzis printed BIGLY) Since the rate hikes in 2022 the game has changed T-Bills give you more yield With no contract or security risks
Avoid Absurd Tail Risk for Sub‑SOFR Yields
I don’t think taking absurd tail risk to earn yield below SOFR is a good idea but that’s just me https://t.co/qw0D0qMyP9
Most Bond Investors See Credit Spreads Overvalued, BofA Says
BofA: The large majority of bond investors think credit spreads are overvalued $LQD $HYG https://t.co/Q8Lsx1wWCz
Moody's Downgrades Belgium Over Unreduced Debt
Belgium gets downgraded by Moody’s in reproof at failure to cut debt https://t.co/8nsX75i8rj via @maxramsay https://t.co/pgwDrPsc9D
Private Credit Talk: Focus on Their Fundraising Motives
Every major player in the industry has something to say about private credit. Before you read any of it, ask one question: what are they raising, and how does this help them raise it? https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/private-credit-unfiltered-everyone
Rate‑cut Odds Surge to 50% After Recent Events
Just a couple weeks the probability of another FOMC rate cut this year was down to less than 10% With some positive macro and geopolitical events over the past two weeks including the last 48 hours... the probability of another FOMC...
Debt Woes Could Spark Bond Market Revolt, Says Wilson
"If we don't find a way to grow out of the debt problem, the bond market will revolt... but I just don't see that right now." 🎙️ Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson https://t.co/6SRBAtt9a2
JOJO Delivers Income via Actively Managed Tactical Fixed Income
$JOJO seeks to deliver income while actively managing credit risk. Tactical fixed income that rotates based on real market signals. Ask me about it. @leadlagreport https://t.co/NFC6i1OOBG
War's End Relieves Treasury Funding, Swap Spreads Expand
With the possibility of war ending, US Treasury funding pressure looks to be easing helping swap spreads widen. Nice move today https://t.co/q4hDJXSsiz
Traders Boost Futures on Rising 2026 Fed Cut Odds
JUST IN: U.S. short-term interest rate futures climbed as traders bet on higher odds of a Fed rate cut in 2026.
Fed Swaps Signal Dovish Pivot, Pricing 15bps Cuts by December
JUST IN: Fed swaps indicate a dovish pivot, pricing 15 bps in rate cuts by December.
World Bank Mulls $2B Loan as Argentina Eyes Dollarization
#ArgentinaWatch 🇦🇷: The World Bank is considering loaning Argentina up to $2B to help refinance its debt. Stuck with junk-rated bonds, Argentina is leaning on multilateral development banks for finance. IT'S TIME FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST DEADBEAT TO DITCH THE PESO AND...
Record Treasury Leverage Threatens Global Fixed‑Income Stability
Hedge Fund Leverage in Treasuries at Record Highs. Torsten at Apollo ...any forced unwinding of these leveraged positions could send shockwaves through global fixed-income markets. https://t.co/vtq5KWmWLE
Yields Spike Three Months After New Fed Chair Takes Office
BofA Hartnett: Market usually tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts https://t.co/zn2zh9y9nl
Anticipate Credit Widening Early, Before Market Realizes
The best time to prepare for credit widening is when no one thinks it's coming. That's the pattern. 2007. 2019. It repeats. $JOJO rotates before the crowd. https://t.co/w9KYmmLAug
War and Energy Crisis Fuel Yield Surge, Bonds Bearish
Yes, higher yields for all kinds of reasons, namely: WAR IS INFLATIONARY in general, but when combined with global energy crisis? 🚀 Also, TARIFF REFUNDS are bearish bonds. And so are rising effective tariff rates... (yes, I do Technical analysis on everything.) #Paulson https://t.co/Z68kjUi0vF
HYG Options Shockingly Cheap, IV30 at 5.1%
Always seems crazy how cheap $HYG options May be first time I actually looked at the IV30, it is 5.1% lmao
Paulson Warns of Imminent Vicious Bond Market Crash
Henry Paulson Says US Should Prepare for a ‘Vicious’ Bond Crash - BBG, 4/16/26 Conspicuous in its timing, IMO. "Why am I reading this now?" https://t.co/odjQGdaGW5
Extreme Credit Spread Lows Always Precede Inevitable Widening
Credit spreads have never stayed at extreme lows forever. Every cycle of historic tightness has been followed by widening. Every single one. $JOJO handles the timing. https://t.co/igf5Sab4bP
15% of US IG Debt Now Tied to AI Capex
Some 15% of US IG debt is now tied to issuers involved in AI Capex (chart via Muzinich & Co) https://t.co/5F2NY2AnxN
UST 5s30s Struggles Above 100bps, Steepeners Fade
UST 5s30s having trouble holding above 100 bps which makes sense. It has been a nice ride for steepeners the past few weeks so a nice round number spot to lean against 5s here https://t.co/Z59ZwWo3hI
BOE’s Greene Confirms Traders Correctly Cut Rate Hike Bets
BOE’s Greene says traders were right to trim rate hike bets https://t.co/TDPziGklgr via @irinaanghel12 @flacqua https://t.co/UsKWcSk4T7
Treasury Direct: The Only Safe Bet (TINA)
There is no alternative (TINA) for US Treasury. I am personally an investor via treasury direct :-)
Foreign Share of US Treasury Demand Likely Overstated
The Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update. Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?” https://t.co/qUbusfuVOx https://t.co/HYoQrWI8cP
China’s Outperformance Driven by Excess Liquidity Recycling
China’s outperformance is symptomatic of its liquidity glut, said @Trinhnomics , a senior economist covering emerging Asia at Natixis in Hong Kong. “That excess liquidity is being recycled into high-quality Chinese credit.” https://t.co/3rIShLlAgS
Yield Gaps Reveal Overlooked Oil Supply Risks
Orange: UK 10y yields Blue: US 10y yields Light Green: German 10y yields Dark Green: Japan 10y yields Red: China 10y yields 2008 to today. Everyone is focused on sovereign oil supplies; no one is considering oil supplies in context of the chart below. Big mistake...big...yuge https://t.co/BrA762Bo13
2-Year Treasury Signals No Rate Cuts, Hikes Expected
The 2-year doesn't lie. It tracks Fed expectations closer than anything else in the market. And right now it's sitting above the Fed funds rate for the first time in a while. That's not pricing in rate cuts. That's pricing in rate...
Meta-Backed CoreWeave Debt Cut Risk, Sparked Market Surge
CoreWeave's debt deal (backed by Meta's AI compute commitment) closed March 30 (SPX bottom). imho the flurry of subsequent announcements were probably linked to this. Amazing things happen when counterparty risk goes down...
Governments Can't Borrow Their Way Out of Energy Crisis
One big and underappreciated difference between today's energy shock and the events of 2021-22 = Governments will not be able to borrow their way out of this one. Many governments borrowed heavily to fund subsidies, bailouts, and other measures to shield...
Tech's Share in Credit Indices Surges to 10%
AI Is Reshaping Credit Market Composition Tech’s share of the investment-grade index has risen from 1.9% in 2006 to 10.7% today, with similar gains in high-yield and leveraged loans. Torsten at Apollo $LQD $HYG https://t.co/U1i37ent6D
Only Two or Three Rate Cuts Remain After War
After the war is over, they will push for lower rates, but realistically, we only have two or maybe three cuts left to reach a neutral policy.
Britain, Italy, France Become Europe's New Bond Market Scapegoats
Great, the new Piigs are Britain, Italy and France... ‘Bifs’ replace ‘Piigs’ as Europe’s bond market whipping boys https://t.co/v9jWXMg6nF via @ft
Yellen Likens Trump’s Rate‑cut Push to Banana Republic
Trump’s push to cut US rates akin to ‘banana republic’, says Yellen - https://t.co/RpxzxJc6i3 via @FT
China to Issue RMB 15.5bn Treasury Bonds in Hong Kong
Xinhua: "China's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday said that it will issue this year's second batch of RMB 15.5 billion in renminbi-denominated treasury bonds in Hong Kong on April 22." https://t.co/OFSlsUluRF
Zero‑percent Euro/Yen Bonds Made 2021 Borrowing Bliss
Few things sweeter in corporate finance than borrowing at 0.000% by issuing fixed-rate notes in Euros/Yen during 2021 https://t.co/Wv6Z1zNz1S
5‑Year Yields Rich Amid Front‑End
After a spirited front-end rally, 5s looking rich on the curve as intermediate-term slowdown bets dominate. Unfortunately, other tenors have their own issues. Fiscal concerns make the long end unattractive before May refunding and 2s have a here...
Use $JOJO to Complement Bonds During Spread Expansions
$JOJO is a complement, not a replacement. Add it alongside your core bond allocation for tactical credit rotation. When spreads blow out, you'll want this in the portfolio. https://t.co/xlY97itNk2
TBAC Survey Launches; Coupon Rise May Pressure Long End
I think TBAC questionnaires go out this week. Any question suggesting an increase in coupon issuance could pressure the long end.
Herbalife Issues $800M Notes, Boosts Credit Outlook
Herbalife plans $800M 2033 secured notes to refinance costlier debt and extend maturities. 78% gross margin, $253M FCF, S&P upgrade support credit. Risk: leverage. Trade accumulate on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Active IG Issuance Day; USTs Face Pressure Post‑rally
Looking to be an active IG issuance day. USTs feeling a bit of pressure after a nice overnight rally
UK 10‑Year Bond Draws Record Demand, Yields Spike
The good news for the UK: the country had record amounts of investor demand for a 10-year bond offering. The bad news: they had to offer a high premium, selling the debt at the highest yield since 2008 at 4.9%....
Treasury Yields Drop Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict
JUST IN: U.S. Treasury yields are sliding lower with Middle East conflict still front and center.
China's Finance Ministry Mulls Special Treasury Bond Issue
JUST IN: China's finance ministry is discussing a special treasury bond issuance plan with underwriters.
Skip IGSB ETF; T‑Bills Give Similar Yield, Lower Risk
Thinking short-term bonds? Analysis says skip IGSB ETF for now. Re-inflation risks could hurt returns, while T-Bills offer similar yield with less risk. Investing
TLT Trading Volume Hits Three-Year Low, Signaling Waning Bond Interest
TLT is a good proxy for bond market interest. And interest (volume) is now at a 3+ year low. * $TLT's volume today was 12.720M shares, the lowest daily volume since January 2023 (and this INCLUDES holidays) * The 5-day average volume...
UK Bond Market Losers Identified, Risks Explained, Solutions Offered
Posted earlier today: FYI, here’s the link to my column on who lost the UK bond market—the what, why, and so what... and also what to do about it: https://www.ft.com/content/4b258818-4935-4507-b554-bccc5fd05b66 #economy #markets #bonds #uk @financialtimes
Upgrade 40% Bond Allocation with Active Defense
The 60/40 portfolio needs an upgrade on the 40 side. Static bond allocations don't position well in credit events. $JOJO adds an active layer of defense. https://t.co/r7U1174Vtd
Buy Front-End On
Solid strategy to buy the front end when pricing hikes. Trump generally turns it around with a positive spin. 5s up more than 10 ticks since the Globex Sunday night open.
30‑
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.41% Same day last year: 7.07% --------------------- 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.31% Spread today: 210 bps
Fed Still Plans Rate Cuts Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty
I predicted in a couple interviews the Fed will LOWER interest rates this year, not raise them. Now March minutes show... "Federal Reserve officials still expect to lower interest rates this year, even with high uncertainty from the Iran war and...