Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Pulse
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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs
While credit markets are open to many companies, they're starting to close for others. Qualtrics, which makes online survey tools, had to ice a $5.3 billion loan and bond deal due to lack of investor appetite. https://t.co/DE0BfMnHYT
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
US 30-Year Treasury Bond yields are testing key channel support levels—are we nearing an inflationary or deflationary recession? With the upcoming FED meeting and rising commodity prices, a breakdown here could dictate the market's next major move. Dive into the...
The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader https://t.co/xiba9GU3z2
Bonds rallying while stocks bounce. $TLT up 0.8%. In a real recovery, bonds sell off as risk appetite returns. This looks like a flight to safety dressed up as a relief rally. $SPY https://t.co/azWo3xSslp
Every month someone publishes a higher default forecast. > Fitch: 5.8% actual > Morgan Stanley: 8% > UBS: 15% worst case Every month someone in the industry calls it irresponsible.
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
UK funds snap up gilts in a bet that markets have the BOE all wrong https://t.co/FFHExPNhxC https://t.co/0e6cHNIwPe
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut. A month ago, no one would have believed this. https://t.co/a9K0cTXJS1
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
The dream comes with a price Awesome to see the demand All ZHCs will need treasuries
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
Sell-side is fading the war-inflation trade in the front end. The consensus? High energy prices are a growth killer, not a long-term inflation driver. For now, the tape is happy to ignore them.
Oil shock is reversing (Strait clearing narrative), curve flattening continues (rate hikes priced in), credit widening (HY spread breakout), and rent collapse vindicates office REIT pressure. De-escalation moves favor equities; watch if $94 oil holds or bounces.
Private credit default rate just hit 5.8%. Apollo down 41%. Blackstone down 46%. Blue Owl down 66% from peak. $265 billion in market cap erased. This is not a headline. It's a crisis. https://t.co/Am5fwWlQPj
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
JBG 10yr Yield back to signaling Bullish TRADE and TREND @Hedgeye with #Quad3 Inflation Accelerating https://t.co/qkWdn2Fxoe
The oil-price shock is taking a bigger toll on European markets, particularly in fixed income, making the ECB's meeting this week arguably more interesting than the Fed's. Yields on French 10-year bonds are back up to the highest since 2011....
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
Short end bond curve (OUS) reaction to the energy shock, and the MASSIVE market complacency. https://t.co/FPG8npWCCQ
Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation & Deficit Fears. US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields https://t.co/PBjZjAGHme https://t.co/VXWtZ8bNKw
Credit spreads are starting to move. Junk bond yields just hit a 3-month high at 7.34%, while high-yield spreads are trending higher in early 2026. That’s usually the first crack. Credit weakens → liquidity tightens → risk assets feel it next. Still early. Time...
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
$TLT - In just 2 weeks it's back to the February low due to the Iran war. If it beaks the February low(86.43) we will likely see a retest of the 2025 low and maybe even the 2023 low. https://t.co/Mm9e0lX2JM
"Inflation isn't a problem at all." Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺 One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈. https://t.co/Y10UC0y7lL
Gold selling off with stocks is necessary now for Treasuries to return. And this is playing out exactly as I argued it would. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade.
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
Investment-grade bonds just broke down from a 3-year support. These are early signs of stress in the bond market. Keep in mind that junk bonds are also trading well below their 200-day moving average now. Latest presentation: https://t.co/gDlMFjFGml https://t.co/UUDCngoUN8
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
👇Looking for the catalyst? And it was already a fragile economic environment before the recent spike in energy costs (which will compound these dynamics below) And well said @wesbury …
In today's Early Look: "#Quad3 Bond Yield Breakout" The Signaling Process that I built changed. I changed with it. When lightning hits the golf course, do you want to debate last Tuesday's forecast — or get off the fairway? https://t.co/pZVQzeHQXQ
UST Bond Yields signaling a Bullish TREND Breakout, across the curve - will review on The Macro Show https://t.co/MUbXHcltNR
Global shocks now account for about half of the variation in interest rates, more than double their role in earlier decades. https://t.co/a8Dhi9Gxpu
Nice chat with @julesaly looking at how the surge in crude oil is shaping price action in bonds, the US dollar, and the S&P 500. Today on @ausbiztv: https://t.co/8j3fNOcH2C
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
BBB spreads are tighter now than where they were at the end of February. That might surprise a lot of people. Yes, spreads have widened some, but still nowhere near past levels. https://t.co/CvrdmgMyHp
This credit investor built the world’s largest bond fund, running nearly $300B, and reshaped fixed-income investing forever.
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
The software maturity wall isn't a secret. Everyone has this chart. $38B in 2028. Mostly B and below. These aren't getting refinanced at par. They're getting extended. The only question is whether the A&E is consensual or coercive. And if the last...
Blue Owl says the marks are real. Every sell-side analyst has a Buy. Yet $OBDC trades at a 25% discount to NAV. Finally had a chance to go through the portfolio. Found exactly what you'd expect: stale marks, understated software exposure,...
