Future Default and Severity Rates Drive Private Credit Opportunity
Actually want matters is both the future default rate AND severity rate. Sometimes defaults fault in a greater recovery as when long dated fully collateralized bonds default and the maturity date advances to the day it is restructured.
Alliance
A 33-year-old global high-yield fund. 8% NAV discount — near the widest since 2022. 7.5% yield collected while you wait for the discount to compress. Is AllianceBernstein's AWF the unloved global income play right now? https://t.co/5wNRfc4Lcg
Warsh's Push to Cut Fed Liquidity Tests Rate Limits
Curious, if Warsh wants to trade in fiscal dominance for fiscal discipline - removing to start the $300B/yr Fed liquidity program Powell approved to ease REPO volatility - how low do rates go & how does he get them down...
UK Yields Rise as BoE Shuns Gilt Buying, Unlike ECB
In Oct. '22, the Bank of England refused to keep buying gilts, in contrast the ECB that capitulated to Italy and Spain, capping their yields that summer. Markets now price yield caps for Italy and Spain, but not for the...
SONAR Data Indicates Potential New TL Rate Supercycle
After a bullish KNX call, UBS asks about "another TL rate supercycle?" Indeed. SONAR's data certainly suggests so.... https://t.co/yqFfD1X8AW
Yields Climb as U.S.-Iran Tension Meets PMI Watch
JUST IN: Treasury yields rise amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, with investors eyeing April PMI data.
Bloomberg's Argentina Report Beats Bank Sales Pitch
Some excellent reporting here from Bloomberg (on Argentina) More hard hitting that a lot of investment bank research/ bonds salesmanship 1/ https://t.co/fM2uaDPWmh
Fed Chair Sees Rate Cuts, Markets Delay Until 2027
The new Fed Chair thinks productivity gains mean rates should fall. Markets aren't pricing in a single cut until late 2027. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/1jwtVXGFZX
Judge Enforces Absolute Priority Amid $500M Trump Priming
so you have Trump’s priming $500mn, the ad hoc bondholder group, and a federal judge sworn to uphold the absolute priority rule 🍿: https://t.co/nLx7Z4Tz0f https://t.co/ddFVAt6bSH
Iran War Inflation Drives Rates Despite Upcoming UST Auction Schedule
It has been almost two weeks since the last UST coupon auction. Today's 20y starts up a bunched up schedule in the next week that is another headwind for rates. Of course, the Iran war inflation remains the...
Tight Spreads Signal Risk, Not Safety
2007: Spreads were tight. Everyone was comfortable. Then Bear Stearns. Then Lehman. The lesson? Tight spreads are a setup, not a safety net. $JOJO knows the playbook. https://t.co/snHkbOgCAJ
5-Year Yield Rises Toward Downtrend Line
Interest rates worth watching here. 5-year yield pushing up into the recent downtrend line after holding support last week https://t.co/n0HhB2UYKx
Fed’s Rate Tightening Always Ends With Credit Cracks
The Fed's core dilemma: inflation requires higher rates. Credit breaks at higher rates. Every tightening cycle ends when something cracks — not when inflation hits target. 1982: S&L stress. 2007: housing. 2023: banks. Always the same story. $TLT https://t.co/Ogvr0NZVik
China Appears to Be Offloading US Treasury Holdings
China's been selling treasuries, it looks like. At least from what the https://t.co/2NINP4wNc9 data seems to be saying. https://t.co/fPbYm8T3Wf
Muni Bonds: Underrated Gem for Savvy Investors
Muni bonds don't get discussed all that often, but for the right investor, they make a ton of sense. Great look at it all from @gilbert3142 on our team. https://t.co/3RC2usnSOx
Yield Caps Shift Fiscal Strain to Yen, Raise Rates
There's no free lunch in macro. The Yen keeps falling because Japan uses the BoJ to cap yields. That doesn't make fiscal strain go away. It just transfers it from the bond market to the Yen. The way out is...
Long-End Traders Market Holds Tight
Long end has been a traders market since the initial sell-off after the Iran war started. Ultras (UB) with a relatively clean 1 point (ish) range that continues to hold https://t.co/PQ1Ar1xzTA
UK's Yield Strategy Beats Japan's Yield Caps
The UK gets a lot of guff for being a fiscal basket case due to its high yields, but that's not right. The counter-example is Japan, which caps yields using the BoJ (lhs), sending the Yen into a depreciation spiral....
MTR Issues Record HK$18.8bn Green Bond, First Local Dollar Issuance
MTR Corporation (0066) has priced its HK$18.8 billion corporate green bonds, marking its inaugural local dollar public bond issuance and the largest bond transaction in the Hong Kong dollar market.
China's Biggest HK Yuan Bond Sale Hits Record‑low Yields
Bloomberg: "China’s biggest yuan bond sale in Hong Kong since 2023 drew record-low yields for both two- and 15-year debt, with two-year debt selling at a yield of 1.32% and 15-year debt at 2.08%." https://t.co/Q9FDkpbbJE
Treasury's Bill Swap Is Pure Cash Management, No Market Effect
The Treasury bought back 15BN in bills, notes, and bonds maturing in less than a year. In order to fund that purchase they issued or will issue 15BN of Tbills of similar but different maturity to better align the...
Tech Junk Debt Spikes as Broader Credit Stays Risk‑on
Software 45% of distressed lev loans, up from 42% $130B+ of junk-rated tech debt maturing in 2028 Meanwhile, the rest of credit is firmly risk-on
Lower Rates Needed to Manage Unmanageable Federal Debt
Hearing Kevin Warsh talk about Fed independence, and watching hard assets sell off on that, feels a lot like the hype around DOGE. Great in theory, but ultimately unrealistic. The reality is that government debt has reached a scale that no brilliant...
Rate‑cut Odds Tumble After Warsh Hearing, Retail Sales Drive Shift
What's priced in after Warsh's nomination hearing. Yesterday, here was a 54.5% chance of a rate cut in December; now it's 39.5%. Was it Warsh's testimony? Doubtful, as we had a strong retail sales report. (src: BBG) https://t.co/Xg7g7b7gXM
Warsh Denies President Asked About Rate Cuts
Warsh says reports that the president asked him if he would lower rates if nominated were fake news.
High‑Quality Bonds: Simple, Reliable Diversifier for Equities
They're not foolproof (see: 2022), but high-quality bonds have been darn reliable diversifiers for equity exposure. Just add a bit of cash and you should be good to go. Sometimes the best answers really are the simplest ones. https://t.co/Eh3bgvN2Uz
Stadium Bonds Cost Double the Tax Revenue Generated
At a 4% interest rate, Missouri's $900m in stadium bonds would cost ~$50m a year to pay off, while bringing in only whatever slice of $28m/year in state, county, and city taxes attributed to the Royals actually goes to the...
Warsh: President only Suggested, Didn’t Demand Rate Cuts
Q: did the President ask you to lower rates? Warsh: he didn't require it, he didn't demand it. Question goes back and forth. Warsh is pretty clear - Warsh doesn't dispute that he may have been 'asked' to lower rates - he...
Fed Balance Sheet Cuts Must Be Gradual, No Fixed Target
What level should the balance sheet be at? Warsh: I haven't picked a number. The Fed should come to an agreement, it's taken 18 years to get to the balance sheet, it won't happen overnight. It should not hold long-term Treasuries....
Warsh's Plan to Cut SOMA WAM Gains FOMC Backing
Reducing WAM of SOMA could be part of Warsh's plan which many FOMC members could support
Warsh's Trump Ties and Consistently Poor Fed Calls
It's not just that Warsh would be beholden to Trump. That is the most important thing, but it also overshadows the fact that his Fed calls down the years have been bad--not uniquely bad, but systematically bad. I'm old enough...
Warsh Says President Never Directed Specific Interest-Rate Decisions
Warsh's wording seemed quite precise to me (emphasis mine): "The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on *any interest rate decision*" He used the same wording again: "The president never once asked me to commit to any particular...
Historic Low Credit Spreads Prompt Treasury Rotation
Everyone thinks credit is fine. That's exactly when it isn't. Spreads at historic lows mean you're getting paid almost nothing for risk. $JOJO rotates to Treasuries when the risk isn't worth the reward. https://t.co/su2AGVy5J5
Warsh Denies President Ever Pressured Him on Interest Rates
Warsh: the President never asked me to predetermine or fix any particular rate. The President never, once, asked me to any particular interest rate decision, period. Nor would I agree to it.
Fed Official Dodges Rate Question, Emphasizes Policy Lag
Warsh: I don't believe in forward guidance, I should not be previewing for you... VanHollen: I'm asking about your framework: what would happen if interest rates were lowered to 1% or less. Would that likely push up prices. Warsh: the Fed has...
30-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Move
US 30Y yields are compressing near a key breakout zone setup suggests a decisive move could be close. What happens next could impact equities, commodities, and global liquidity Read the full breakdown: https://t.co/a7I8dqoCIw #US30Y #BondYields #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Indiacharts #MacroEconomics...
Trump Predicts Rate Cuts Once Kevin Warsh Returns
JUST IN: President Trump says expects interest rates to fall “when Kevin Warsh gets in”
Rising T‑Rates May Trigger Emerging Market Problems
Coach thinks T-rates could turn higher from here. That could cause a few problems. https://t.co/rnBUpVg4z1
Private Credit BDCs Cheap, High Yields Signal Buying Opportunity
Everyone says private credit is blowing up. BDCs are trading at 0.83x book. Yields are north of 6%. Default stats don't even measure the same thing. The "fire" is a buying opportunity. https://t.co/tKztIaLmRQ
Republicans Brace for Hawkish Warsh Amid Trump Nomination
Feels like Ts are bracing for a hawkish Warsh which makes sense given he is Trump's nominee and he has to show his independence during the hearings
1981 US Rates Hit 16%, Outpacing Global Peers
Trump tells CNBC that the US had interest rates much lower than other countries when he was younger. The US had interest rates as high as 16% in 1981 -- far higher than major trade partners like West Germany and Japan...
Wall Street, FOMC Scrutinize Warsh Amid Trump Rate‑Cut Pressure
The toughest audiences at Warsh's confirmation hearing won't be in the room. Wall Street and the FOMC are watching how he'll manage Trump's pressure to cut interest rates. The president is watching for signs he'll deliver on expectations he set...
OD/ID Pattern Drives Strong Bond Breakouts At
Bonds: OD/ID...often a powerful breakout pattern. (ideally at the bottom or top of a swing, though). Let's see..... https://t.co/GsMqqNvTKb
Canton Network Secures Major Tokenized JGB Deals
😎 "We didn't do a pre-mine, we didn't publish all these white papers. We just very quietly executed, and now we're signing all these deals. "Today we signed deals around with Mizuho and Nomura and JPX around tokenized JGBs." --...
Bond Yields Stagnate Amid War Costs and Supply Surge
Despite the war's fiscal costs, increased Treasury supply, and surging energy prices, bond yields are barely moving higher. We are either in denial, overly optimistic, or labor is much worse than we think. I guess be happy if you need...
Warsh Vows Strict Rate Independence, Reaffirms Price‑Stability Mandate
Warsh commits to being strictly independent on rates Also Warsh: price stability Fed mandate without excuse
Warsh Hearing Could Shift USTs Amid Iran War
Iran war continues to dominate price action in USTs but Warsh's confirmation hearing tomorrow will likely interrupt the current narrative for a spell especially if he sticks to his recent rate dovishness and balance sheet hawkishness.
Vanguard's NY Municipal Fund Offers Triple Tax-Free Returns
About a year ago, Vanguard launched a municipal bond fund for New York residents ticker $MUNY that is triple tax free for New York residents with a low expense ratio. Seems pretty good.
AMC Secures $425M Refinancing, Extends Debt Maturities
On Friday, we consummated a highly beneficial $425 million refinancing. AMC has once again taken decisive action to strengthen our financial position by extending our debt maturities by four full years, while simultaneously reducing our annual cash interest expense. I...
Adaptive Bond Fund Rotates for Market Edge
Your clients don't need another bond fund that does the same thing in every market. They need one that adapts. $JOJO rotates between high yield and Treasuries. That's the edge. https://t.co/h5qCdtoVFq