Fitch: U.S. Debt Levels Exceed Peer AA Nations
"Fitch Warns US Debt Burden Is ‘Far Above’ Other AA Rated Nations" None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/bA3E6txTHG https://t.co/jfpiadGKWT
Treasury's Hidden QE Fuels Reckless Economic Overheating
Policymakers are running the economy so unbelievably hot right now that I am starting to think it has approached or surpassed recklessness. The Treasury has completely taken over control of the money supply and financial conditions with their ongoing ATI/YCC...
Brazil Slashes Rates Again, Down to 14.5%
Global Central Bank Update: -Brazil cut rates for the second month in a row, 25 bps move down to 14.50%. https://t.co/a53O5fczcP
Rates Paused, Borrowing Costs May Rise Soon
Interest rates on hold….but for how long? Here’s the lowdown on what could be a ahead for borrowing costs… #finance #money #costofliving #inflation #moneytok
Rate Cuts Done, Fed May Hike by 2027
The interest rate cutting cycle is officially over. With previously forecast rate cuts off the table, the market is now pricing in 50% odds the Fed will hike rates by April 2027. Position accordingly. https://t.co/LBGUwo4wXJ
10-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Volatility
US 10-Year Yields are approaching a crucial breakout zone—are we heading toward the final leg higher? This could trigger volatility across equities and signal a major macro shift. 👉 Read the full analysis: https://t.co/O1bdBUqOoi https://t.co/tP9WV8oG6w
ECB May Raise Rates in June If Energy Prices Hold
ECB officials see June hike if energy prices don’t ease first https://t.co/oOFKXlly37 via @Alemrome https://t.co/chZl06ltaV
Warsh Takes Fed Helm, Signals Lower Short Rates
Bonds have remained eerily quiet and continue to sit near the apex of a long triangle. With Kevin Warsh now about to take the helm of the Fed, we are about to enter what we might call the Warsh-Bessent Treasury-Fed...
Fed's Rate Moves Defy Crisis Predictions
The Fed kept rates at 0% for a long time Lots of pundits predicted it would lead to a crisis and maybe even hyperinflation Didn't happen Then they raised rates b/c of the pandemic inflation Still no crisis Why? https://t.co/JqtrhQ1AHs https://t.co/g75B9IkwoQ
Bank Savings Earn 0.01%, T‑Bills Yield 3.5%
Big banks rip you off. BoA, Chase, and Wells Fargo pay ~0.01% interest on your savings. They earn BILLIONS off your cash by lending it out at 6.5 Instead of keeping your savings there, consider Treasury Bills paying ~3.5%, state tax free, backed...
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in March Forecast
Lagarde basically underwriting the idea that the baseline forecasts in March includes two rate hikes
Lagarde: Credit Tightening Signals Implicit Rate Rise
Lagarde emphasizes that credit conditions have tightened. It's important to note that rates have implicitly increased in face of the supply shock.
30‑Year Treasury Yield Hovers Near 5%
Lots of data... yields remain lower this morning... but that 30yr is still close to 5% https://t.co/ol2XJ3StCG
67‑Year‑Old Lifts 365
What’s the heavier lift: 365 lbs on your 67th birthday or telling your colleagues you changed your mind on rate cuts? Chris Waller seems comfortable with both. (He posted this video on his LinkedIn account) https://t.co/RIAIyJCkUm
Meta's Debt Triples, $25B Bond Sale Boosts Load
Meta Debt Load - Zuck Levering Up 2026: $87B* 2022: $27B *Add $25B, **META LOOKS TO RAISE $25B IN BOND SALE - Bloomberg.
UK Gilt Yields Drop Sharply on Oil, Yet Remain High
UK Gilts and Oil Pricea The "good news" for the UK today is that it's government bond market’s hypersensitivity (high beta) to oil prices is finally providing relief on the way down: As shown in the Bloomberg table below, the yield on...
Majorities Say War Bonds Offer No Cost Advantage
Latest CfM-NIESR survey: "War bonds" would offer no cost advantage over standard government bonds. Some 76% of the UK panel and 71% of the EU panel disagreed with the proposition that “war bonds” would be a cheaper form of borrowing. https://t.co/USeBxw4ZRx
Liquidity Dries up Exactly During Market Crises
The 2010 US equity market ‘flash crash’, the 2014 US Treasury turbulence, and the March 2020 pandemic sell-off in US Treasuries all share a disturbing pattern: liquidity vanished precisely when it was most urgently needed. https://t.co/qvntt9NSaH
Japanese 10‑Year Yield Hits 2.52%, Echoing Global Rise
Japanese 10-year yields hit a new post-1997 high of 2.52%. Longer-term yields are rising globally in tandem with surging oil prices, especially as companies and governments demonstrate a will to keep spending. https://t.co/cL61POetPv
Rising Yields Safe Until Recession Hits Deficits
See lots of reference to higher gilt yields and the threat to public finances. As long as nominal GDP is purring at +5% it doesn't matter. But if you have a recession, and a nominal slowdown, with automatic stabilisers blowing...
BOJ Faces 3% Core
BOJ risk scenario: core CPI ~3% in 2026–27 as oil $105, yen -10%, stocks -20%. Macro: sustained above-target inflation. Risk: rising inflation expectations. Trade: short-duration JGBs (JPY-hedged). — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Mortgage Spread Trends Since 1970 Revealed
Nothing better than talking about the history of mortgage spreads going back to 1970 🫡 https://t.co/upgguOdje6
Bond Market Sees 12% Chance of Fed Hike, 5% Cut
The bond market is now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed RATE HIKE (12%) by the end of this year than a RATE CUT (5%). https://t.co/i77bnsp7MR
Fed Holds Rates Amid Most Divided Vote Since 1992
FOMC: Fed leaves the FFR unchanged at 3.50-3.75% The vote was the most divided FOMC decision since 1992 (8-4 in favour of holding rates).
2026 More Likely to See Rate Hike Than Cut
🚨 There is now a higher chance of a rate hike than a rate cut in 2026. https://t.co/yKg7oHD4Mv
Fed Cuts Raise 30-Year Yield; Inflation Still Looming
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%. They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed....
30‑Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5%, Near 18‑Year
*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high. https://t.co/Aow1azOUWb
Markets Expect Rate Hike, Not Cut, by April 2027
Markets are now pricing in rate hike rather than a rate cut by the April 2027 meeting. Yup. #FOMC
Fed Holds Rates, Dissenting Hawk Calls for Cut
Hawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.5to 3.75% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.” The vote was not unanimous in a very unique way. Governor...
Yield Caps Hide Fiscal Risk, Depreciate the Yen
The Yen is tumbling. That's happening because the BoJ caps Japanese long-term yields at artificially low levels via JGB purchases. These yield caps prevent the fiscal risk premium from showing up in the bond market, so instead it shows up...
Powell: Neutral Rate Uncertain, but We're Near It
Powell says we can't know what the neutral rate is definitively, but says we are pretty close to it now
Fed Independence Persists: Powell, Warsh Impact Markets & Gold
Post FOMC analysis with @adamtaggart - Fed independence/ Powell staying on / Warsh Fed / implications for markets / gold https://t.co/V94nEWpvPn
Fed Holds Rates Amid Record Dissent, Split Hawk‑Dove
This Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Hoot. Fed Holds Rates amid 4 Dissents, most since 1992: 1 Dovish, 3 Hawkish. “Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.” In part. And in part for other...
Powell's Final Speech Triggers 4.41% 10‑Year Surge
Fed Chair Jay Powell steps up to the podium one last time. Markets 4.41% 10yr, Spooz 7150, BBDXY 1202.37 1/x https://t.co/Y6jhMca7dd
Fed Policymakers Warn Warsh: No Consensus on Rate Cuts
A group of Federal Reserve policymakers sent Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh a clear warning on Wednesday: They're not sold on cutting interest rates. https://t.co/K8PiTAl1aL
Fed Holds Rates, Committee Splits on Future Cut Language
Surprising exactly nobody, the Fed kept rates on hold. More interesting: This is the most divided I've seen a committee vote. They're not divided over the decision (except Miran, but who cares), but over the language, and whether to signal the...
Four Fed Dissenters Signal Rare Break From Easing Bias
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. https://t.co/JM88jOXIAg
Fed's Next Move: Markets See Zero Uncertainty
The Fed announces its next rates decision in half an hour, and there is exactly ZERO uncertainty about what it won't do (at least according to Fed Funds futures markets). https://t.co/Ikedm6uh6c
No Fed Dot Plot—FOMC Statement Takes Center Stage
There's no Fed dots today, which means that until Powell's last (and 64th—but who's counting) press conference at 2:30 pm, it's just the FOMC statement to do the heavy lifting. Here's what I'm watching: https://t.co/8sdY0wHDV8
Iran War Pushes Fed Cuts Out Past 2027
Almost three Fed rate cuts have been priced out from July 2027 meeting since beginning of Iran war. The chart below shows the implied rate for July 2027; source: Bloomberg https://t.co/sZt0N3IHO2
Canada Yields Rise Independently of Recent Rate Cuts
when they tell you that Canadian rates (yields) are rising and the @bankofcanada is all to blame, just tell'em they're wrong... 5-year Canada yields bottomed in '20 (like global yields) they spent the past few years consolidating and are now moving...
Treasuries Near Multi-Year Breakdown Ahead of Powell's Final FOMC
$TLT Weekly. Headed into Powell's final FOMC, Treasuries on brink of not just multi-month breakdown but multi-year as well. Bear flag threat here, which means risk of rates spiking higher yet https://t.co/BKBIEADTxm
USDCAD Reflects Negative Yield Spread Despite Higher US Rates
Even though the US benchmark rate is ~150 basis points higher than the Canadian benchmark, the 2-year to benchmark yield spread between the US and Canada is -0.53% (-53 bps). $USDCAD vs that premium differential: https://t.co/hp6WgKtRCI
Global Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs, Lifting US Rates
Global bond yields still a story. 10 yr JGB yield at 29 yr high, German 10 yr bund yield at 15 yr high, and 10 yr gilt yield at 16 yr high today. Dragging up US long end yields.
Bonds and Yen Remain Market’s Critical Focus
Just released this week's Scouting the Tape that follows up on last week's bond and Yen discussion. Continue to believe this is the most important area of the market. There is a lot going on here.
Bond Yields Hit Cycle Highs Amid Accelerating Global Inflation
Globally, Bond Yields continue to ramp to new Cycle Highs (in both the UK and Japan) as Global Inflation continues to accelerate https://t.co/bA1ZMxliBU
Inflation‑linked Bonds Boost Nominal Returns, Tax on Unrealized Gains
𝗧𝗮𝘅𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗻'𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗱 😲 To see how RSA Retail Savings Inflation-Linked Bonds work, let’s look at a hypothetical investment of R100,000 over a 5 year period 𝗟𝗲𝘁'𝘀 𝘀𝗮𝘆 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝟭𝟬𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝟱-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻-𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝟰.𝟳𝟱%...
1873 Railway Bond Bust Unveiled in New Episode
A new episode of The Story of Money has just dropped, and is based on a chapter in my forthcoming book on the history of the bond market… It's the big fat railway bond bust of 1873! https://t.co/kIo22xR6Gu
Germany's AAA Rating at Risk Amid €1tn Debt Plan
Good Morning from Germany, where the country’s AAA credit rating is coming under pressure. Acc to a financial plan the cabinet is set to approve today, the federal govt aims to take on nearly €1tn in new debt by 2030....
AI Review Flags Alarming Surge in UK Yields
FWIW, this AI-generated review of the X universe over the last 24 hours takes my "understated" post on UK yields to a much more alarming level as it draws on other information in its database. #economy #markets #uk