Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Very Big Volume in Treasury Complex. Dimes (UST Classic 10 Yr Note Futures) have traded over 3.5 Million Contracts as of 1:40 pm EST.
$25B in orders on $EA’s $15B debt deal. Oversubscribed. Getting done. Capital markets are wide open… For the right issuers at the right price with the right Saudi SWF backstop.
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
This is a US Treasury auction schedule and it’s actually a liquidity map in disguise. Here’s the simple breakdown:
4.5% bond yields are too much for Bessent so he probably drafted the Trump statement about Iran talks. Irant not buying it https://t.co/I8PHct99Kf
Question from a macro-ignorant options guy: Credit issues get better with sharply higher interest rates, right? https://t.co/UdR6NlJ6OR
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
"High-yield spreads rose to a 9-month high this week, and we’ve seen the largest weekly withdrawals from high-yield mutual funds since Liberation Day" --JPM
Nasty open for USTs with front-end under the most pressure. 2y futs off 3.5 ticks
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
This is maybe not this week or even next month, but this is a failed auction waiting to happen. #TreasurySupply
There’s having convexity. And then there’s having convexity on top of convexity. The edge is seeing it before the path is obvious. In the rearview mirror, returns always look smaller. I may have discovered a corner of the market that is oddly...
A bit of weekend announcement aimed at stabilising soaring mortgage rates FANNIE, FREDDIE PLACE LARGE BIDS FOR MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
Last week I said the chance of a rate cut according to the polymarket was more than likely not happening Some thought I was wrong Needless to say no rate cut happened I need you all to pay attention… this ENTIRE YEAR (as...
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Long-term Treasuries are up 4.60% this year. The S&P 500 is down 3.24%. The most consensus short trade in finance for three years is quietly winning. Nobody writes bond bull pieces. Nobody is crediting their bond allocation. But TLT has outperformed SPY...
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.
"A big distribution pattern is carving out in the Junk Bonds vs. Treasuries ratio. A breakdown here would be the last thing stock market bulls want to see." -Alfonso De Pablos, All Star Charts
$TLT - Made a new low for the year and is headed back to the low 80s. The next major support is the May 2025 low at 83.30. https://t.co/b3Nva3eIMx
All the manipulation impact of Trump "Instructing the GSE's" to buy 200BN in MBS has disappeared as OAS is now higher. Throw in higher vol and modestly higher 10's and you get higher mortgage rates. https://t.co/NKfe9Jq3vg
Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y govt bond yields have risen >3%, their highest level since 2011. The recent increase is driven disproportionately by higher long-term inflation expectations – meaning real 10y yields have fallen from 1.35% to 0.77%. The chart...
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
$TLT is up 1.10% YTD. $SPY is down 3%. Bonds are beating stocks in 2026. The same trade nobody wanted in January is the only one working in March. https://t.co/8oVDeeOfUe
Bonds are beating stocks in 2026. The 20+ Year Treasury is up while the S&P 500 is down 3%. The same trade nobody wanted in January is the only one working in March. After three years of pain, Treasury investors are...
This is not proof that investors expect CPI above 5% @MikeDorning 1-year breakeven inflation spike is a stress gauge distorted by energy shock, liquidity, and risk premia Important signal? Yes. Clean inflation forecast? No #Inflation #Bonds #Breakevens #Oil #Markets
People ask about muni’s and I typically don’t have much to say. But now, looking at the deficits caused by absurd spending, and tax policies accelerating revenue erosion, I can say avoid all General Obligation muni’s in California, Illinois &...
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
$GOVT Treasury ETF down 2.2% last 3 weeks... that's almost its worst plunge since March 2022... which was a historic drop... @stockcharts https://t.co/AR2FifcXyx
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
$TNX Monthly. Head-fake lower last month. Surge higher this month. At apex of multi-year triangle. This is ideal bullish setup for rates on 10-Year to explode higher https://t.co/aCdWZY5Kd9
So how has the plan by @SecScottBessent to not term out the debt and keep rolling bills worked out?
The 10y10y forward Treasury yield (red) is rising towards its historical highs. If only we'd brought our deficit under control after COVID, then we'd now have more gas in the tank for emergency spending. But we didn't. Reckless fiscal policy...
"Foreign investors added $28bn of Treasuries in 4Q25, the softest quarterly pace of demand since 4Q19" --JPM
Last year, a 4.50%-4.60% on the 10-year yield got the White House To Blink, with stocks falling. Now higher oil prices 🧙♂️🪄
