Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Been a while since I pulled this chart up....but this is my TIPs replication symphony on Composer plotted vs TIP https://t.co/6sUc1nkdUT https://t.co/msvzs0T9F1
5s30s just took out the low from Monday. Back end flattening aggressively post auction https://t.co/KwTSaaxDhY
JP Morgan has launched a basket of credit default swaps designed to let hedge funds bet against the debt of $GOOGL, $AMZN, $ORCL, $META, and $MSFT 👀 https://t.co/snSNwBvm2p
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
2s and 5s low of the day before the 7yr auction. Not too surprising after two tailing auctions but obviously weekend angst major driver.
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore...
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
Norway pivots toward a hike after keeping its rate steady at 4% https://t.co/NIIgGpvVNO via @ottummelas https://t.co/RxPhCKi99b
Most young Nigerians do not know that the Federal Government of Nigeria is literally offering them a safe investment starting from just ₦5,000. FGN Savings Bonds are one of the most underutilized investments in Nigeria. The offer opens every month. The minimum is...
Macro: convertible issuance funds growth but signals investor caution. Key: Liberty upsized $475M 0% convertibles due 2032, $37.44 conv (~30% premium). Risks: dilution, unsecured notes, redemption triggers. Trading insight: avoid new longs pre-conversion. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
The IG index spread of 84bps is now back near unchanged levels since February 27 https://t.co/44eACVJ587
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Where Have All the Hedges Gone? - @psarofagis channeling Paula Cole into a timely note today re how once again bonds fell with stocks. This time gold fell too. This is why Money Mkt Funds and Buffer ETFs are increasingly...
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
BOOM: Invesco to Acquire Superstate's USTB Tokenized MMF Management One of first acquisitions of a crypto-native fund by TradFi asset manager. TradFi now majority of top 10 tokenized MMFs $2.2T asset manager Invesco acquiring management of $USTB ($950M AUM, 5th largest tokenized...
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
It may be tempting to think that the rise in yields is the product of a US-centric dynamic (relating to OPEC recycling no/fewer petrodollars into Treasuries), but the next chart shows that yields are rising everywhere. This is global reset,...
Which bond titan ditched a Ph.D. for punk rock, emailed his way into Wall Street, then built a $135B fortress overnight?
UST 5y auction will be interesting after a nasty 2y yesterday. Some news cross-currents may have affected clean bidding for 2s which should be a factor for 5s today as well. Also more of a concession would be...
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Treasury Bills will not make you rich overnight. But they will grow your money safely, consistently and with zero drama; which is exactly what every young Nigerian investor needs as a foundation. Start lending to the government, and get paid.
Long yields broke out last week and finished the week at 4.39%. As I have written many times, nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets, as is now the case. https://t.co/mq0q2S2nBU
$TLT bleeding $1.2B. $HYG losing $623M. Credit spreads widening. Nobody is buying the dip in bonds. What do they know? $LQD $BND https://t.co/88YFIH3YtD
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q
Municipal Closed End Funds feeling the Rate complex heat of higher yields as well as credit risk pressures turning up.
This raises an important question -- namely how should we understand ongoing demand for Treasuries from private investors abroad? 1/ https://t.co/IVZNahIfEc
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
Ares: 11.6% redemption requests. Honored 5%. Called it “aligned with the best interests of all stakeholders.” The stakeholders who wanted their money back might define “best interests” differently.
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next). My @morningjoe Chart
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
when they tell you that rising yields $TNX are bad for stocks $SPX, just tell'em they're wrong... https://t.co/xFoneNHg9i
"Bessent is obsessed with the 10-year. He can let the Brent Oil go up, but not the 10Y-Treasury." @perkinscr97 https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
