Bonds Under Fire, Yet Remain Reliable Anti‑Growth Asset
Man my feed is hating on bonds today. Bad takes everywhere "The death of" every portfolio that includes bonds story "Inflation B/E's" unanchored. "10 year returns on TLT" or "Global Fixed Income" negative "Why would you own bonds" Imho bonds are meh looking forward BUT their performance recently, over the last 10 years, over the past 100 years are pretty much exactly what one would expect given the outcome of the principal drivers. They are a reliable anti growth disinflationary asset relative to expectations. There was a stupid bubble in bonds when rates were zero or close but no different than other asset bubbles.
10‑Year Inflation Expectation Peaks at 2.5%
Inflation expectations over the next 10 years have risen to the highest level since 2023, to 2.5%, according to breakeven rates. https://t.co/x2ujJFz6iY
UK 10‑Year Yield Premium Hits Growth, Treasury
The yield gap between UK and German 10-year government bonds is now nearly two full percentage points ( Bloomberg data below). While global yields are up across the board, the economic implications differ: This "UK premium" creates a bigger headwind for domestic...
Hedgeye Signals Bond Volatility Breakout, Review at 9 AM
Big @Hedgeye TREND Breakout for Bond Market Vol that I'll review on The Macro Show 9AM https://t.co/niZaSORuLS
RBA Raises Rates to 2024 High Amid Stubborn Inflation
JUST IN: Australia's central bank hikes rates to the highest since 2024 as inflation remains elevated.
Bond Yields Rise, Yet Manufacturing Gains Momentum
Bond yields are rising on inflation fears while factory orders just posted their strongest gain in months and manufacturing keeps expanding. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ra2hKn68G2
Bond Market Flags Risk as 30‑Year Yield Tops 5%
The 30-Year Treasury yield closed above 5% today and it not far from its highest level in more than a decade. The stock market may be ignoring Iran and Inflation, but the bond market is not. Video: https://t.co/2JUqFjVZ49
30‑Year Yield Breaks 5%, War Sparks Bond Vigilantes
Today, the U.S. 30-year benchmark bond yield pierced the important 5% resistance level, ending at 5.02%. Bonds severely underperform in wartime. With the war on Iran, the bond vigilantes ride again. They will teach WARMONGER Trump a lesson. https://t.co/sNxVUqdYwF
Fed's Dual Mandate Fuels Record Long-Term Rate Surge
Long-term Exploitation of Extraordinary Monetary Policy Tools, a Fed utilizing either side of it's Dual Mandate to justify lower, a lack of inflation, including CPI & PCE understating reality, helped foster the continuation of an incredible LT bull market in...
Rate Rebound Signals Bond Market Nearing Bottom
Hearing a lot of "the backup in rates" ... so you know we are near a bond bottom
Critical Rate Threshold Threatening Big‑Cap Tech Stocks
At what level would long term interest rates need to be to negatively impact big cap tech stocks? $NDX
Long-Term Government Bonds Yield Negative Returns Since 2013
Long-term government bonds now have a negative return over the past 11 years (including the income) Also still currently in a 40% drawdown from the 2020 highs https://t.co/wxhG5NhiM6
Oil Drives Bond Volatility, Raising Yields
Oil's impact on the bond market I would argue that oil (blue) is driving bond volatility (orange), not the other way around. That means wider daily ranges and, given the current environment, higher yields (>volatility = higher yields). https://t.co/oUEp8B4rEQ
Treasury Yields Surge; Fed Cuts Needed to Reach 6%
Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats. Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield...
Rising Rates ETF Hits All‑Time High, Volume Surges
New all-time highs for this Rising Rates ETF that we put on the map (see when the volume spiked?) and @ProShares didn't even send me chocolates... $EQRR https://t.co/wMMrGk2rwf
Zero‑probability Odds Rise with T‑bill Yields
While we should all hope for the return of the Lord and Savior, unfortunately, rising "odds" only reflect an increase in T-bill yields. Zero probability events should trade in line with the risk free rate + a platform and liquidity risk...
Long-Term Bond Duration Crushing Returns, Apple 2060 Halves
Duration is another hard asset driver - nearly every person on earth in long-term bonds has been losing money since 2022. *Apple 2.55s due 2060: 105 to 53. https://t.co/yTyInoASv4
Bond Sector ETFs Flop as BondBloxx Liquidates
BondBloxx is liquidating their bond sector ETFs. Another failed attempt to make bond sectors a thing. Sectors are massive on equity side, but no one cares with bonds. ht @Todd_Sohn https://t.co/eX05YKGaAl
SOFR Shows Near‑Zero Rate Cuts as Hidden Stimulus Fuels Growth
As of today, SOFR curve is pricing in ~ 8 bps of cuts in 2027 and ~2 bps of cuts in 2028. Cuts have finally been priced out as there is very little basis for them. Policymakers are using more...
Fermat Backs ADB's Inaugural Catastrophe Bonds for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
Fermat Capital Management has invested in the Asian Development Bank’s first-ever catastrophe bonds, designed to shield Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan against specific types of natural disasters https://t.co/JQ1cwhqjzw
Know Management, Costs, Risks Before Choosing Bond ETFs
JUST IN: Total bond market ETFs differ in management, costs, and risks, so know these before adding one to your portfolio.
Goldman Forecasts $400B AI Bond Supply Mid-Year
JUST IN: Goldman projects about $400 billion of gross AI-related supply in USD IG and HY markets from mid.
Treasury May Signal Earlier Coupon Issuance This Year
I know we're all HormuzMaxxing, but it is Quarterly Refunding week and there is a small chance Treasury might signal an increase in coupon issuance later this year instead of 2027. We'll know Wed morning.
US Debt Soars to $1 Quadrillion; Bitcoin Remains Undervalued
US debt will hit 1 QUADRILLION dollars by 2070. That's 1,000 trillion dollars. Growing at 7.6% per year, that's $87,685 added every second. Interest alone is now $981 billion per year. #Bitcoin is undervalued.
TIPS‑Bond Spread Signals Inflation, Boosting Oil Prices
TIPS relative to bonds are suggesting a higher inflationary world, which it turns out means higher oil. https://t.co/7lvC0M2pIk
US Bond Market Endures Record 69-Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 69 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/Y1cdWffv71
Fed Cautious After 3.5% PCE, Buy
Fed cautious after PCE 3.5%: services inflation and oil/geopolitics lift risks; divided FOMC delays cuts. Trade: buy short‑duration Treasuries. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fixed‑Income Remains Durable Amid Geopolitical Shifts
Marc Seidner, @PIMCO's CIO of Non-Traditional Strategies, has spent four decades navigating markets. Earlier this year, he said, “I think this is one of the most interesting, possibly one of the most durable environments for fixed-income investing.” My conversation with Marc walks through...
Leveraged Treasuries Offer Minimal Return, Low Sharpe
With fixed pay legs of 10 Year swaps recieving 3.93% with swap spread at 43bp with Kim term premium at 65bp Leveraged bond buyers only get 23bp of expected return vs cash. This on a 5% vol item. Sharpe Ratio...
TIPS and High‑Yield Bonds Preserve Purchasing Power
Bond Funds That Have Offered Some Inflation Protection ➡️Returns data indicate that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) funds and high-yield bond funds offered purchasing power protection during the past decade (including the recent inflationary period), while many investors in short- and...
Mideast Energy Crisis Pushes Fed Toward Dovish Stance
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
Aggressive 1x2 Put Spread Targets 5.75% Yield
Added a pretty big 1x2 put spread on ZB today. 84 days Max payout at 30 year yield of 5.20. B/e of 5.6 yield and will stop at 5.75 yield. Overheat mostly covered.
Balancing CEF Trades Amid NY Muni Uncertainty
@cate_long Any thoughts on NY Muni's.......... I follow and trade a bunch of CEF's and have been selling some based on Disco's and near 52 week highs. Same time adding to others (Swapping into) based on cheap 52 wk price comparison...
Prioritize Time Horizon Over Rate Forecasts in Bonds
When It Comes To Bonds, Don't Be A Hero: Why taking a strategic approach to bond investments based on an investor's time horizon and cash needs could be superior to a tactical approach focused on anticipating future interest rate moves....
Monthly Chart Shows TLT Outperforming Value Pitches
a few monthly charts i thought i'd share... #monthlycharts although there have been many pitching U.S. treasury (bonds) for value, the chart speaks... $TLT https://t.co/3VMEeufVcn
Buy Preferred CEFs at 5%+ Discount for Strong Yield
Macro: Preferreds yield high amid income hunt. Drivers: CEF discounts, leverage, tax treatment. Risks: rate sensitivity, leverage, term‑fund liquidation. Trade: buy preferred CEFs trading ≥5% discount for monthly yield. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
FSK Trades at Half Book Amid Massive Losses
The $FSK setup: > Stock at $10.51 vs. $20.89 reported NAV > $517M in realized losses over five quarters > PIK at 34% of NII > 21 names on non-accrual > Bonds got downgraded to junk Stock trades at ~0.54x of book while...
Lender Concessions Halve as Redemptions Surge
Direct lender concessions just collapsed. Q4 2025: 67% of lenders made borrower-friendly concessions to win deals. Q1 2026: 31%. The discipline showed up the moment the redemptions started. Funny timing. Source: William Blair
Bondholders' Holdout Triggers Spirit Airlines' Liquidation
Spirit Airlines is shutting down. The bondholders had two choices: 1. Take 10% of the equity in a Trump-backed reorg. 2. Hold out for more and risk liquidation. They held out. The cash ran out. Liquidation it is.
Foreign Central Banks Stopped US Treasury Purchases; Domestic Funding Rises
Multiple things are simultaneously true: 1) Foreign public sector (central banks) are not buying US treasuries for over a decade, led by China. 2) Foreign private sector is still buying treasuries. 3) Foreign buying is not keeping up with issuance, so more is...
Debt Load Triples, Threatening Medallia’s AI Rebuild
Rising rates and PIK nearly doubled Medallia’s interest payments (see table below) Then taking on even more debt for acquisitions made it nearly 3x. Hard to rebuild for AI with that debt requirements… https://t.co/86MT1yj7Yo
UST Auctions Trigger Record MOVE Spike and VIX Surge
The Great MOVE UST Volatility Crash of April 2026: Blue = MOVE; red = VIX; green = Oil Mar 24, 25, 26 = 3 straight ugly UST auctions Mar 26 = MOVE hits 115 (near dysfunctional levels) Mar 27 = MOVE & VIX peak...
Takaichi's Low‑Rate Push Risks JGBs, Only Hikes Cure
Takaichi wants to intervene in markets to mitigate inflation, but keep rates low to support her agenda. JGBs will suffer until she realizes hiking rates is the only way to durably keep inflation in check and support JPY. Bank lending has...
Meta's $96B Bond Demand Amid 8.6% Stock Drop
fun when bond and stock investors say different things Meta fielded $96 billion in orders for its $25 billion bond sale yesterday as shares sold off by 8.6% post-earnings https://t.co/gYzRG1K7Mr
Explore 19th‑Century Railway Bond Boom in New Podcast
If you’re interested in a sneak preview of my upcoming book A FABULOUS DEBT, we recorded a whole podcast on one of the chapters — the stupendously large 19th railway bond boom, the Panic of 1873 and the fall of...
Kashkari Urges Fed to Keep Policy Flexible Amid Iran War
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: "Why I dissented" He says the policy statement should signal the next rate move could be a cut or a hike given the broader range of outcomes from the Iran war. He lays out two modalities: a...
Derivatives Trim BoC Rate Outlook by 22bps, Hikes Discounted
5 G10 central banks met this week and they all delivered to varying extents hawkish holds. The derivatives market adjusted expectations for this year’s course by 22 bp for the Bank of Canada. Two hikes are now...
Households Shift to Short-Term Bonds After 2024 Rate Cuts
"Since the Fed started cutting interest rates in 2024, households have been buying the front end of the yield curve and selling the long end" -Apollo Slok
Bunds Turn Overbought as ROC Flips up in Range
Bunds = OD up...quite a response for first flip up on ROC in trading range... https://t.co/fRfsIeT9Hd
Mayor Mamdani May Use DSA Rhetoric Over Bond Downgrade
We are still in city/state budget season and anything can happen. One potential "anything" is ... does Mamdani, like most mayors, run away from the prospect of any bond downgrade? Or does he employ this as part of a long-held...