SGAT Convertible at 8.625% Coupon Trades at 60
SGAT had a convertible bond back in the day that I had a big position in. I think it had an 8 5/8 coupon and trade at 60.
2020‑Peak US Bonds Lose 30‑50% Real Value
If you bought 10 year US bonds near the peak in 2020, on an after inflation basis, you're still down 30% six years later. If you bought 30 year US bonds instead, you're down over 50%.
State AGs Question ESG Influence on Credit Downgrades
A group of state attorneys general wrote to the US SEC and major credit-rating firms, raising concerns about the use of environmental, social and governance factors in downgrade decisions https://t.co/YAjBFb3EC0
Survey Flags High Credit Risk, yet IG Spreads Stay Low
In @steveliesman FOMC survey, 70% of respondents labeled systemic credit risk as "extremely elevated or "somewhat elevated." How can you possibly square that with IG credit spreads 80bps in the bottom quintile? https://t.co/1lJyASMnM1
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 202 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.38% Same day last year: 6.82% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.36% Spread today: 202 bps
Trump’s Spirit Deal Sets New Restructuring Playbook
Trump's offer for Spirit: $500M 1L loan, 90% of the equity via warrants. Bondholders fighting over the leftover 10%. This is the new restructuring playbook.
ECB Inaction Could Erode Short‑term Euro Bond Yields
If the ECB does not deliver the almost 70 basis points, or 0.7 percentage points, of rate hikes that markets expect this year, the current yields on short-term European government bonds may not stick around https://t.co/QLIVYNAWdI https://t.co/Te5FjKUzWR
Overweight USTs Now; Watch QRA for Future Issuances
USTs have tracked their seasonal bias closely this year. Now is a favorable time to go overweight, window is from late April to early May. QRA next week is my big concern in case Treasury projects larger...
AI Triggers Credit Cycle Shift, Targeting Software First
Q1 funding liquidity shock reflects a turn in the credit cycle because of AI, says Carlyle Credit markets are targeting software first because AI can replace it fastest. This isn’t broad disruption yet. It’s targeted repricing where revenue is most exposed. #AI...
Corporate Bonds Surge 30%; Private Credit Squeezes Bank Loans
U.S. corporate bond issuance very strong, 30% growth Bank loan market struggling because private credit eating their lunch https://t.co/SAfuthERyB
Higher Inflation Dampens S&P 500, IG, HY Returns
"Periods of higher inflation are associated with weaker returns in the S&P 500 and the IG and HY indexes, consistent with a policy backdrop of elevated interest rates that restrain risk-taking" -Apollo Slok
USD Firm, Oil Climbs, Yields Rise, BOJ Holds
$USD is firmer across the board. Oil is higher for the 6th session in the past 7. 10-year yields are higher. BOJ left policy on hold with a 6-3 vote but Gov Ueda failed to confirm the...
Wall Street Banks Become Top Treasury Buyers Since 2007
The marginal buyer of US govt debt=== Wall Street banks boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007 https://t.co/aqL3AAsZf9
China Plans Another London Green Sovereign Bond Sale
China is considering another green sovereign bond sale in London this year as Beijing looks to expand its presence in international debt markets https://t.co/gUiG7ZPz7n
High‑Yield Bonds Can Mask Non‑existent Cash
Pro tip: if a bond trades at >10% yield with a net cash balance sheet… the cash might not be real
Dalio Warns Warsh's Fed Appointment Would Risk Premature Rate Cuts
Ray Dalio thinks “it would be a mistake” if Kevin Warsh comes to the Fed and tries to cut rates now https://t.co/WruNFHVCli
AI‑driven Growth Outpaces Bond Market Optimism
Thrilled to have @BasilHalperin join the podcast. Three big points discussed: (1) AI could supercharge growth, but bond markets aren’t buying the hype as evidence by real interest rates; (2) inflation targeting not an optimal response to AI supercharged growth......
Yield‑Yen Trade‑off Fuels Accelerating Inflation Pressure
Yields and yen are most important here. Policymakers have been suppressing 5% US 30yr and 160 USDJPY at the cost of increasing inflation. Inflation pressures are now boiling at a faster rate and will force policymakers to choose one or...
Coupon UST Auctions Surge Ahead as Front‑End Pressure Eases
With FOMC on Wed, coupon UST auctions pulled ahead with double trouble today (2s and 5s). A bit of front-end pressure overnight that seems to be easing. Should go well with Warsh's nomination back on track
WeightWatchers Cuts $40M Debt, Saves $5M Interest
Weightwatchers to pay down $40m in debt. This is material for owner earnings as it should lead to annual interest expense savings of ~$5 million. $WW https://t.co/QVs2CKLPKy
Credit Spreads Rebound, Easing Crash Concerns
Nice report from @scottcharts this morning. This one stood out, as credit spreads have quickly recovered. Even four weeks ago, one of the reasons we didn't expect a major crash like so many was spreads were still relatively calm. Follow credit...
Japan 10‑Year Yield Hits New Cycle High
Too much politics for Tourists to focus on the entire picture of the universe, but Japan's 10yr Yield just ramped to new Cycle Highs https://t.co/tchYLfwtl8
Treasury Sales Surge, Inflation Beats T‑Bill Yields
US Government Sold $524 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. Inflation to Surpass T-Bill Yields. Brutal Bond Math The effects of Tax Day. The 10-Year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, 30-Year Treasury yield to 4.91% https://t.co/NSPwUq5RC8 https://t.co/v0dwKukdIK
Goldman Predicts Two More Fed Cuts, Dismisses Hikes
GS: Our Probability-Weighted Fed Forecast Is Much More Dovish Than Market Pricing Because We Expect Two More Cuts This Year and Because We Think That Rate Hikes Are Quite Unlikely https://t.co/JZZ2VNnLfU
1-Year Inflation Swap Peaks; Stocks Hit All-Time Highs
The 1-year inflation swap is now at the highest level since last September Stocks all-time highs. @augurinfinity https://t.co/HrFvA54Sd7
Hyperscalers Issue $110bn Debt, Exceeding Forecasts
BofA: Hyperscalers have issued $110bn in debt so far in 2026, sharply above forecasts https://t.co/aIc0cIvDl0
Starmer Credibility Dip Fuels Gilt Short‑sell Recommendation
Starmer faces credibility hit after Mandelson appointment; civil service strained, governance risk ahead of local elections may lift GBP and gilt volatility. Trading insight: sell short gilts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Downgrade Exposes Weaknesses in China’s Credit Ratings
Caixin: "A sudden downgrade of a state-backed financing vehicle in eastern China is exposing weaknesses in the country’s credit rating industry, raising concerns over hidden risks in the local government debt market." https://t.co/HjgmNQTIdy
Yield Curve Signals Growth Concerns Amid New Inflation Data
Treasury yields are shifting as traders digest fresh inflation data and Fed signals. The 10-year is moving on growth worries. Keep an eye on the curve for clues on what’s next. 📉💰 BondMarket
Chinese State Banks Boost Dollar Holdings, Fuel US Asset Demand
Gonna keep repeating this until it registers -- The PBOC may or may not be reducing its real Treasury holdings; it could just be moving out of US custodians But the state banks are clearly adding to their dollar portfolios, and thus...
Treasury Swaps Shield GCC, Preventing UST Yield Spike
An important point of view (on Treasury-supplied USD swaps for GCC countries) comes from our very own, @GraphCall: https://t.co/RHN9TFGR1f This exchange of currency - without selling held collateral - avoids a GCC-forced dump of UST to get liquidity while oil revenue sales...
BoE's Rapid Bond Unwind Fuels UK's Higher Yields
The UK isn't the fiscal basket case it's made out to be. During the LDI crisis in 2022, the Bank of England kicked asset managers to the curb. It's also unwound its gov't bond holdings way faster than other central...
Macron Calls EU Debt Rollover Essential, Not Optional
Macron says it would be ‘silly’ not to roll over EU Covid-era debt https://t.co/7Nctd2XiKo via @Newsbaum @NikasSotiris https://t.co/62p9hqman4
Japan's Debt Trap Leaves Yen as Sole Release Valve
Japan is trapped. ~230% debt/GDP. BOJ owns 50%+ of the JGB market. Deeply negative real rates. The Yen is weakening despite rising yields because the market knows they can't meaningfully hike without triggering a fiscal crisis. The currency is the...
FedWatch Shows 84% Chance of 2026 Rate Cut
FedWatch now pricing 84% odds of a rate cut in 2026. I am old enough to remember when the market was pricing in 0% in March, and I won't be surprised when this goes back to zero. Time will tell.
Redeem NAV, Buy Discounted Public BDC: Simple Arbitrage
Redeeming a nontraded BDC at NAV and buying the corresponding public one at a discount. Funny WSJ is calling this an "arbitrage."
10-Year Yield Rises After Powell Probe Dropped
10yr bond yield relative to CNBC's announcement at 10:17am ET that investigation into Powell has been dropped (clearing the way for Warsh) src for intra-day chart: BBG https://t.co/TpnqqO9bLw https://t.co/UOy5Qt22Dt
2‑Year Yield Leads Curve Steepening After DOJ News
No great surprise that the curve steepened on the DOJ news. 2y the king here outpacing the belly with even 2s5s a touch steeper
Fed Could Cut Rates in June to Avoid Instability
Fed might cut rates in June, not because inflation is beaten, but to dodge a financial stability risk. Cooling jobs data + oil spikes that are "transitory" could tip the scales. Keeping an eye on the May jobs report. 🧠💰...
Foreign Private Capital Now Outpaces Central Banks in Treasuries
Yup, Foreign Private Capital Has Overtaken Central Banks in the Treasury Market h/t Apollo/Slok And @Econimica has the breakdown below https://t.co/O8Md1T2160
Yields Rise as Market Tests New Fed Chair
The market often tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts. BofA Hartnett https://t.co/uJHPiLrNsf
Three Rate Hikes Flatten Curve, Buying Duration Risk
+ 1 ... at more than two hikes priced, the curve really should be flat as a pancake if not inverted (in Z6/Z7 space). At +3 hikes, I think you are buying the belly/duration.
Eurozone Inflation at 3% Forces ECB to Hold, Stagflation Returns
Decidedly grim survey data in the Eurozone for April nails the ECB's decision for a hold next week, despite another increase in inflation, to around 3%. Stagflation economics is back; did it ever leave?
Dim Sum Bond Borrowing Hits Record RMB300bn This Year
FT: "Total borrowing in so-called dim sum bonds — issued outside the mainland, mostly in Hong Kong, and denominated in renminbi — has hit Rmb300bn ($44 bn) so far this year, more than twice the amount at this point in...
Worst Bond Cycle Makes Credit Rotation Essential
Every portfolio manager has a fund they believe in more than the market does. For me, that's $JOJO. The worst bond cycle in a generation is exactly why credit rotation matters. https://t.co/5FJoUQuUwE
Credit Investors Snap up BDC Bonds as Retail Exits Equity
Third BDC bond deal in eight days. All oversubscribed. All priced tighter than talk. Credit investors are buying the liability stack while retail is trying to exit the equity below it
Governor's Yes Risks Investor Credibility Amid Rising Taxes
If the governor says "yes" to this, she should have no credibility with investors in the city's debt. New York's tax revenues are rising. If gimmicks like this are necessary now, what happens when tax revenues stop rising? https://t.co/KGqlxU5QuC https://t.co/0Eah2RLkKQ
Monday Double Front-End Auctions Pressure
King Lear's Truth Social musings may be obscuring it a bit, but double front-end auctions on Monday weighing on 2s and 5s
Fed's Balance Sheet Fix: Impact Is Modest
The impact of completely correcting the UST duration holdings of the Fed 101🧵 Despite the warnings and hyperventilation of the usual suspects, correcting the Fed's balance sheet is just not that big a deal. Today the balance sheet has a...
JOJO Leverages Utilities Signals for Credit Rotation
Advisors looking for differentiation in fixed income: $JOJO uses utilities sector signals to rotate between risk-on and risk-off credit. Systematic, transparent, and timely. https://t.co/vNSFE0Fce0