Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Last year, a 4.50%-4.60% on the 10-year yield got the White House To Blink, with stocks falling. Now higher oil prices 🧙♂️🪄
10y yield spikes as odd of rate hike before end of the year increases by 50% … Jerome Powell was right all along 😂
10Y yield is still ripping higher in a straight line from that brief 3 handle tease. Market says, tighter for longer. $TNX $IEF https://t.co/dbZrSwrwwr
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
The 10-year couldn't close above 4.3% yesterday, but is trying again this morning. Lot of whipsaws (in both directions) with this chart, but this would sure look like a breakout https://t.co/17G6Y8TtLa
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
For for first time this cycle, a small rate increase by the Fed is now priced in by year end, 12%. And no rate cuts anymore
Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL https://t.co/boVD8nEW6E
Reeves, Miliband and Bell will look at Gilts and go ... we need to spend more and raise taxes.
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
it's 6am. i'm drinking black coffee. a @tradingview alert just buzzed in my pocket and appeared on my screen to tell me the Canada 5-year yield just broke out to 14-month highs > ~3.1%... 🧐 cool. https://t.co/IHj3aa1dV0
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
At the back of the yield curve, yields are moving higher across the board, and the UK 10-year GILT yield is testing the cycle highs from 2022. UK and US yields generally move in similar fashion, so this is something...
The chart below shows that high yield spreads appear to have broken out of its longstanding range. https://t.co/XDtyd2lmpz
The heatmap below shows that expectations of further rate cuts have all but vanished. Meanwhile, stress in the credit markets continues to mount with both investment grade and high yield spreads making new wides, and the private credit sensitive equities...
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
S&P to Cliffwater: if you keep honoring redemptions above 5%, we might downgrade you. So the choice is: gate your investors and keep your rating, or pay your investors and lose it. The product design is now working against itself.
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
"Wave digital is going to issue the first rated bond COLLATERALIZED by Bitcoin," says @EmanAbio https://t.co/oU2EeDw6Mf
1.89 10 year tips real yield. Meh. Not much return yet in the benchmark asset on earth. Less than 3 months ago.
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
I mean, why would they signal this when they just got ahead of the curve with their new forecasts ... I have two hikes in my fct (in June/July), but judging by the overall tone today and new forecasts I...
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
It's funny that long term US treasuries is where people are putting their money today. They make more folks.
The 2024 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get paid. The 2026 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get stuck with new money that’s now also distressed.
Why is the UK always the source of curve instability? Brexit, Truss and now this
UK 2 year yield + 23bps UK 5 year yield +22bps UK 10 year yield +13bps About that fiscal headroom 🤔
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
Remember my Manifesto? He’s legally elected FOMC Chair through December 31, 2026 regardless of who’s Chair of the Fed Board “Powell would also be eligible as a governor to remain in charge of rate-setting FOMC, potentially extending his influence over monetary...
Two-year Treasury yields up to 3.731% for the session and at some of the highest levels of the past three months https://t.co/yjJZJiv8JX
the significant part is Powell's relatively lukewarm support for looking through energy prices. 5 years of missing their target is clearly bothering them. They are gonna need to see genuine economic weakness to cut again
USTs pressured lower by Powell's comment that breakeven rate for new jobs is very low
So mid-year is when we should start to see progress on core inflation. Probably resets “good news” cut clock to like September.
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut. https://t.co/7odcQloUt0
A rate hike in 2026 is on the board for the first time in the futures market.
Expectations are building for a rate cut There’s a 37% probability the June FOMC will cut 25bps Powell has been the last line holding rates as President Trump publicly pushed to lower June is also the first Fed meeting where Powell is not...
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
FOMC day and "extended pause" hedging pressuring whites. 2026 cuts down to 23 bps. Of course, Fed has an opportunity reset all of this via FOMC statement, SEP, and presser. Should be a fun day https://t.co/pMoJFfaIiY
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
