Global Rates Surge; Japan's 10‑year Hits 29‑year High
Rates all over the world are rising sharply. Japan is at a 29 year high at 2.75% on the 10y - a big jump recently. https://t.co/VKPasXtuRE
BOJ May Ease QT Amid Rising JGB Yields
Macro: BOJ may temper QT as JGB selloff lifts yields and stresses fiscal funding. BOJ holds ~49% of JGBs; June rate risk raises volatility. Trade: shorten JGB duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Lower Short Rates Could Steepen Curve; TIPS Safest
I suspect that any reduction in short rates would serve to exacerbate this weakness. Yield curve would simply steepen further. TIPS may be the only safe haven here.
Stablecoins Emerging as Marginal Treasury Buyers, Extending Durations
This narrative of stablecoins being the marginal buyer of Treasuries reflects the shift in long-dated duration in the market. 💯 -- Gordon Liao, who used to work at the Fed Board https://t.co/diucbra2xz
Higher‑for‑Longer Rates Shatter Goldilocks Bond Outlook
Inflation came in hot, and the bond market officially lost its cool. 📈🔥 Yields spiked, rate cut bets got pushed back, and the "Goldilocks" narrative took a hit. Higher-for-longer is the new normal. BondMarket
IG Credit Spreads
IG credit spreads basically back to 4Q2025 tights--in the 8th percentile of all history. https://t.co/SoC6HFk7mE
Diversify $10M T‑Bill Portfolio to Reduce Reinvestment Risk
Interesting question - can someone TBill and Chill on $10 million? The answer is: MAYBE? I think a good financial advisor would press this person to take some duration risk, diversify more into equities and longer bonds or alts to...
Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals on the Economy
Thread starter: the bond market is telling two stories. Story 1 — 10Y yield at 4.59% says monetary policy is restrictive and term premium is back. Story 2 — HY credit OAS at 276 bps says default risk is muted...
Tight Treasury Yields and Credit Spreads Signal Imminent Break
Here's the contradiction nobody's discussing — 10-year Treasury yields sit at 4.59%, above the long-term average of 4.25%. That signals tight monetary policy or term premium expansion. At the same time high-yield credit spreads are at 276 basis points, near...
10Y Yield
10Y at 4.59% above long-term avg of 4.25%. HY spreads at 276 bps tight to history. Bond market priced for perfection on both sides of the curve.
Term Premium Surge Quietly Drives 30-Year Yield Spike
10-year Treasury yield April 24: 4.31%. May 14: 4.47%. Sixteen basis points in three weeks. VIX over the same window: 16.89 to 17.26. Equity vol thinks nothing happened. Bond vol disagrees. The 30-year is back at 2007 levels per AP. That...
Escape Velocity Tool Shows Optimal 4.54‑Year Duration
I did a small update on our bond escape velocity tool. This shows the theoretically optimal point on the yield curve (or where your duration risk is limited). We added a shock scenario analysis and historical background on how escape...
Quarter of US Debt Matures Amid Rising Yields
With yields surging recently: Here is a reminder that more than a quarter of all US federal debt will mature over the next 12 months. The clock is ticking, and this is likely to become a central focus for policymakers in the...
Massive Treasury Sale Sparks Yield Spike, Fed Lags
US Government Sold $691 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 10-Year Yield Spikes to 4.6%, 30-Year Yield to 5.12% as 2nd Wave of Inflation Takes Off. The Fed is “behind the curve,” and the bond market is getting nervous https://t.co/ibFFTlMODv https://t.co/K9WhKU6pvt
Fed Resumes Treasury Purchases, Boosting Asset Prices
The Federal Reserve started buying more Treasuries again. This has been underreported by the media. Presumably things like wars are much better for audience numbers... Towards the end of last year, the Federal reserve started buying more short-term bonds (T-bills) whilst...
Long‑term Yields Finally Correct Unsustainable Oil‑spike Pricing
This week's global spike in long-term yields is about an unwind of something that was unsustainable. When oil prices spiked months ago, money market curves (blue) priced central bank hikes, but long-term yields (red) didn't rise. That's now correcting... https://t.co/wLyQataCjN https://t.co/IUcD0KAzNo
Iran War Pushes 30‑Year Treasury Yield to 5%
The US government has sold 30-year debt at a 5% yield for the first time since 2007. Trump's war in Iran has caused interest rates & gov’t debt servicing costs to SURGE. https://t.co/myca5WwJEG
30-Year Yields Likely Rise, Boosting Retiree Income
1Y ago I was talking about the coiling of the 30Y and cautioned against trading the 5% level. Today the 30Y has moved meaningfully past 5%. It may come back, or it may go higher as inflation fears kick in again. We...
MSTR Secures 5.5% Yield Debt, Financed at 11.5%
Essentially the company bought back debt at 5.54 fiat yield which they raised proceeds at 11.5% So here's the math. $MSTR paid 92 for these bonds That price is calc by dividing what they paid 1.38BN by the notional they bought...
30-Year Yield Hits Bush-Era
The last time the 30-year yield traded at this level, George W Bush was President. Let's see if it closes at this level (5 PM ET). https://t.co/WKu0a9lHZB
30‑
Bond yields are surging without the Fed raising rates: 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%, highest in nearly a year.
Rising Rates Across Curve Pose Major Macro Threat
Rates are moving to new highs across the curve. Rates moving higher is my biggest macro concern. Written a lot about it. https://t.co/s8dO9I94jX
2‑Year Yield 38bps Above Fed Funds, Historically Normal
2yr yield 4.01%... 38bps above the Fed Funds rate... which is historically extremely normal https://t.co/vo9smDHjd9
Inversion Signals Recession, yet Fed‑driven, Not Deflationary
10Y Treasury Yield−3M Treasury Bill Yield A deep inversion followed by re-steepening has historically been one of the best recession warning signals. But this cycle was driven primarily by extreme short-rate tightening from the Fed, not by a collapse in long-term inflation...
Japan's Record 30-Year Yield Warns US Debt Crisis
Japan’s 30-year bond yield has spiked to 3.78% - the highest level on record. A preview of what’s coming for the US if we don’t get our deficit/debt spiral under control. The chickens eventually come home to roost. https://t.co/i3abDZvmBo
Japan's 30‑Year Yield Hits 1999 High, Yen Weakens
*JAPAN 30-YR YIELD RISES TO 3.885%, HIGHEST SINCE 1999 DEBUT seriously how is the yen so weak?
Fed Quietly Resumed QE, Adding $200B to Balance Sheet
An under appreciated regime change is that the Federal Reserve quietly restarted Quantitative Easing (QE) in December by expanding its balance sheet. The Fed accumulates bonds, soaking up bonds that would otherwise go to the open market reducing money supply. ~$200B increase...
Rare 10‑Year Yield Dip Predicts Stock Gains
10-YEAR US TREASURY HITS 4.5% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 302 DAYS How rare is this? Well, since 1970, this is only the third time that the 10y has been below 4.5% for at least 200 trading days before going back...
Debt Surge to $232T Threatens Faster Interest Rate Rise
"...somewhere between a federal debt of today’s $31 trillion and the 30-year projected level of $232 trillion, a brutal cycle of rising interest rates followed by even faster-rising debt will likely be unleashed. Responsible lawmakers and taxpayers should not want...
G
Yields on 10y gilts have risen well above 5%, reaching their highest level since 2008 due to the UK government crisis. Keir Starmer's premiership appears to be hanging by a thread after his much-anticipated policy reset speech on Monday -...
USTs Enter Depression Phase, Accept Potential Rate Hike Cycle
Looks like USTs are past denial, anger and bargaining, and well on their way to depression and acceptance of the possibility of a hike cycle.
UK Bond Yields Surge to Cycle Highs
CHART OF THE DAY: UK Bond Yields Continue To Ramp To Cycle Highs https://t.co/1BC0xEY8uF via @hedgeye
April CPI Won’t Shift Fed, New Chair Faces Tough Odds
April CPI won't change minds at the Fed. But more of this will complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes. It's a tough inheritance for a new Fed...
UK 30-Year Gilt Yield Hits 1998 High
The yield on the UK 30-year gilt is at its highest level since 1998 https://t.co/zXuKq5q17b
Europe's Banks Deploy Smart Bond Contracts on Blockchain
European milestones for natively digital debt: 1️⃣ 🇩🇪: DZ BANK & KfW mapped the full lifecycle of a crypto bond on a public blockchain - proving Smart Bond Contracts can autonomously handle payments. https://t.co/3WAevr3yBs 2️⃣🇨🇭: Keyrock issued an on-chain corporate bond via Sygnum...
Dollar Weakens, Yields Rise: Loose Policy Warning
Dollar down, yields up. In normal times these are positively correlated. When they diverge and the currency weakens while bonds sell off, it's telling you policy is too loose. Japan has been ground zero for this dynamic. Watch closely to see...
Geopolitical Turmoil and Political Instability Drive Global Yield Surge
The rise in long-term gov't bond yields isn't about any one thing. There's unstable global geopolitics, with Iran the latest symptom. There's the collapse in politics as usual, with the UK in focus. All this pushes up 10y10y forward yields...
UK Political Uncertainty Drives Gilts Yield to 5.10%
Uncertain British politics = another step up in UK government bond yields. (This morning's selloff is sizeable, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.10%.) #economy #Markets #Gilts #UKEconomy #bonds #uk
UK Bond Yields Breakout Finally Arrives After Three Months
Macro Tourist Topic Of The Day = "UK Bond Yields" We've only been signaling this breakout for the last 3 months Go back to bed
UK Faces Finance Crisis: Yields Spike, Pound Falls
The "Liz Truss moment" of 2022 has turned into the UK's political reality, with 30-year yields soaring to their highest levels since 1998 and the pound weakening. "No matter who is in power, no matter their political leaning, there does...
UK Investors' Two‑month Nightmare Finally Hits Market
Literally the thing every UK investor has been worrying about for the past two months...
Expect Another Surge in Long-Term U.S. Rates
The Factor Report continues to note the potential for another higher thrust in long-term U.S. rates. Updates will be provided via the weekly Factor Update $ZB_F The Factor Report provides commentary on my personal positions as traded by Factor LLC. https://t.co/gDeM5nTRIY https://t.co/ST0wow86Xi
Warsh Nomination Sparks Fed Politicization, Prompting 10Y Selloff
Macro: Warsh nomination raises Fed politicization. Key: White House pressure, rate path, balance-sheet plans. Risk: policy uncertainty. Trade: shorten duration—sell 10Y Treasuries into June meeting. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Credit Spreads Hit Record Lows, Fueling Bull Market
Credit spreads continue to make new lows, which continues to support the overall bull market. Nice one in @scottcharts note today. https://t.co/hBCAXw2vsD
Commodity Boom Highlights Hidden QE via Treasury Mandate
One Year Silver $SLV +161% Copper Miners $COPX +124% Gold Miners $GDX +94% Uranium $URNM +80% Forcing the U.S. banks to buy $1T of Treasuries while claiming to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet is still QE. Financial repression.
10-Year Note Forms Bullish Cup‑Handle, Breakout Loom
$TNX Daily. Index for Rates on 10-Year Note. Chart patterns can & often do morph. Here, consolidation morphs to bullish cup & handle. Back over at least 4.7% threatens breakout https://t.co/gQXIqXWRgI
KKR Injects $150M, Backs FSK Amid Q1 Slump
$FSK Q1'26: > NAV -9.9% > Non-accruals: 3.4% -> 4.2% > Dividend cut from 48c to 42c KKR's response? $150M in preferred equity. $150M tender offer at $11. Plus a $300M buyback authorization and KKR waiving its incentive fees for 4 quarters.
Lenders Convert to Owners, Inject $100M Into Medallia
Somehow I missed this. The lenders are writing a $100M equity check into Medallia. Started as senior secured creditors. Now they own the company and are putting more money in. Never a good sign.
Gilts Tumble Amid Mounting Calls for Starmer’s Resignation
Gilts slide as calls grow for UK Prime Minister Starmer to step down https://t.co/ZbMuuzqQf2 via @alicegledhill1 @highisland https://t.co/ghgLaN250d
Fed Signals Cuts, Market Expects 2027 Hike—New Chair Faces Mismatch
The blue line is what the Fed is communicating. 2 rate cuts this year. The orange line is what the market is pricing in, a rate HIKE by Summer 2027. Warsh starts as Fed Chairman on Friday. High on his agenda...