Social•Feb 18, 2026
March 2Y Futures Expected Heavy Amid Nasty Roll
Great reminder futures rolls (H25 to M26) are upon us. Bottomline March 2y futs should be heavy. Roll is nasty at -4.5 which should add to the flattening pressure along with front-end auctions next week.
By Ed Bradford
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Fed Minutes Reveal Larger Faction Demanding Higher Cut Threshold
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 17, 2026
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Fed Rarely Cuts Rates During >8% Nominal Growth
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY
By Greg Ip
Social•Feb 17, 2026
New Projections Quiet Bond Vigilantes, Ease Debt Fears
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...
By Lisa Abramowicz
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Rate Moves Aren’t Driven by Current Data, ADP Shows
Big mistake is assuming move in rates is about current economic data. Reaction to ADP a good example
By Ed Bradford
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Global Bonds Yield Under 5%, Delivering ~2% Real Return
Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year." https://t.co/oCUWfCIGpn
By Lisa Abramowicz
Social•Feb 17, 2026
38% Expect Warsh Chair to Push Yields Higher, Dollar Lower
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
By Sam Ro
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Private Credit Bets on Software Amid AI Uncertainty
Five private credit firms just provided $1.4B for a software buyout of OneStream valued at $6.4B. Same week everyone’s asking whether AI will make these companies obsolete. The market is telling you software is at risk. The lenders are telling you...
By JunkBondInvestor
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Gold Overtakes Major Currencies as Dollar Reserve Share Plummets
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
By Global Markets Investor (newsletter author)
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Alphabet and Meta CDS Explode From Zero to Top Traders
A year ago, CDS on Alphabet and Meta didn't exist. Now they're among the most actively traded single-name contracts in the US market Nobody creates a default insurance market for fun... $GOOG $META
By JunkBondInvestor
Social•Feb 16, 2026
AI Disruption Drives Widening Credit Spreads Ahead of Earnings
AI disruption is hitting IG credit spreads, not just stock prices. Concentrix: BBB-rated, 455,000 call center employees. Paid 130bps concession to refinance. Stock down 24% last week. Spreads doubled in February. Credit markets pricing obsolescence before it shows up in earnings.
By JunkBondInvestor
Social•Feb 15, 2026
TIC Data Misses China’s Treasury Holdings Abroad
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 15, 2026
U.S. Economy Near Soft Landing Amid Multiple Risks
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
By Nick Timiraos
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Buffett’s Japanese Bond Move: Short Yen, Long Equities
The best macro trade of the past 5 years was Warren buffet’s Japanese bond issuance imo. Got him short the currency, short rates all while he was long the equities (trading houses).
By Citrini7 (pseudonymous)
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Markets Price 2.5 Fed Cuts as Curve Flattens
After jobs and CPI, mkt has ~2.5 Fed rate cuts discounted this year. 2-10 yr curve flattened back-to-back weeks for first time since Oct. 10 yr yield 3-month low. Be prepared for next week. See...
By Marc Chandler
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Yield Drop Signals Benign CPI, Boosts Gold Prices
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
BDC Quarterly Letters: Refusing Write‑Downs, Defying Pressure
Every BDC quarterly letter should just say “we are choosing not to mark this down and you can’t make us.”
By JunkBondInvestor
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Market Rally Likely False Amid Risk‑off Sentiment
I believe this is a false rally. Look at Utilities. That's defensive positioning. Same with long duration Treasuries. We remain in a risk-off condition for now.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Slowdown Fuels Falling Yields, Bullish Duration, Utilities, Gold
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
By Keith McCullough
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
By Greg Ip
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 13, 2026
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
By Luke Kawa
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Most Private Credit PIK Is Bad Yet Labeled Performing
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
By JunkBondInvestor
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Tight Credit Spreads, Fast‑Food Struggles, Tariff Burden Revealed
🆓 Thursday links: tight credit spreads, fast food woes, and who is paying the cost of tariffs. https://t.co/NOuKmm78S8 image: https://t.co/Lhs7cz5vWL https://t.co/nj3y6g7t8i
By Tadas Viskanta
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Steepening Yield Curve Could Shift QE Benefits to Main Street
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
By Jurrien Timmer
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Fed Treasury to Coordinate
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
By Jurrien Timmer
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Software Selloff Hits BDCs, Creditors May Be at Risk
“Business Development Companies” have been hammered in the recent software selloff. Alphaville dug into the data of some of the biggest ones to find out if software creditors are in trouble. https://t.co/ybVLHwLoCi https://t.co/AMQPhflF5J
By Robin Wigglesworth
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Google’s 100‑Year AI Bond: Ambitious or Foolhardy?
Google issuing a 100-year bond to fund AI capex. Remember JC Penney’s 100-year bond? Issued in 1997. Bankrupt in 2020. At least they got their basis back in coupons.
By JunkBondInvestor
Social•Feb 10, 2026
TLT's 15-Year Low ATR Signals Potential Breakout
$TLT : The Average True Range (orange) is now the lowest in over 15 years. Something has to give. Might the plummeting @truflation readings be a clue to which direction a breakout might occur? https://t.co/0pEENxYpXs
By Michael Lebowitz
Social•Feb 10, 2026
IG Spreads Widen Despite Equity Rally, Hinting Supply Worries
IG credit spreads wider +4bps from late-Jan yet HY wider by only +2bps. Last two days have seen +2.5% equity upside that statistically should mean IG spreads -2bps. May be nothing, may be worries about supply. A "balanced" IG...
By Guy LeBas
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Weak Data Fuels Bonds, 15% Growth Now Unrealistic
Soft retail sales, ECI flat for quarter and ADP jobs figures on the low end of expectations. Good data for the bond market, but that 15% GDP growth rate looks out of reach.
By Kathy Jones
Social•Feb 10, 2026
BP Finally Admits Debt Exceeds $50 Billion, Not $22 Billion
Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 10, 2026
U.S. Large Caps Lead Inflows; High‑Yield Bonds Lose Ground
U.S. large caps dominated inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals ... high yield bonds saw most outflows, but broader fixed income universe was still positive @DataArbor https://t.co/l0soXmQF4S
By Liz Ann Sonders
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Record Wave of Large Bankruptcies Hits Weekly
How is this a healthy development? At least SIX big companies (liabilities >=$50M) have filed for bankruptcy EVERY WEEK during 3-wk period that began Jan 10, a level matched a handful of times since the turn of the century…last week alone...
By Daniëlle DiMartino Booth
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Alphabet's Sterling Bond Hits Record £4.5bn Demand
#Alphabet sterling bond raises a record £4.5 bn, with £24 bn in bids. They may start borrowing on behalf of Bessent if it continues like this $GOOG
By Ashraf Laidi
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Dollar Steadies, Yen Rebounds; US 10‑yr Dips Below
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
By Marc Chandler
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Equities Edge up as Dollar Slips, Data Awaits
Tuesday: Equity futures slightly higher, dollar weaker and treasury yields nearly unchanged. Retail sales, Employment Cost Index and Import prices out today.
By Kathy Jones
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Tether Would Rank 17th in US Treasury Holdings
Who is the world's largest holder of US Treasuries? 🥇 Japan 🥈 United Kingdom 🥉 China But here's the wildest part - if Tether were a country, it would be the 17th largest holder of US Treasuries https://t.co/JoaE6JzFI9
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Earn 12‑18% Risk‑Free with Nigerian Treasury Bonds
TREASURY BILLS & GOVERNMENT BONDS Low-risk, government-backed securities. In Nigeria, buy FGN Savings Bonds or Treasury Bills through the CBN portal or apps like Chaka, Bamboo, or Cowrywise (minimum ₦10,000). Returns typically 12-18% annually. Other African countries offer similar products through their...
By The Prophetic Investor
Social•Feb 10, 2026
Macron Urges EU to Adopt Eurobonds Now
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
By Frederik Ducrozet
Social•Feb 9, 2026
Alphabet Launches 100‑year GBP Bond, Eyes Currency Debasement
#Alphabet to issue 100-year GBPSterling bond after having issued 50-year $17.5 bn USD bond in November. Also plns to issue CHF bond. They're betting further currency debasement #forex
By Ashraf Laidi