Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
While the combination of tariffs and spending cuts in 2025 proved net disinflationary (benefiting USD bond markets), the current dramatic neo-con shift under the Trump administration is the exact opposite - inflationary and negative for bonds
Fixed income: The YTM matters greatly.. 89% r-squared in terms of determining your 5-year return JPMAM https://t.co/b6f4gSRgeA
History says spreads peak 5-7 months after recessions start. Not before. By the time the NBER calls it, the move is done. $JOJO uses leading signals, not lagging labels. https://t.co/aEqM5MShko
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
March 2, 2025. The market opens to a sea of red following news of a U.S. attack on the Iranian regime. Treasuries bleed in anticipation of inflationary supply shocks. Trend-following strategies are in disarray. What's up with carry? by @jordonezjr https://t.co/oeugyTwcEN https://t.co/2Oq7Njel14
I'm not supposed to give investment advice, but compliance has never said I can't suggest overweighting US Treasuries :) Tinderbox Seeking a Spark: US Treasuries vs. Gold A basic factor may be all that's needed to spur some reversion from the...
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
U.S. net interest payments on the federal debt (in billions of dollars) by fiscal year: 2020: $345 2021: $352 2022: $475 2023: $659 2024: $882 2025: $970 2026: $1,000B (projected to exceed $1 trillion) Got hard assets?
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide as oil shocks reshape inflation expectations. Global spreads reveal where markets see the biggest shifts ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/ntInn7MIg4
If the PPT wants/needs to manipulate the US Equity Futures, that's fine - we know how that ends (gravity always wins) The real problem is Bond Market Vol and there's no change to that TRENDING Breakout Pretty much every position, everywhere,...
Traders added to wagers that UK interest rates will rise this year https://t.co/MMX4qogHde via @highisland @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/2awWhutl3G
Caixin: "For the first quarter of 2026, dim sum issuance totaled nearly 400 billion yuan, up 14% from a year earlier." https://t.co/yksX2koWPr
Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the...
You let the government borrow from you with hope you pop off before you collect what you paid into the system.
amazing writeup on japan's public sector balance sheet, net debt, and massive sovereign carry trade. https://t.co/JTMMXBfCKu
The Economist: "As private-credit funds’ woes intensify, they will raise the cost of borrowing for firms across the economy, at a time when the Iran war is weighing on companies’ margins. The cost of debt in public markets has already...
$SPX is tracking intraday peaks and troughs in Treasury yields very closely as macro correlations remain elevated #fairleadstrategies https://t.co/9bi1kaFWxh
also interesting that sovereign spreads have widened—you’ve seen terms of trade differentiation in FX but sov debt has been slower to price differing country-by-country macro fundamentals
Another big development last week was that the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.48%. The chart below shows that the yield has continued to coil in a large triangle, and could be on the verge of a break-out. Meanwhile,...
It prevents fed funds cuts, props up Wall Street, props up inflation, all because the Repo Gang of Four won't deal with uneven distribution of reserves.
Thoughts? Certainly could happen but 10 yr could also be close to 5% if this war still rages
Gilts are to the sitting UK government what Spoos is to Trump; the game will continue until either market says no more.
Please prepare yourself for months of shameless self-promotion, mute me on socials, feel free to avoid me in public etc, because my next book — A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World — ...
Wow, borrowing costs on Oracle data center projects have widened to as high as S+450 $ORCL is IG. The data centers being built for Oracle are pricing like high yield.
The energy shock is now a financial shock—and it’s hitting American homebuyers directly War → higher Treasury yields → higher mortgage rates → worse housing affordability
US Stocks Only Fans don't get it, but The Bond Market does It's called Global #Quad3 Stagflation with a breakout in Bond Yields https://t.co/LfjSg2suV3
Bailey says traders are getting ahead of themselves on BOE rate hike bets https://t.co/eeKELZndt9 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/kDqxSw5RoE
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
$HYG Daily. Biggest early divergence to the rally in risk is high yield/junk and some private credit names in the red. Here, high yield corporate bonds gapping down. Trump speech tonight on tap https://t.co/9x0hkcFmtd
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
Gilts and European bonds surge as oil drops on Iran war optimism https://t.co/FkSGPhfdFv via @alicegledhill1 @highisland https://t.co/pKqalXyzEV
1/4 Yicai: "China’s local debt cleanup is moving faster, with the central government’s debt swap program simultaneously lowering borrowing costs and shrinking the implicit debt pile." https://t.co/Ru3dUFDjL5
"Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war" https://t.co/B4oQiLaXmS "Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive...
Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up...
$39T national debt. 10Y yield: 4.44%. Annual interest: ~$1.1T. That exceeds the entire defense budget. The US is paying more to service its past than to defend its future. There is no clean exit from a fiscal spiral at this scale. --- https://t.co/maHJkCjSBw
Mativ priced at 95 cents. Only 2 US lev loans have priced at deeper discounts this year.
The FT has a good article on the recent fall in the Treasuries held by the New York Fed's custodial account 1/ https://t.co/q3XrJ1bvlZ
It's quarter-end with a smallish duration extension later today. More importantly a reminder that April is the cruelest month for USTs as tax payment season liquidity squeeze generally pressures financial assets https://t.co/k7egjG0Wku
I am also beginning to leg into long bond shorts against a portion of this position to play for a steepener.
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
With equities down and gold in the gutter (zero corr can be a nasty surprise), investors are PILING into treasury ETFs, which took in about $30b in March, over double recent monthly avg, namely ultra short like $SGOV and $BIL...
In March: - US dollar set for best month since 2024, bond yields poised for largest monthly rise since 2024 - S&P poised for biggest monthly drop since 2022 -Brent crude set for its biggest ever monthly gain - Average US gas prices are...
not a big fan of doing percentage shares of the outstanding when the outstanding is way up -- here is a chart of coupon supply as a stock normalized v GDP 1/2 https://t.co/yTbJuALpQ8
Just keep credit spreads from blowing out for a few more weeks is all I ask.
YTD... stocks $SPY -7.1% Bonds $AGG -0.2% Not a perfect zig-zag, but certainly some alpha in $AGG https://t.co/IWkDvMCo0x
Where’s the next CRE pain point as I warned last year? @TreppWire CMBS Delinquency Rate increased 41 bps to 7.55% in March, reversing Feb’s decline. Lodging posted largest increase, jumping 137 bps to 7.31%, the first time it’s been >7% since...
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
