Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...
MORE LIKE NOMENTUM Goldman Sachs’ high beta momentum long basket down >7% today, poised for its 4th worst session in the past year https://t.co/s1Xac2PsMI
The stock market is screaming fear. VIX at 31. The bond market? Shrugging. High-yield credit spreads are at 317 basis points — BELOW the 20-year average. One of these markets is wrong. If spreads stay below 400, we bounce. If they blow through 500, brace...
You wouldn't drive with your eyes closed. Why invest in credit without watching the signals? $JOJO keeps its eyes on utilities, spreads, and macro risk. Always. https://t.co/Ap3Tk7ZcGZ
When spreads offer no compensation for risk, you're not being paid to hold credit. Period. $JOJO shifts to long-duration Treasuries when the signal confirms it. https://t.co/GLMuxK8o97
$TLT can rally in a recession and still be a bad trade if inflation expectations won’t chill. Duration isn’t a safe haven when the bond market stops believing. https://t.co/Rb9uYrLUHk
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
Cuts winning out vs hikes now. Market net pricing 5 bps of cuts this year https://t.co/jSHybRo8Ni
Junk credit spreads are certainly widening, but if this is going to become a meaningful move, we are not even out of the first inning. https://t.co/KwASCn8uAh
Credit markets are shaped by dislocations, liquidity, and risk. Kieran Goodwin of Saba Capital speaks to three decades in credit, risks in private credit, and positioning for stress. https://t.co/oiutNgtCW9 With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu
From Waterloo to the Iran conflict, the pattern hasn't changed. When governments go to war, bondholders pay. New research from Northwestern, Stanford, Columbia and UT Austin: 300 years of data, 14% average real losses in the first four years of war....
Phase 2 - the return of pre-Covid risk off behavior as volatility explodes and credit spreads finally widen.
Sobering new read: Liability management maneuvers (LME) often fail to protect L-T value. Per @FitchRatings firms that undertook LMEs btw 2016 & H1 2025 before filing bankruptcy experienced recoveries for first-lien debt of ~39% vs recoveries of ~68% for firms w/o...
My take in @asiatimesonline on US debt: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”...
Yes, indeed. 10-year yields are higher. Oil is materially higher. On the deficits side: I’m old enough to remember DOGE… https://t.co/9uWJASUd8q https://t.co/K8XMoJFshw
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
"bonds—often a place of safety in times of market turmoil—have offered no relief, hit by worries that resurgent inflation will keep interest rates higher than expected and undermine the value of their fixed payouts." https://t.co/acyJLqVIXP https://t.co/7yOQbeNrn2
Powell out in May. Warsh in. Market is pricing hikes. New chair may cut. The wildcard nobody's discussing: what if the Fed pivots just as inflation re-accelerates? One transition. Two completely different outcomes. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/zmsbBtchWk
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Eurozone borrowing costs soar on fears of fiscal hit from Iran shock via @FT https://t.co/QuVa5RF5wm
International Monetary Fund: Global public debt has risen to a record level - nearly 100% of global GDP. https://t.co/H6FXJN78RZ
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
The market was pricing a 100% chance of rate cuts in February. That number is now 16%. The Fed put is dead.
Long duration Treasuries performance now roughly matches the performance of the S&P 500 from July of last year. Think about that - duration is performing like stocks. That's a cycle shift starting.
The “rates don’t matter” crowd always disappears when duration starts moving. Watch $TLT. Watch $HYG. Equities can pretend yields are irrelevant… …right up until refinancing becomes a math problem. https://t.co/7BiLk7apui
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm
6.64% has always been my line in sand for rates when they tick higher from here demand slows when they go lower toward 6% things improve. Hug a mortgage spread today https://t.co/DeRZntaHsC
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
Not often you see STIRs trying to price hikes and cuts at the same time, but that is the current level of uncertainty. What will dominate in the next few months, inflation or a growth slowdown? Get...
And finally looking at the broad curve, belly (5s) has been under pressure past few weeks mostly driven by the flattening on the back side. Not a fan of 5s generally but it has cheapened a bunch and is...
We need to embargo Iranian oil to end this war. Biggest risk from that isn't catastrophically higher oil prices, but vulnerabilities in US financial markets due to the basis trade in the Treasury market and private credit. Those are our...
5y SOFR swap spreads have been heavy lately and just narrowed below -35 bps. Tactically good level IMO esp with the possibility of reg relief soon https://t.co/fjvHI7HVCz
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
The UST 2s5s steepener has been my 'white whale' trade the past year, facing constant pressure from shifting macro drivers. It was first flattened by the AI disruption trade, then crushed by the surge in front-end yields following the outbreak...
Global Bond Yields continue to ramp higher alongside #Quad3 INFLATION Japan's 10yr ramped +11bps (thats a lot in a day) today joining the breakout in European and US Yields
Our Breakout Signal in Bond Market Volatility has turned out to be one of the fastest ROC ramps in the history of me modeling it https://t.co/NsHzTPL9fS
Supply Chain risk is financial risk. “The $30tn US Treasury market is showing growing signs of strain, as turmoil in the Middle East drives swings in bonds that underpin the financial system. The ease of trading in the world’s biggest...
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC he expects "none and done" from the Fed this year—no rate hikes ahead. https://t.co/Ml4LwB5aky
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
