High‑yield PIMCO Fund Trades at Premium—Worth It?
PIMCO's best bond manager runs a fund yielding 11.6%. It's never cut its distribution. It raised it once. It terminates in 2033 — meaning the discount can't stay wide forever. Right now it trades at a 3% premium. Is that still worth paying? https://t.co/lKK7LPqnns
US Inflation Stays High, No Fed Cut Yet
Bond Market Message = #HFL = Higher For Longer on US Inflation with no Fed Rate Cut bailout (yet)
Japan 10‑Year Yield Peaks 2.49% Amid Middle East Tensions
JUST IN: Japan's 10-year bond yield surges to 2.49%, its highest since 1997, amid Middle East tensions and the US Hormuz blockade driving inflation fears.
US Interest Costs Hit 18¢ per Dollar, Set to Rise
JUST IN: In Fiscal Year 2025, the US allocated 18 cents per revenue dollar to interest payments, the highest since the 1990s and triple what it was in 2015, with CBO projecting it to reach 25 cents by 2035.
Active $JOJO Strategy Beats Passive Bond Risk
Passive bond investing means riding credit risk all the way down. No exit strategy. No rotation. Just duration and hope. $JOJO is the opposite of that. https://t.co/rbZotpZIp8
TLT Set to Outperform USO as Oil Rises
TLT Flushed vs. USO -- Dip to Buy, or Different? The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has dropped to a 10-year low vs. the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). Will the TLT/USO total return spread be higher or...
Traders Bet Fed Will Keep Rates Steady Through 2026
JUST IN: Traders are sticking with their wagers that the Fed will hold rates steady through all of 2026.
Expect a Chaotic Market: Spikes, Shortages, and Volatile Bonds
Markets are going to be funky. SoH closure into an oil price spike and physical shortage. COVID showed us anything is on the table and that governments never let a good crisis go to waste. With sovereign bond yields about...
Bond P/E Triangle Signals Potential 4.5% Yield Spike
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
TLT Faces Mid‑Range Resistance, Signal to Sell
Swing chart of TLT shows resistance in middle of prior range, currently on a sell. https://t.co/mtjHPXt3sa
Bonds Unfazed: Inflation Still Poor, Outlook Deteriorates
I think bonds are saying they don't really care that this inflation print was 'better than expectations' because 1) it's still not good and 2) the next few months are going to be even worse.
Yield Pullback Signals Chance to Trim Bonds
5/10-year yields just pulled back in uptrends... opportunity to reduce your (lagging) bond exposure into strength...
Global Rates Climb After Latest Trump Shock
Global rate path veers higher in wake of another Trump shock https://t.co/xtMlttlWvY with @CraigStirling https://t.co/mrRZfr13lH
US Debt Costs Remain High, Slightly Less Ugly
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
Energy Shock Drives Rapid Borrowing Cost Surge in Africa, Asia
This is how Hormuz turns into a debt crisis Borrowing costs are spiking across the developing world—fastest where resilience is weakest. Borrowing costs are up 0.64% in Africa and 0.7% in Asia Energy shock → higher yields → tighter liquidity. https://t.co/Pbx05iepX6 #DebtCrisis #OilMarkets...
Weak Chinese Economy Fuels Outward Credit Hunt
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
Fed Faces Record $245 Billion Cumulative Loss
⚠️The Fed's losses are MASSIVE: The Fed's cumulative losses sit at near a RECORD $245 billion. This represents the gap between what the Fed pays commercial banks in interest on their reserves and what it earns on its bond holdings. 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-federal-reserve-s-cumulative-losses-are-massive
Paramount‑Skydance Restructures Debt, Adding $31B to WBD
Pretty sure we need to add $31 billion or so of WBD debt to this number. Paramount Skydance Restructures Debt Financing for Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/KdxmGFAyON via @variety
Low‑rate 2020‑21 Loans Force SME Refinancing Crunch
A lot of lending to small/midsize companies is for a term of 5 to 7 years. A great deal of debt issued 3/2020 to 9/2021 is therefore coming due these days. UST interest rates were near zero in that issuance...
Broaden View: Compare Foreign Holdings Across All Sovereigns
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV
Oil Shock Inflation Temporary, Fed Should Keep Cutting Rates
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
Fed's 2% Target Deemed Myth; No Near-Term Hikes
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
Core CPI Must Rescue Markets Amid 0.9% Crude Spike
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
Israel-Lebanon Talks Boost Treasury Gains, Optimism Rises
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
10‑Year Yield Above 4.4% Proves Unmanageable
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
Rising Bond Supply Threatens Tight Spreads, Rotate Funds
Bond issuance is surging. More supply into already tight spreads. That math doesn't work forever. When the dam breaks, you want a fund that rotates. $JOJO. https://t.co/rq34u6KTHX
UK Bond Volatility Undermines Liquidity and Mortgage Availability
Once again, the UK financial markets are dominated by the “high beta” character of government bonds. (Please see Bloomberg data below.) This isn't just about rate volatility in the national benchmark; it’s also about how that volatility undermines market liquidity, complicates...
Eight Trillion Dollars of T‑Bills Rollover Every Year
That’s the thing about treasury bills man, there’s $8t that rolls over every year And the world keeps spinning every year despite it!
Treasury Yields Surge Above 4.9% Amid CPI, Auction Pressure
Between tomorrow's CPI and today’s 30-year auction, Treasuries are feeling the heat. That ceasefire euphoria has already faded - 30s are back north of 4.90%
Gold’s Dip Tied to Rising Yields, Not Inflation Fears
A guest on @business questioned this morning why anyone would buy gold when you can buy inflation protected securities yielding 2.7%. Excellent question. A few answers: First, maybe I misheard him, but TIPS yields are currently just a tad under 2%...
Treasury Bill Rollovers & Debt Swaps Overhyped on FinTwit
Two topics that get 100x more airtime than they deserve on fintwit: 1) Trillions in Tbills constantly maturing and getting bought again by the same balance sheets that hold them now. 2) The Treasury issuing some on-the-run debt to buy back some...
Stocks and Bonds Both Riding Multi-Year Uptrend
oil up, or oil down, risk on, or risk off... one thing remains clear... stocks $SPX vs. bonds $TLT are in a multi-year uptrend... https://t.co/7V1yxCbBNO
Euro's Debt Charade Leaves Spain, Italy, France Vulnerable
The Euro got hijacked by high-debt countries to foster the illusion they're solvent. But yield caps don't confer fiscal space, which is why - when a shock like Ukraine hits - Spain (ES), Italy (IT) and France (FR) can't help....
Refinancing $8 Trillion Will Spike U.S. Interest Costs
Hey @grok, what happens to interest payments when the U.S. government has to refinance $8 trillion of debt next year at higher interest rates?
Private Markets Face $330B Debt Maturity Crunch by 2028
"A wall of debt maturities is looming for the private markets industry, with more than $330 billion of high yield, leveraged loan and business development company-linked software and technology debt coming due for repayment through 2028." https://t.co/tbaFKL3oym
NZ 2-Year Yield Stays Steady Amid RBNZ Hawkish Shift
It is remarkable that the NZ 2-year yield saw little adjustment with the RBNZ's hawkish shift. The NZ-US 2-year spread was essentially unchanged despite the $NZUSD rally. Remarkable
Bonds Stay Steady While Markets Surge
“I think the most interesting thing about today is that bonds haven’t reacted as strongly as the rest of the market,” said Eric Wallerstein, chief macro strategist at Clocktower Group @MarketWatch https://t.co/Eyc4GpGRzX
2‑Year Yield Near Historic Tightness at +0.14%
The 2yr yield is currently just 14bps above the Fed Funds Rate That's historically tight - it has averaged +0.3ppts since 1976 @sonusvarghese https://t.co/lbr63DqekD
AA DIP Tranche Hits QofE, Global Refi Begins
The year is June 2027. First Brands’ new money ultra-priority DIP Tranche AA just traded down to 50 cents. Great news though - the QofE just hit. Finally, the global refi can commence.
Yield Curve Flip Signals Growth Risks Amid Fed Tightness
10Y–2Y yield curve keeps grinding lower, but the type of flattening has shifted from “bear” (short rates up) to “bull” (long rates getting bid). That suggests the bond market is growing more cautious about US economic growth, while the Fed...
HYG Nears 200‑Day Average, Fed Minutes Could Spark Late‑Cycle Concerns
$HYG Daily. High Yield Corporate Bond ETF gapping up to 200-day moving average. With Fed Minutes today, then major macro rest of week, am watching to see late-cycle concerns reappear https://t.co/s1J9PRXCS5
Rising Yields, Stable Inflation Expectations Pressure Gold
The market priced as a short-term shock, not structural change: bond yields rose, but long-term inflation expectations did not -> real yields moved rose, a headwind to price of gold.
Oil Slump Pushes Yields Lower, India Growth Forecast Cut
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ Brazil's 10-year bond yield tumbled toward 13.7% as crude oil prices plunged, improving the inflation outlook. ⦿ US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. ⦿ US 10-year...
Bond Yield Dip Could Trim 30‑Year Mortgages Near 6.4%
Nice move lower today for bond yields. Should result in 30-year fixed mortgage rates back around ~6.375% or lower. But they remain about 0.375% above late February lows and the ceasefire appears tenuous. Actually surprised things haven't already turned higher again...
Foreign Investors Flee US Treasuries for Low‑Yield Chinese Bonds
Forget US Treasuries, Chinese bonds are the new safe-haven trade Since the start of the war, foreigners have: - Dumped $82B of Treasuries - Piled into panda bonds The math makes sense: - US 10-year yield: 4.4% - China 10-year yield: 1.8% In the midst of the...
Bond Market and Mortgage Rates Enjoy Rare Rally
A good day for the #bond market and #mortgagerares for a change. #economics #housing #realestate
Veteran ERZ
Followed by everyone, and it does seem like everyone in EZ rate space, who has been long ERZ6 since 97 and change.
UST Rally Surges Confidently Amid Fragile Truce
It's a fragile truce so I am surprised how confident the UST rally has been overnight. I guess taking cues from Trump who seems to have his own favored take on developments
Dimes Surge as 10‑yr Yields Dip Below 4.25%
Tplex: Dimes also fired up this morning +23/32nd's 10 Yr Notes below 4.25% (4.238% -10.5 bp's)
Increase Short US Treasury Bet Ahead of CPI
Good day to gross up and broaden our new short position in US Treasuries (ahead of CPI) $TLT