Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Social Media and Updates
Bonds Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
The yields on bonds of pretty much all EU member states are moving closer to Germany’s. This is the right time for common euro debt, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/ZN3JVBYKDo via @opinion https://t.co/fSn1i0CbMd
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
4.17% on the 10yr... highest since Feb 12... remember it gapped down to 3.93% to start the week (Sunday night) https://t.co/fDNCy0A6lE
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
🚨Investors are hedging against a market crash at a record pace: Combined put open interest in credit ETFs, $HYG, $LQD, $JNK, and $BKLN, plus call open interest in the Treasury ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 15.9 million contracts. This has...
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Treasury (TLT) buyer 5000 December $89 straddles expecting bond volatility, tends to be bad for markets, good for TW MKTX
Well well well... BlackRock marked a private credit loan at 100 cents on the dollar in Q3. By Q4, it was a big fat ZERO. Not 80. Not 50. ZERO. In 3 months. This is the second time $TCPC has done this recently....
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
"I need to park $50k of cash for 12 months. What are my options?" > $VUSXX (Vanguard Treasury MM Fund) or any Treasury equivalent. State/local tax exempt, 3.63% yield > HYSA (FDIC insured, ~3%) Don’t invest it, unless 12 months turns into 12...
ADP with a slight beat along with small negative revision to previous month. Nothingburger. USTs yawn
LIVE Shot of our Inflation Nowcast Accelerating into #Quad3 in Bond Market Volatility terms https://t.co/cTSAqYA6P7
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
Paramount Skydance Debt Downgraded to Junk Status by Fitch Ratings Following Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/bBiUN3grT5 via @variety
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
Allocators are funding a logical switch trade: Redeeming BCRED at NAV to buy $BXSL at an -11% discount to NAV. Look for this dynamic to occur between every other private credit fund with both a non-traded and listed BDC.
Bond Volatility winners $TW $MKTX also always a good market hedge / indicator of trouble coming
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
Just in: S&P Global Ratings placed all its ratings on global diversified media company PSKY, including the 'BB+' issuer credit rating and our issue-level ratings on its debt, on CreditWatch with negative implications
Oil jumping to 8-9% gains this afternoon.. gasoline futures up 12 cents. US stocks ~unch with the 10yr 3bps off the HoD.. now near 4.04% https://t.co/XkTx1P5k8G
BACK TO A 6-HANDLE The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.12% Same day last year: 6.74% ------------------ 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.06% Spread today: 206 bps
$TNX Monthly. Another bounce off 4% (40 on this chart) for Rates on 10-Year Note. Long-term continues multi-year narrowing triangle. https://t.co/gUtiLgqcs9
10-Year US Treasury Yield Flipflops, Spikes by 14 Basis Points to 4.07%, after Plunging to 3.93%, amid Massive Volatility. It undid more than the entire haven trade that had started on Thursday and blew through the hot PPI inflation on Friday https://t.co/mjFPIIuVi8...
'For now, though, this serves as another warning sign to US authorities that their haven status is in peril'. I don't think this is any more right now than it was a year ago in other circumstances, or before that....
Most telling thing about this episode so far is complete inability of duration to hold anything resembling a bid.
Non-stop selling of the belly since futures opened last night with 5s easing up on the curve after a historic run. https://t.co/7GuCuTfHeW
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have been trading in a sideways range for years... #MACDhist ticking down for 4 weeks in a row... https://t.co/LTKir2ZNyJ
The LBO debt market is freaking out. Here comes a $20B test of nerves https://t.co/MiXTnEB2pK
Not a terribly surprising open. Crude up 8%. SPooz off 1% and USTs up solidly bid but selling into best levels.
Aussie 10s have on average traded 67bps cheap to UST 10s over the past few weeks. Currently trading 4.58 which suggest UST 10s should open around 3.91, 3 bps richer (that's like 6-7 ticks)
Interest from HYSA is taxed at federal AND state/local level. But interest from T-Bills is only taxed at the federal level, saving you anywhere from 0-13% in state/local taxes. T-bills also generally have better yields. Small adjustments can make a big difference over...
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
