Tuesday: Gas Prices up 50% in Europe

The episode opens with a rapid 50% surge in European gas prices after Qatar shut the Ras Laffin LNG export hub, a facility that supplies roughly one‑fifth of global LNG cargoes. Oil markets reacted more modestly, climbing about 6% with Brent trading near $77.67 per barrel. Analysts noted the price spike reflected temporary supply anxieties rather than a structural shortage, while equity indices and bond yields showed mixed responses, underscoring market uncertainty around the Iran‑related conflict.

ANZ economists highlighted divergent currency impacts: commodity‑exporting nations such as Brazil, South Africa, and Australia see their terms of trade improve, keeping their currencies relatively strong. In contrast, import‑dependent economies—Eurozone, UK, Japan—face pressure as higher energy costs erode purchasing power. Policy buffers are emerging, with Korea reversing fuel‑tax cuts and Thailand’s oil fund moving into surplus, providing fiscal room to cushion future price shocks. The broader Asian region, however, remains vulnerable to prolonged disruptions that could tighten global oil supplies.

In the deep‑dive interview, Chief Economist Sanjay Mathur argued that despite the Iran shock, Asian growth outlook stays positive. He cited higher policy buffers, a less energy‑intensive industrial base, and a tech‑driven export super‑cycle as key stabilisers. While oil’s share of consumer price baskets is limited compared with food, any sustained price rise could still affect current‑account deficits in countries like India and Korea. Overall, ANZ maintains confidence in regional GDP growth, expecting the tech sector’s secular demand to offset geopolitical volatility.