Jet Fuel Markets: Low Supply Signals Urgent Action
1 minute and 26 seconds of me explaining jet fuel markets while fighting the urge to quote Top Gun: "Cougar, we gotta land this thing. We are running way low on gas"
Russia's Oil Output Falls, Exports Rise Amid War
Russia's oil production in April was the lowest since 2020. Despite that, their exports have risen as Ukrainian attacks on refineries have cut domestic use and led to higher shipments while the US temporarily waived sanctions. Due to the higher...
Hormuz Crossings Offer Minor Relief, Not Production Recovery
It's important to mentally separate eastbound (i.e., exiting) Hormuz ship crossings from the restart of shut-in Middle Eastern production. There's ~175 million barrels of petroleum on tankers floating, tapped in the Middle East Gulf (MEG). That's effectively a quasi-strategic stock at this...
Jefferies Predicts Copper Soaring Above $8 per Pound
Wall Street’s leading metals & mining analyst, Chris Lefemina at @Jefferies, just made this bullish comment on copper: “We had been accused of being too bullish on copper in recent years, but our price deck now appears to be overly conservative,...
Oil‑XLE/XLK Gap Signals Potential Market Re‑Alignment
There's a massive divergence between the price of oil and the XLE/XLK ratio right now. Historically these track closely but a big gap has opened up. This gap is likely to close if the supply shock keeps oil elevated longer than...
IEA Confirms Reuters Forecast: Russia’s Oil Production Slumps
April 2 - Reuters scoop that Russian oil output cuts are imminent https://t.co/5XWsLO71R7 May 13 - IEA says Russia's oil output down 460,000 bpd y/y in April.
EIA Forecasts Massive 2026 Oil Draw, Prices to Ease
EIA is no longer pricing a short disruption It now expects an 8.5 mb/d global inventory draw in Q2 2026—one of the largest in modern history Prices ease later because demand destruction & slower growth begin overpowering the supply shock. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Brent...
U.S. Energy Stuck as Price Taker, Not Market Dominator
You guys got played @PartyMartyo_0 @LearnerKip The U.S. is largely an energy price taker with the wrong crude slate and weak LNG positioning We can move markets at the margin, not dominate them Stop treating journalists like @richimedhurst like energy experts #Oil #LNG...
Gold Range Tightens, Breakout Likely Soon
Quick video update on the #Gold levels from here Gold Range Tightens: Breakout Incoming? https://t.co/IgMSz0WwUH On YouTube: https://t.co/2VVa53WM6t
Electricity‑gas Price Gap Blocks Europe’s Home Electrification
Electricity-to-gas price ratio: biggest barrier to electrifying European homes. Heat pumps deliver ~3 units of heat per unit of electricity. The maths works in Sweden but not everywhere. Much of gap is policy. More analysis in my forthcoming newsletter https://t.co/In5lBaF2ox https://t.co/lvOin2nN2m
Tax Cuts on Tight Gas Supply Benefit Sellers, Not Buyers
Cutting gas taxes when oil supply is constrained is like subsidizing housing buyers when zoning blocks new supply: the price must rise. The benefit flows to sellers, not buyers. #Econ101. https://t.co/IYH25HWAZS
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes LNG Prices Abroad, US Stays Insulated
The closure (or near-closure) of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shock waves through the LNG market. Europe, which prices much of its gas at the TTF trading hub in the Netherlands, and Asia are getting hammered by the surge...
Jeff Currie’s Podcast Appears to Jinx Copper, yet Trend Climbs
Every time Jeff Currie is on the podcast, it seems like copper takes a little dip and people say he (or, I suppose, we) jinxed it. But then you zoom out a little bit and the chart just keeps going...
Fuel‑price Shock Persists as SPR Nears Historic Low
Headline inflation increased 3.3 -> 3.8% in April, although Core PCE was 2.6 -> 2.8%. Trump authorized a 53MM bbl release from the SPR yesterday and said that he’ll suspend the federal fuel tax. But assuming that inflation is driven principally...
Cautious Buyers Offset Global Oil Supply Shock
Astounding🤷♂️ 👉”US-led exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been 💥shielding the world from the supply shock💥 👉“The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels a day, the 6.8mn net contraction of seaborne export supply...
Spaghetti Bolognese Leads Growth, Tomatoes Surge 15%
Spaghetti bolognese is outperforming Pasta up 1.3% Uncooked ground beef up 2.7% Tomatoes up 15.1%
Oil Funds Build Shorts Betting Hormuz Reopening Cuts Prices
Oil funds boost short positions anticipating re-opening of Strait Investors made few significant changes to their aggregate position across crude oil and refined fuels for the third week running as the ceasefire between the United States and Iran remained in place...
US Oil Boom Caps World Prices, Hikes US Gasoline
The emergence of the US as a major oil producer - and exporter - is an equilibrating force in the global shortfall. Good news is that this helps cap global oil prices. Bad news is there's less oil for domestic...
US Surplus Driven by Rising Refined Product Exports
The US imports crude (blue) and exports refined product (red), which is things like gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel. The sharp rise in the US' oil surplus is all about more refined product leaving the country, which helps mitigate...
Silver Futures Break $83.84, Bulls Anticipate Further Rise
The move above $83.84 (4/17 HOD and matching the 12/29/2025 $83.77 HOD) in July Silver Futures has the Silver Bulls fired up again looking for a spike or grind higher. For me, the verdict is still out........ https://t.co/IXv9NqTS6C
Gold, Silver Likely Enter Poor‑Performance Cycle After Rallies
Gold, Silver May Face a Typical Cycle: Years of Bad Performance Crude oil has been stuck in a range for about two decades and is approaching the upper end, which could be a guide for what to expect in gold and...
Gold Poised for 1980‑Level Peak by 2026
A Peak Like 1980? Gold Is Leaning That Way Gold futures started trading in 1975, peaked near $873 an ounce in 1Q80 and did not breach that high until 1Q08. I see peak parallels in 2026. Full report on the Bloomberg here:...
Silver's 2026 Peak May Sustain for Years
Silver's 2026 High Could Endure for Years In transition over the years to more industrial commodity from money and store of value, silver may be more elastic than ever, and the 1Q price surge could mark a peaking process. Full report on...
Oil Prices
What a great night of conversation w/the Midland Wildcat Committee The mood here is understandably more effusive than the rest of the country w/$WTI north of $100/barrel The Q: At what level of prices does enough demand get destroyed to temp the...
Elevra May Signal Start of New Lithium Upcycle
Is Elevra the first in this cycle? The last upcycle was marked by a hot period of three or four months where producers realised that the worst was over and they now needed to invest in supply. In a short...
Import Bans Would Push Gold Prices Higher
If gold imports are banned, prices would go up no? Supply lower and demand still high? Indian gold price always higher than in Hong Kong for example because demand is higher and due to import duties.
Indians Buy Gold to Hedge Inflation and Rupee Decline
Gold imports = gold purchases at lower price = higher asset value as gold has appreciated. Indians buy gold because it's a real asset and a good hedge against inflation or depreciation of rupee vs USD and vs gold.
Higher Energy Prices Naturally Balance Supply and Demand
But they are already doing that by pushing for demand destruction. By telling people to work from home, reduce mobility, refiners to not buy so much oil or spend foreign exchange, or refiners not able to pass on higher input...
Tariffs Hurt Consumers, Ranchers Block Trump’s Trade Gains
Worst of all worlds for Trump, tbh. Admit imports lower prices (and tariffs increase them), but don't get any actual market benefit bc of opposition from profiteering US ranchers & their GOP friends in Congress.
Food Prices Spike Again, Vegetable Oil Leads Surge
The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third straight month in April, hitting its highest level since Feb 2023. Vegetable oil prices led the surge, rising 5.9% MoM. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/Z5NCEspTDb
Copper Hits Record High on Data‑Center Demand, Mine Disruption
From the Wall Street Journal: "Copper prices notched a new record high Monday, rising on strong demand for data-center construction, supply disruptions at one of the world's largest mines and surging input costs." #economy #markets #inflation #copper @wsj
Lithium Prices Jump 24%, Signaling Commodity Supercycle
Lithium carbonate prices have SURGED over 24% in the past month, reaching their highest level since 2023. As I’ve said, "We're entering a commodity supercycle. I like lithium and vanadium.” STAY LONG or GET LONG. https://t.co/esoCtb8RoX
Copper Scarcity Drives 77% Price Surge Since 2023
It's been three years since this fireside with @ErikSchatzker at @BloombergLive’s @QatarEconForum in 2023. The message is even truer now than it was then: copper is fundamental to the global economy and when it comes to supply, there’s just not...
Trump to Slash Beef Tariffs to Curb Meat Prices
US President Donald Trump will sign an executive order to, in effect, lower tariffs on foreign beef imports as the White House struggles to reduce meat prices.
USDA to Release First Winter Wheat Estimates Amid Poor Ratings
40% of the nation's winter #wheat crop rates Poor to Very Poor this week. USDA releases its first production estimates based on actual field surveys tomorrow. #oatt https://t.co/zUENPEeYTN
Markets Rally as Iran Peace Hopes Fade
JUST IN: Oil, stocks, VIX, and yields rise as hopes for an Iran peace deal plunge.
India, EU Inventories, and China Refineries Drive Oil Market
The Oil Market’s Hidden Stories: India, EU Oil Inventories, and China’s Refineries Daily Energy Report https://t.co/nprzgQ2K3f
OPEC Output Drops to Record Low Amid Hormuz Disruption
JUST IN: OPEC oil output hits a new low in April due to Hormuz export disruption.
Cocoa Prices Surge 50% YTD Despite Recent Crash
Cocoa crashed, but it's up 50% from January... not like we ever saw a drop in chocolate prices https://t.co/2TNYkxdpnV
California Gas Prices Poised to Climb Past $6 per Gallon
Think $6 Gas Is Bad? It’s About to Get Even Worse in California https://t.co/9uG3o8qsPg “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” ― H.L. Mencken
Trump Admin Unveils Two Plans to Tackle Beef Prices
The Trump administration will announce two new strategies Monday to address record beef prices and support rebuilding the domestic cattle herd, according to a @DroversCTN report. https://t.co/wSml9OdPWz
Today's Gas Prices Feel Cheaper Than Past
At $4.52 per gallon, real-terms gasoline prices are no more expensive than most of our lives. We're not driving a 1979 Oldsmobile Cutlass. A 2025 Ford F-150 is not the same fuel economy as a 2008 F-150. And people earn...
U.S. Crude Futures Rise to $98.07, Up 2.8%
JUST IN: U.S. Crude Oil Futures settled at $98.07 per barrel, up $2.65 or 2.78 percent.
Saudi MAP Shipment Departs; Eight Phosphate Ships Await
Incase you are wondering how the global fertilizer crisis is shaping up - the 2nd Saudi cargo of MAP just left the Persian Gulf for Brazil since the end of Feb. There are 8 ships loaded w/phosphates waiting. https://t.co/MjbR9M1Cx7
Japan's SPR Draw Outpaces US at 1.5 MMbpd
Between the end of March and beginning of May, Japan drew down crude stocks—mostly its SPR—at a rate of ~1.5 million barrels per day. Japan's SPR releases started much more quickly than the US' and that 1.5 MMbpd *average* draw rate...
Trump Opens Beef Imports to Curb Soaring Prices
Imports (and tariff cuts) to the rescue, AGAIN: "Trump Clears Way for More Beef Imports, Aiming to Bring Down Record-High Prices" https://t.co/PrVADPxrF7 https://t.co/WqLArEHL6p
Record Diesel Prices Threaten Truckers, SMEs, and Consumers
If diesel hits an all time record? What will it do to trucking? Especially owner operators? And to supply chains? Especially SMEs? And consumers?
Goldman Sachs Lifts 2026 Nickel Forecast on Supply Squeeze
May 11 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 average nickel price forecast to $18,500 per metric ton from $17,200 on Monday, citing tighter Indonesian supply due to reduced ore quota allocations and sulfur shortages.
Corn Dominates Export Inspections, Far Ahead of Others
Export inspections for the week ending May 7 (mln bu): #corn 66.6, grain sorghum 3.1, #soybeans 24.1, #wheat 18.8 #oatt
Institutions Bet $22M on Copper Supercycle by 2026
Big money just spoke loud and clear on the LME. A monster Sept ’26 15,500–17,000 call spread traded in 5,500 lots for roughly $22 million in premium. That’s not retail noise, that’s institutional conviction betting copper is heading significantly higher by late...