China's Fertilizer Exports Surge in April Despite Controls
China's fertilizer exports jumped in April which is not what you'd have expected given exports controls were imposed in ~late March. That's good news for farmers though
Kharg Island Sees Longest Tanker‑free Stretch Since War’s Start
Kharg Island update: @CopernicusEU satellite imagery shows no supertanker loadings on May 8, May 9 and May 11 (we don't have data for May 10 from either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel-2 🛰️). It looks like the longest stretch without loadings...
Silver Surges as Demand Outpaces Constrained Supply
Oops. I was told the silver bubble burst two months ago and that it was never coming back. That view failed to understand a simple reality: Commodities never peak when structural demand is rising while both current and future supply remain heavily constrained. Classic...
Price Controls Temporarily Bridge Futures‑Physical Gap, Then Collapse
Another way to say "disconnect between futures & physical" is "price controls." Price controls work for a while...until they don't.
Brent Futures Slightly Below Dated Brent, No Major Dislocation
Prompt Brent futures are currently $103/bbl, while latest Dated Brent quote is at $105/bbl. Hardly the stuff of acute dislocation. World is in a record supply deficit, though at this stage market still choosing to be more patient re: accumulating the consequences...
Silver Returns to Daily Uptrend with Higher Highs
silver (right) is back in a short-term/daily uptrend with higher highs and higher lows on the chart... https://t.co/6dR69hG8lT
Oil Shifts From Inflation Gauge to Geopolitical Fragility Signal
Higher oil prices used to signal market tightness Now they signal system disorder Oil is evolving from an inflation-growth indicator to a geopolitical fragility indicator #OilMarkets #WTI #OVX #Volatility #Energy #Geopolitics #IranWar #UkraineWar #Commodities #Macro #SystemicRisk #TrumpTariffs
Industrial Metals Surge as Data Center Demand Rises
You can't build all those data centers without industrial metals. The Bloomberg Industrial Metals index closed Friday at the highest level since June 2022. Included in this are aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc and lead. https://t.co/SSMF2A8lms
USDA Confirms 380k Tons to Mexico, 128k to South Korea
USDA confirms the following U.S. corn export sales: ▪️380,000 metric tons to Mexico (220kt in 2025/26 and 160kt in 2026/27) ▪️128,000 tons to South Korea in 2025/26
Markets Overestimate Rate Cut; Stay Cautious on Pumps
Markets are pricing in Kevin Warsh like he's going to cut rates on day one. He can't. Oil is $105 and CPI is still 3.7%. The committee won't move. Be very careful chasing pumps in this market.
Yield vs Oil: Diverging Trends on 3-Day Tick Chart
3-day tick chart ... * White (right scale), U.S. 10-year yield * Blue (left scale), June WTI Crude Oil Futures What is the difference? https://t.co/nwUGdEL9j4
Fertilizer Giant Shows War‑Driven Price Surge Amid Supply Chain Chaos
Major US fertilizer company...whose end market product's price is SOARING as a result of the war...and yet 👇. "Supply Chain Breaks 101" class just started; take good notes, the lessons contained in this earnings release will be on the final...
China Drives Platinum Surge, Prompting South African Production Boost
China is pulling platinum into the country hard. A major Chinese refiner reports surging physical delivery demand on the new Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum contract. Speculators and industrial users are opting for delivery rather than closing shorts, capturing the premium over...
China Hikes Gas to $5/Gallon, Pumps Stay Calm
#China raised gas prices on May 8 to $4.99/gallon nationally. In Beijing, price at the pump is now $5.15/gallon. No long lines at the pump as there were in the earlier days of the Iran war though. My visit to...
Elasticity Holds Crude, Corn Prices; Copper Vulnerable to Market Swings
Crude, Corn, Copper vs. Primary Forces of Elasticity, Dependency Elasticity is a top force that has kept the primary energy and agriculture commodities -- crude oil and corn -- under price pressure for decades, and 2026 is a good test. Ample...
Copper Prices Now Riding on US Stock Market
Copper Heavily Reliant on a Rising Stock Market Copper appears increasingly dependent on the US stock market to keep going up for the metal not to go down. My graphic featuring the per-pound price of copper on the same scale as...
Corn Set for Second-Half Price Pressure, Consumers Benefit
Corn, Like Crude, Faces 2H Price Pressure Similar to crude oil, the US is the largest producer of corn and a net exporter, while prices have bounced in 1H and domestic supplies are ample. The recipe benefits consumers, not prices. Full report...
Oil Market Broken: Unprecedented Shock, Bias, Possible Insider Trading
The oil market is broken, I told @Bloomberg TV. - Oil market players are in uncharted territory -- a supply shock of this duration and magnitude is unprecedented - There is an optimism bias, no doubt fuelled by misdirection ("imminent deal")...
Gas Dominates European Power Prices, Driving Higher Costs
Where gas sets prices, prices are higher. r = 0.91 across European electricity markets. Italy & UK: gas sets prices 75-80% of hours, avg €90-115/MWh. Finland: 15% of hours, €42/MWh. More in next newsletter on whether renewables mean lower prices: https://t.co/In5lBaF2ox https://t.co/NWmfk3NfQh
Oil Cargo Prices Plunge as Buyers Retreat
MUST READ: The cost of a real-world oil cargo is dropping fast as buyers back away. The sharp retreat provides a counterintuitive backdrop to warnings the oil market is barreling toward a crisis point. Still, traders cautioned the calm may be...
China's Infrastructure Push Fuels Iron Ore Rally
1/4 Bloomberg: "Iron ore rose as signs of solid Chinese demand offset concerns over rising supply" No surprise here. China needed to boost infrastructure investment sharply, and this had to be good for related commodities. https://t.co/xLQ6XURUTD
Price Controls Trigger Gas Station Closures, Shortages
Tragic but predictable: South Korea imposed communist-style price controls on gasoline… and gas stations started closing. Shortages incoming. Price controls never work
China's Steel Exports Dip to 2023 Low After 2025 Record
Chinese exported a record quantity of steel in 2025, which annoyed a lot of its trade partners. That pace has slowed somewhat this year. Year to date it's at the lowest level since 2023 (although still the fourth highest on...
Brent Surges 4%, Threatening Global Economy Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Brent up over 4% Mon morning >$105. I see a Pakistan request in the works... or maybe it will be Qatar now. I see a Trump TACO coming. But seriously, this has gone beyond ridiculous now and dangerously damaging to the global...
Silver Leads as Gold‑Silver Ratio Tightens to 57.9
Good morning China; The gold-silver ratio compressed this morning (57.9) as #silver led the precious metals sector during the Asian hours
Nat Gas Shows Higher Low, Inverted H&S Forming
Nat gas - what do we have here: First higher low on the dailies and potential for an inverted head and shoulders. Rumor is that folks going to be running those ACs full blast in the midwest the...
Corn Rebounds; Post‑flush Rally May Become Sustainable
Corn start of another daily swing up after a long liquidation flush. After these flushes a more sustainable rally can take hold. https://t.co/gUHutZKqay
$7 Diesel Cripples Trucking, Exposes US Oil Dependence
$7 diesel. NW Indiana. Bad for trucking. And supply chains. Imagine the price if the US did not have all that oil that Trump talks about.
Corn Bets May Be More Vulnerable than Soy
🔥Speculators built record bullish bets across U.S. grains & oilseeds in the first week of May, anchored by massive net longs in corn and soybeans. But which of those positions looks more vulnerable right now? I break this down in my...
Gold Holds Support, Poised for Range Breakout
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Defends Key Support- Range Breakout Ahead https://t.co/YRJlERclMP $XAUUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/SDW7ocoF3m
Oil Inventories Plummet, Looming Shortage Will Trigger Price Spike
The world is burning through oil inventories at the fastest pace on record. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, stockpiles have fallen by 4.8 million barrels per day, exceeding the peak COVID drawdown. Once inventories run dry, we will switch from...
Yen Surge Could Trigger Oil Price Crash
Japan's Yen Surge: The Oil Shock Threat Explained. We explore the real risk of a 'tail event' from Japan, focusing on a potential Yen surge and its devastating impact on oil prices. Discover the economic domino effect. TailEvent #YenSurge #JapanEconomy...
Iran Blockade Lowers Oil Prices, Confirming Original Prediction
When I first started pushing for an Iran blockade, my main point was that the big rise in oil prices already priced the incremental disruption to supply, so the pros outweighed the cons. That's been borne out. Oil prices are...
Spain's Power Prices Plummet as Renewables Dom
NEW ANALYSIS: What's going on in Spain? Spain's wholesale electricity price in early 2026: €44/MWh. Italy: €127. Germany: €96. UK: €103. Wind+solar deliver 44% of generation. Gas sets price in just 9% of hours, down from 55% in 2022. Full analysis: https://t.co/ZpDqJ4goY2 https://t.co/nVuNjum8tX
Qatalum Maintains 60% Aluminium Output Amid Gulf Shipping Disruption
Qatalum keeps aluminium output at 60% as gas supply continues amid Gulf shipping disruption. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/05/qatalum-aluminium-output-to-stay-at-60.html
Brent Slides 6% to $101, Monday Likely Flat
Brent futures price fell $6.88 (6%) from $108.17 to $101.29 week ending May 8 Downward or sideways price movement is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/mfF2wiV847
Current Oil Price Low, but Inventory Deficit Just Arrived
Why do so many think today's oil price is too low? $106 WTI is 88% of the Ukraine-war peak, yet comparative inventory just moved into deficit In 2022, the C.I. deficit was 150x larger when oil was $120 Just because people think prices...
Falling Imports Reflect Export Collapse, Not Demand Destruction
falling imports isn't demand destruction, guys imports *have* to fall because exports have collapsed, going back to the discussion about the end of the "air pocket" then you draw down stocks, then prices rise, and then you destroy demand
US Oil Reserves Near Depletion by July If Hormuz Closed
My take on the upcoming oil inventory shortages: "If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, the US will come close to depleting its inventories of oil by the end of July. When inventories run out, we will face a real...
Wind‑storage Beats Coal, Slashes Germany’s Gas Costs
Firm wind+storage in Germany is now at $91/MWh, plummeting to $73 by 2030. It’s already cheaper than the marginal cost of coal and gas. This shift secures €250 billion in savings on Germany’s gas import bill by 2035 The math is...
Brazil Sets Record Soy Exports to China Amid Chinese Shortfall
🇨🇳China's soybean imports fell short of expectations again last month, but an armada of Brazilian soybeans is charging across the Atlantic. 🇧🇷Brazil exported more soybeans in April than in any month on record, with most of them destined for China. https://t.co/rLkRDdvjst
Analysts Predict Gas Prices, Miss Strait of Hormuz Reality
Wall Street analysts keep giving us gas price predictions for Memorial Day and end-of-year. They seem incapable of escaping the news cycle which is purposely avoiding the real truths on what's actually happening in the Strait of Hormuz. A thread....
WTI Spreads Hit Record Despite Lower Futures Prices
Record WTI spreads at lower futures prices than previous highs The market is pricing an acute near-term squeeze and a belief that it resolves #OilMarkets #WTI #Futures #Energy https://t.co/jobAC4TV8G
Crude Oil at Record Premium Over Gas Signals Reversion Risk
Crude Oil's Extreme Premium vs. Itself, Natural Gas Crude has never stretched to a greater premium to its 100-week moving average and vs. the price of natural gas in the history of WTI futures trading (since 1985) and US natural gas...
Oil Inventories Plummet, Raising Spike and Shortage Risks
Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments...
Oil Expected to Decline as Iran Conflict Likely Subsides
$USOIL - Given that it's highly unlikely that the war in Iran will resume crude oil should generally move lower over the coming weeks, with occasional bounces whenever there's news about an escalation of the situation like the ones we...
US Refineries Ramp Up Ahead of Summer Driving Surge
Summer driving season approaching - U.S. refineries have the pedal to the metal right now - triggering stress points.
Copper's Record Highs Yet Cheap vs Gold—Brief Rally Likely
It’s wild to see copper hitting record highs while still trading near historical lows when priced in gold terms. The copper-to-gold ratio remains nearly 80% below its 2006 peak. More importantly: Periods where copper became this cheap relative to gold have historically not...
China's April Crude Imports Plunge Below 2019 Levels
Big drop in crude import volumes out of China in April Imports dipped below 2019 levels Clearly helped stabilize the global market (gas imports also down) https://t.co/XJmsiZkLkp
Investors See Middle East Conflict De‑escalating Amid Ceasefire Violations
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI: There were several developments to note last week, but arguably the most important was that investors are optimistic that the Middle East war is winding down despite some violations of the ceasefire. June WTI...