Global Commodities: A Perfect Storm
In this episode, host Natasha Kanova and JP Morgan European natural gas analyst Otar Deboadze dissect the current oil and gas market dynamics amid the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. They note that oil flows have risen to about 5.1 million barrels per day—still only 25% of pre‑conflict levels—while demand losses are double those seen during the 2009 financial crisis, keeping crude prices near $100 per barrel. Conversely, LNG shipments through the strait remain negligible, and Europe faces record‑low gas storage (around 33% full) amid rising summer cooling demand and limited additional supply, creating a "perfect storm" that could push TTF prices higher in Q3. The discussion also highlights the growing risk of policy interventions in Germany and elsewhere to address storage shortfalls.
Global Rates: ECB, Cross-Market Views and UK Politics Update
In this episode of At Any Rate, JPMorgan’s European Rates Strategy head Francis Diamond and colleagues Kigenja Gupta and Aditya Chaudhia examine the Eurozone rate outlook ahead of the June ECB meeting, noting that a 25‑bp hike is fully priced...
Global Commodities: Can the World Live with 9% Less Oil?
In this episode, J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research analyst Natasha Kanova examines the unprecedented 9% drop in global oil demand—about 900,000 barrels per day—driven largely by shifts in China and Europe toward electric transport, rail, and lower‑carbon alternatives rather than...
EM Fixed Income: EM Resilience Amid Renewed USD Strength and Idiosyncratic Pitfalls
The episode examines the resilience of emerging‑market (EM) sovereign credit amid a backdrop of stronger U.S. dollar strength, higher global rates, and lingering inflation pressures. JPMorgan strategists Ben Ramsey, Ineska Kristovova, and Nishan Pujari discuss how robust growth in many...
Global FX: EUR-USD Divergences, Systematic Signals, Sterling Struggles
In this episode of JPMorgan’s At Any Rate, co‑head of FX Strategy Meera Chandan and guests Patrick Locke (MacroFX) and Antonin Diller (Systematic FX) dissect recent currency moves, highlighting a renewed bullish stance on the U.S. dollar driven by stronger...
EM Fixed Income: Inflation Pressures and Idiosyncratic EMEA EM Politics
In this episode, JPMorgan’s Ben Ramsey, Aneska Kristovova, and Mike Harrison discuss how recent U.S. inflation data and the lingering Iran‑related energy conflict are reshaping risk‑reward dynamics in emerging‑market (EM) fixed income. They note that stronger-than‑expected CPI and PPI numbers...
Global Commodities: An Inventory Detour
In this episode Greg Shearer and J.P. Morgan’s European natural‑gas analyst Otar Degboadzi discuss how inventory levels are shaping commodity markets. They note that U.S. gas storage is near full capacity (about 2.2 trillion cubic feet), while European gas inventories are...
Global FX: Yentervention and Other FX Policy Stories
In this episode, Arindam Sandhile and his global team dissect the current FX landscape, focusing on Japan's recent yen intervention, the limited upside for the dollar amid uncertain Fed policy, and the performance of real‑rate currencies like the Norwegian krone...
EM Fixed Income: Parsing Peace Talks and Payrolls
In this episode of Emerging Market Fixed Income, JPMorgan strategists Aneska Christovova, Ben Ramsey, and Tanya Escobedo dissect the latest Middle East cease‑fire talks, U.S. non‑farm payroll data, and their ripple effects across EM FX, sovereign credit spreads, and local...
In Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx
In this episode, JPMorgan equity strategist Bupinder Singh and credit head Nathaniel Rosenbaum examine the surge in AI‑related capital expenditures, which are set to double to roughly $1.4 trillion for public firms and could reach $2.5‑3 trillion when private and non‑U.S. spending...
Global Commodities: Running the Numbers on Gas
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan gas analyst Atar Kavuadza explains how the ongoing Middle East conflict has crippled LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving roughly 16 vessels idle and cutting about 300 million cubic metres per...
Global Rates: Central Banks Likely to Wait-and-See Against a Backdrop of Ongoing Middle-East Uncertainty
The episode examines upcoming policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and BoE against the backdrop of the Middle‑East conflict and rising energy prices. Analysts attribute the US rate rise to solid consumption data and a dovish‑leaning Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh,...
Global FX: Cease-Fire, the Dollar, DM/EM FX Impact, IMF Round-Up
In this episode, J.P. Morgan FX strategists discuss the market reaction to the recent cease‑fire announcement, noting that high‑yielding currencies like Brazil, the Australian dollar and emerging‑market (EM) FX have rebounded, while low‑yielders such as the Chinese yuan have lagged....
Global Commodities: Prices Get Relief
In this episode, J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research analyst Greg Shearer explains how the recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Middle‑East aluminum smelters are reshaping supply dynamics for both oil and aluminum. He uses a "black‑hole"...
US Rates - GSIB and Basel III Endgame Update
In this episode, JPMorgan researchers Ipek Ozil and Teresa Ho break down the latest Basel III endgame and GSIB surcharge proposals, focusing on how the changes will affect funding markets, especially repo and swap spreads. They explain that the new...