Global Commodities: Running the Numbers on Gas
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan gas analyst Atar Kavuadza explains how the ongoing Middle East conflict has crippled LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving roughly 16 vessels idle and cutting about 300 million cubic metres per day of supply from Qatar and the UAE. He outlines Qatar’s limited restart capacity—about 10 million tonnes per annum (≈13‑14% of total output) and a two‑to‑three‑month timeline to reach 80% utilization—while noting that U.S., Malaysian, and African sources are offsetting roughly 130 million cubic metres per day, leaving a shortfall of 170‑180 million cubic metres that is being absorbed by demand destruction, especially in Asia. Kavuadza highlights the higher elasticity of natural gas versus oil, with coal substitution and healthier coal inventories dampening price spikes, and projects European summer gas prices at €55‑60 per MWh to encourage LNG imports and curb Asian demand.
Global Rates: Central Banks Likely to Wait-and-See Against a Backdrop of Ongoing Middle-East Uncertainty
The episode examines upcoming policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and BoE against the backdrop of the Middle‑East conflict and rising energy prices. Analysts attribute the US rate rise to solid consumption data and a dovish‑leaning Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh,...
Global FX: Cease-Fire, the Dollar, DM/EM FX Impact, IMF Round-Up
In this episode, J.P. Morgan FX strategists discuss the market reaction to the recent cease‑fire announcement, noting that high‑yielding currencies like Brazil, the Australian dollar and emerging‑market (EM) FX have rebounded, while low‑yielders such as the Chinese yuan have lagged....
Global Commodities: Prices Get Relief
In this episode, J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research analyst Greg Shearer explains how the recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Middle‑East aluminum smelters are reshaping supply dynamics for both oil and aluminum. He uses a "black‑hole"...
US Rates - GSIB and Basel III Endgame Update
In this episode, JPMorgan researchers Ipek Ozil and Teresa Ho break down the latest Basel III endgame and GSIB surcharge proposals, focusing on how the changes will affect funding markets, especially repo and swap spreads. They explain that the new...
Global Commodities: A Month of Disruption
In this episode, JP Morgan analysts Greg Scheer (Precious Metals) and Tatar de Boadze (European Natural Gas) dissect the fallout from the escalating Middle‑East conflict on commodities. They note historically low European gas inventories (18‑28% full) and limited LNG flows, while oil...
Global Commodities: What Are the Markets Missing?
In this episode, JP Morgan analysts Greg Scheer (precious and base metals) and Atar de Boadze (European natural gas) dissect the escalating Middle‑East conflict’s impact on commodities. They detail how attacks on Iranian, UAE and Qatari gas infrastructure have trimmed Qatar’s...
Global Rates: Global DM Swap Spread Outlook
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan’s global rate strategy team breaks down recent dynamics in developed‑market (DM) swap spreads, highlighting how central‑bank policy expectations and technical factors drive the curves across the US, Germany, the UK, Japan and...
European Rate Markets: Eurobonds, By-Elections and the Spring Statement
In this episode, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chaudhia discuss European rate markets, focusing on euro‑area bond issuance, German duration outlook, and UK political developments. They assess the limited near‑term impact of proposed EU defence‑related Eurobonds, maintaining a neutral stance on...
Global FX: How Much Is Too Much?
In this episode, J.P. Morgan Global Research analysts Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan, and Patrick Locke examine the current foreign‑exchange (FX) outlook, focusing on how recent US equity stress and the relative underperformance of US stocks are influencing currency markets. They...
European Rates: Scandinavian Rate Outlook – a Long Winter Hibernation
In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond and Frida Infante examine the current state and near‑term outlook for Swedish and Norwegian sovereign and corporate rate markets. They highlight that both countries are entering a prolonged period of low‑rate...
Global FX: RBA, JP Elections, Euro/APAC Rotation, Dovish BoE, US Data
The FX team discusses a variety of topics: the euro bloc/ APAC FX rotation, RBA hawkish pivot, scenarios around upcoming JP elections, the dovish BoE surprise and recent US data. This podcast was recorded on 06 February 2026. This communication is...
European Rates: ECB and BoE February Meetings, Skinny Carry in Euro Area, Increased UK Political Noise
In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia, and Khagendra Gupta dissect the February policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, highlighting the limited rate‑differential (or "skinny carry") in the Eurozone and...