Epic Fury Ends, but Iran Still Dominates Hormuz
Operation Epic Fury may be over, but the war itself is not as Iran and the US trade fire. Despite claims of victory, US shifting goals haven’t been achieved: Iran controls Hormuz, has missiles, and can still produce drones. I joined @BBC last night to discuss the Iran conflict. https://t.co/5ntylI95ru
US Loses 24+ Reapers, $1 B Cost, Production Lag
Fighting wars from a distance still comes at a cost: the US has lost 24+ MQ-9 Reaper drones in the Iran war -- nearly $1B. But with no active production line, these drones are too expensive and too few to...
China Watching Iran War to Exploit US Weaknesses
The Iran war is giving China a real-time look at US capabilities, operational concepts, and munitions constraints. Beijing will shape its concepts and capabilities to exploit these vulnerabilities --like it did after the Gulf War. Featured in @politico: https://t.co/jhLmhtc5Eo
Trump Halted Project Freedom over Risk, Capability, Billions Cost
3 reasons why Trump paused Project Freedom: 1) the risk of Iranian attack, 2) amount of capabilities required, and 3) the high cost of conducting the mission. I told @business that repeating these transits hundreds of times would quickly cost...
Next Two Weeks Critical for Possible Trump Iran Strike
Will Trump strike Iran again? If he decides to, we think the next 2 weeks are key window. • Econ: blockade impact slower than desired • Mil: brief 3 carrier posture; ARG + ground forces inbound • Pol: mid-May Xi meeting...
Official Costs Exclude Base Damage; True Bill Higher
This is likely an accounting of munitions, destroyed equipment, and some O&M costs. What it probably does not cover is the cost of base damage -- in part because the Trump administration believes the Gulf states will pay for reconstruction....
US and Iran Stuck in Tense Limbo, Hormuz Risk
Told @business News Now: both the US and Iran are in purgatory. There’s no war, but there’s nothing close to peace. Tensions are high and the risk of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is real, with major implications for...
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise Amid Leaky Blockade
Great to join @kaileyleinz on @BloombergTV last night for a visual briefing of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz: a leaky blockade, high tensions, and all sides in the Iran conflict repositioning in case things get hot in the...
US Blockade in Hormuz Unlikely to Force Iran’s Surrender
The Iran conflict has entered a new phase centered on the Strait of Hormuz. The US blockade will remain in place but it won't achieve its goal: economically squeezing Iran into capitulation. Analysis w/@DEsfandiary & @ChrisJKennedy featured @business: https://t.co/iqV6ihtc4T https://t.co/VYTYvhvcxA
Ceasefire Extension Likely as US‑Iran Talks Stall
I joined @BBC prior to the delay in US-Iran talks. My upside scenario was an extension of the ceasefire because both sides are too far apart for a lasting deal and the alternative — resumed strikes and further escalation —...
Iran Talks Failure Could Spike US Missile Stockpiles
Talked with the great @tomkeene and @ptsweeney on Surveillance @BloombergRadio about US-Iran negotiations, the prospect of more strikes and a continued blockade if the talks fail, and the implications for US missile stockpiles and defense spending. https://t.co/7ACooMZIMD
U.S. Should Remove Iran’s Enriched Uranium in Peacetime
Joined @AudieCornish on @CNNThisMorning to discuss how the US military could remove Iran’s highly enriched uranium. My take: this is a peacetime operation. The risks are too high during an active conflict as it requires US boots on the ground...
Pentagon Deploys Carrier Group and MEU Before Ceasefire
Friendly reminder that these deployments -- a third carrier strike group and another Marine Expeditionary Unit -- were already announced by the Pentagon and in transit to the Middle East prior to the ceasefire.
Funding Surge Won’t Fix Missile Production Bottlenecks
The FY27 DoD budget bets big on munitions — and Congress funding it. But money won’t solve everything: bottlenecks in solid rocket motors and seekers will still constrain missile production. My thoughts for @ValerieInsinna @BreakingDefense : https://t.co/nApt3Xul7I
US Can Blockade Iran, But Faces High Drone Threat
The US has the military resources to conduct a blockade, but it would likely be risky and operationally difficult. US naval forces would face Iranian drone and missile threats, raising the risk of direct confrontation if hit. Our take in...