Ceasefire Extension Likely as US‑Iran Talks Stall
I joined @BBC prior to the delay in US-Iran talks. My upside scenario was an extension of the ceasefire because both sides are too far apart for a lasting deal and the alternative — resumed strikes and further escalation — would carry high economic and human cost. https://t.co/fXZTXIaTFv
Iran Talks Failure Could Spike US Missile Stockpiles
Talked with the great @tomkeene and @ptsweeney on Surveillance @BloombergRadio about US-Iran negotiations, the prospect of more strikes and a continued blockade if the talks fail, and the implications for US missile stockpiles and defense spending. https://t.co/7ACooMZIMD
U.S. Should Remove Iran’s Enriched Uranium in Peacetime
Joined @AudieCornish on @CNNThisMorning to discuss how the US military could remove Iran’s highly enriched uranium. My take: this is a peacetime operation. The risks are too high during an active conflict as it requires US boots on the ground...
Pentagon Deploys Carrier Group and MEU Before Ceasefire
Friendly reminder that these deployments -- a third carrier strike group and another Marine Expeditionary Unit -- were already announced by the Pentagon and in transit to the Middle East prior to the ceasefire.
Funding Surge Won’t Fix Missile Production Bottlenecks
The FY27 DoD budget bets big on munitions — and Congress funding it. But money won’t solve everything: bottlenecks in solid rocket motors and seekers will still constrain missile production. My thoughts for @ValerieInsinna @BreakingDefense : https://t.co/nApt3Xul7I
US Can Blockade Iran, But Faces High Drone Threat
The US has the military resources to conduct a blockade, but it would likely be risky and operationally difficult. US naval forces would face Iranian drone and missile threats, raising the risk of direct confrontation if hit. Our take in...
Ceasefire Temporary; Israel Wild Card, Iran Controls Hormuz
Joined @CNNThisMorning earlier today to try to make sense of the ceasefire. Several hour later, my take remains true: the pause in fighting is likely only temporary, Israel remains the wild card, and Iran still holds the cards on the...
Iran's Barrage Tests Fragile Ceasefire; US Remains Sole Adherent
Iran has launched at least 154 projectiles at the Gulf since the ceasefire was announced, the Strait remains closed, and Israel is striking in Lebanon. The US may be the only party adhering to the fragile ceasefire -- at least...
US Delays Japan Tomahawk Deal Amid Iran Stockpile Drain
The US is delaying Japan’s Tomahawk purchase as the Iran war burns through stockpiles. I’ve warned that the high use and slow replenishment of TLAMs would create a gap. The readiness bill is now due and allies are bearing the...
US Ground Deployments to Middle East Irreversible, Trump Unfazed
I talked to @DavidCharter @thetimes about the latest US ground force deployments to the Middle East. Regardless of what Trump may say, once these deployments are in motion they are hard to stop -- as is Trump's willingness to use...
Trump's Risky Plans Unlikely to Achieve Intended Impact
We looked at these scenarios and more — each one highly risky, highly resource intensive, and highly unlikely to have the effect Trump seeks. For Iran, these will be far from “final blows” in an existential conflict. On @TheTerminal: https://t.co/fclmIu8hzC https://t.co/N6PWbx454s
Iran Fires Fewer Missiles, Yet Hits More Frequently
Iran’s missile and drone arsenal has taken a hit, but what remains is being used more efficiently. Tehran continues fire an average of 21 missiles per week — with an uptick in its hit rate and ability to impose costs....
Trump’s War Tactics Falter Against Iran’s Asymmetric Strategy
I joined @davidgura and the @BloombergTV Weekend team to analyze Trump’s way of war and why US high-end capabilities and operational effectivenesss hasn’t translated into strategic success against Iran’s asymmetric approach. https://t.co/ewdcJZuArV
Trump’s “War without Entanglement” Reveals Deeper Commitments
Trump’s way of war promises “war without entanglement.” But it means strikes, re-strikes—and potentially boots on the ground. The Iran war is exposing the limits, risking the very forever wars Trump ran against. My latest essay for @business (gift link):...
Iran’s Asymmetric Threats Could Spark US War, Oil Surge
Joined the great @AudieCornish @CNN this morning. We talked about how Iran’s asymmetric capabilities could make the risks of a worst case scenario real: US boots on the ground, a shooting war in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices...