Escalating Conflict Spreads From Hormuz to Iranian Strikes
On @BloombergTV with @kaileyleinz and @JMathieuReports, I walked through the maps and data behind a widening conflict, from the Strait of Hormuz to shifting Iranian strike patterns to damaged energy infrastructure. The takeaway: expect more escalation. https://t.co/MMeopdNbnK
Iran Recalibrates Arsenal, Targets Saudi, Not Depleted
Iran’s arsenal has taken a hit, but it likely isn’t exhausted. Launches are sustained and Saudi Arabia is increasingly in focus. The pattern suggests recalibration, not depletion: Iran can impose costs by causing just enough pain. My analysis @business: https://t.co/BVJUzCttTS...
Iran Conflict Turns Into Prolonged, Resource-Intensive Campaign
The Iran war has shifted from strikes to a sustained operation with no clear end in sight. That raises big questions about munitions depth and the pace of operations. I joined @BloombergRadio’s Here’s Why podcast to unpack how it could...
Iranian Missiles, Drones, and Mines Strain US War Effort
Missiles and mines are stressing the US war effort against Iran. Tehran’s drones and missiles are draining costly US munitions stockpiles. Now mines threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz—and hurt the global economy. I joined @bloombergtv to discuss: https://t.co/VN4egUfKmJ
Iran's Strategy Forces Costly US Munitions Depletion
The US is firing limited advanced munitions - TLAMs, PAC-3s, JASSMs - at a breakneck pace, but replenishing them will take years and billions. Iran is waging a cost-imposing battle on the US defense industrial base -- and its working. @business...
Political Will, Not Attrition, Determines Iran Conflict End
Iran’s drone and missile strikes are down — but they likely aren’t out. I joined @bloombergtv to talk about Iran’s strikes on the Gulf and why political will — not the attrition of materiel — may be a better indicator...
Iran's Missile Stockpile and US Air Superiority Limits
I joined @BloombergTV to talk about two key issues that will shape the next phase of the war: the depth of Iran’s missile and drone inventory, and whether the US can establish more than localized air superiority over Iran. https://t.co/F6HeeJ3FM8
US Shifts to Abundant PGMs, Yet JDAM Shortages Warn
The US air campaign is shifting from using scarce high-end weapons to precision guided munitions. PGM inventory is high, but there are still risks: the US ran dangerously low on JDAMs during ISIS strikes and had to pull from other...
Gulf Air Defenses, Not US Stockpiles, Are Immediate Concern
I talked with @CNN about why the most immediate concern is Gulf air defense interceptors -- not US stockpiles. Even if Iranian attack intensity slows, America's Gulf partners have already fired air defense missiles at a faster than they can...
Iran's Retaliatory Strikes Reveal Remaining Arsenal and Potential “Big Wave”
Great to join @kaileyleinz to walk through Iran’s retaliatory strikes, what it has left in the arsenal, and what the “big wave” of strikes Trump promised might mean. Come for the news, stay for the great maps showing strikes, US...
Middle East's Air Defense Gap Threatens US, Gulf Allies
Joined @kaileyleinz and @JMathieuReports on @BloombergTV last night to discuss the enormous need for air defense in the Middle East and what it means for the US and Gulf states — and Trump’s timeline. https://t.co/ZR6raiPXzJ
Cheap Iranian Drones Outspend Costly US Interceptors
Iran fired 1200+ projectiles at five countries in the first 48 hours. Most were drones. These saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors. $20-50k Shahed drones vs. $4.19M PAC-3 interceptors put US and its partners on the...
Insights on Iran's Missile Depth and Upcoming Retaliation
Follow @business live blog to keep up with latest on Iran -- including my thoughts on Iran's missile depth and the next wave of retaliatory attacks: https://t.co/Qj6mQWHfhF https://t.co/47cxeZWgl3
US Tomahawk Depletion Threatens Future China Conflict Readiness
US destroyers launched Tomahawks at Iranian targets, but here’s the problem: America doesn’t have unlimited TLAMs. The Trump admin burned through big numbers in earlier strikes on Iran, Houthis, and Nigeria without replenishing stockpiles. TLAMs would be vital in a...
Iran’s Missile Reach Limited by Rebuilt Stockpiles
Iran’s initial response was fast: SRBMs hit US bases in the Gulf. Strikes on far bases like Jordan require MRBMs — as do strikes on Israel. Further retaliation and scale of damage hinge on stockpile depth: what was rebuilt after...
DPA Becomes Trump Admin’s Go‑to
As the DoD vs. Anthropic deadline looms, its unclear which DPA authorities may be used. But DPA has emerged as a favorite tool for the Trump admin -- from taking equity stakes to compelling an AI leader, with defense tech...
Limited Iran Strikes Lack Goal, Risk Prolonged Conflict
To Trump, limited air and missile strikes on Iran may look like a quick win. But without a clear objective, limited campaigns often turn into long, costly endeavors. Iran gets a vote too and its response may defy US expectations....
Carrier Group Deployment Expands US Options, Limits Trump's Strike Plan
The Ford Carrier Strike Group is now in the Med. What does that signal about US strike options on Iran and why might Trump's preference for limited strikes not go according to plan? I discussed the escalation risks with @JMathieuReports...
Trump's Surge Gives Iran Strike Capacity, but Costly
Trump's military surge now has the real strike capacity and key enablers needed for weeks of strikes on Iran. I told @FT the scale of this buildup signals credible strike preparation. But sustaining it without action would be incredibly costly...
Iran's Three Pressure Points: US Troops, Allies, Hormuz
What could Iran target if tensions escalate? I joined @SheryAhnNews and @avrilhongTV on @BloombergTV to break down Trump’s Middle East buildup. I outlined 3 pressure points Tehran could hold at risk: US forces, regional partners, and the Strait of Hormuz....
Trump’s Middle East Buildup Raises Iran Strike Odds
Chatted with @kaileyleinz and @JMathieuReports on @BloombergTV about Trump’s military buildup in the Middle East. My take: Strikes on Iran are increasingly likely based on the scale of airpower and types of equipment we’ve seen flow into the region. https://t.co/mueW9lox9q
Europe’s Defense Reset: Funding Gaps and Combat Reality
Join us on Feb 19 for @Bloomberg webinar on the future of Europe. I’ll dig into what Europe’s defense spending reset really means, where investments are most needed, and whether new commitments will translate into credible combat power. Register here: https://t.co/3WMAfVVGVC...
US Caribbean Naval Buildup Costs $2.9B, $20M Daily
We did the math on the US naval buildup in the Caribbean. The total: $2.9B. At its height, costs topped $20M a day. Much was already funded, but combat operations cost extra -- and opportunity costs are difficult to quantify....
US Force Surge Risks Overstretch, Sacrifices Future Readiness
Shifting a carrier strike group and F-35s from the Caribbean to the Middle East shows the US can surge forces, but raises the real risk of overstretch. Repeated retaskings are trading tomorrow’s readiness for today’s pressure campaigns. For @TheTerminal: https://t.co/JBJinJmRNS...
Ford CSG Shift Highlights Readiness Tradeoffs in Carrier Strategy
Before news broke that the Ford CSG was moving from the Caribbean to the Middle East, we were already talking carrier chess on @BloombergTV. I laid out for @JMathieuReports & @kaileyleinz what this deployment really means for readiness and the...
Iran Relies on Massive Missile Arsenal for Deterrence
Iran’s missiles are its only credible deterrent, with bases, shipping lanes, and energy infrastructure in range. Tehran won’t cap missile stockpiles because it needs large numbers to overwhelm defenses and hit targets. With @DEsfandiary on @TheTerminal: https://t.co/zj7y46yUmH https://t.co/PrdB2GZY5w