125 Months Sub‑5% Unemployment Marks Potential Record Expansion
If you take out the pandemic data (it was a fake recession) the unemployment rate has been sub-5% for 125 months Is this the longest economic expansion in history? Why has everyone been so wrong about this cycle? https://t.co/jcHreRBsjB https://t.co/aJhhsPzsZB
Historical Oil Spikes Rarely Sustain Long‑term Gains
Hey Claude: What's the historical market track record when oil rises 50% in a month? Then falls 20% a week later Then rises 10% a week later Then falls 10% a week later Then rises 15% a week later No mistakes please
Life's True Business: Collecting Memories
“The business of life is the acquisition of memories. In the end that’s all there is.” -Mr. Carson https://t.co/lXZXt5eHlc https://t.co/LY8VjDtxLn
Best Miami Vice Found at Stilts, Marco Island
I have an announcement to make: After years of research I have determined the best Miami Vice is served at Stilts in Marco Island Perfect mix https://t.co/VIpCcI5lNC
US Market up, but Major Stocks Face Deep Drawdowns
Despite everything the US stock mkt is up ~19% over the past yr But stocks like: NKE -75% TGT -55% MSFT -32% CRM -49% HOOD -54% COIN -59% DIS -49% are in the midst of large drawdowns Some thoughts on bottom-fishing in stocks that are getting killed: https://t.co/V0Wzw11tys https://t.co/bdBgxKx1GF
46 Firms Created Half US Market Wealth; Most Stocks Lag
From 1926-2025 just 46 companies accounted for half of the $91 trillion in wealth created by the US stock market 60% of stocks underperformed T-bills Some thoughts on how to own the best stocks: https://t.co/chTC5hDP2I https://t.co/4YIroZABKD
S&P 500’s YTD Dip Could Rank Second‑worst Since 2009
The S&P 500 is currently down 6.6% on the year If it finished the year at those levels (a big if) it would be the second worst year since 2009 To be fair there have only been 2 down years in that...
Buying the Dip Delivers Strong Long‑term Market Gains
No one knows how long a correction will last when you're in it But buying stocks when they are down tends to be a good long-term strategy A look at what happens when you buy the stock market down 10%, 20% and...
S&P 500’s War‑Era Sell‑Off Remains Surprisingly Orderly
This feels like the most orderly sell-off of all time These are the daily moves in the S&P 500 since the start of the war No big down days yet at all https://t.co/atbg2iids3
Broad Market Slumps: All Major Assets Down Double Digits
Drawdown update from the highs: S&P 500 -8.0% R2000 -9.1% Nasdaq 100 -10.7% Gold -17.1% NVDA -18.5% MSFT -33.5% Bitcoin -47.5% HOOD -56.2% https://t.co/YFm4woFV3n
Markets Now Drive Geopolitics, Keeping Stocks Resilient
Animal Spirits: The Best Stocks in History Markets rule geopolitics now Why would the Fed raise rates? Why aren't stocks down more this year? Why is gold down 20%? Why are new car payments so high? How to keep your customers happy & more https://t.co/7HhzBVbwb8 https://t.co/D1K44yFSeR
Housing Likely to Underperform Private Equity in Five Years
Predicting forward returns is notoriously difficult but setting expectations can be helpful Which asset class will have worse returns over the next 5 years: Housing or private equity? https://t.co/AbfW2cXe9G https://t.co/ig9j4zorjK
Redemptions Surge as Illiquid Funds Mismatch Expectations
Why are there so many redemption requests for private credit funds? Many reasons The biggest one in the wealth management space is an asset-liability-expectations mismatch in an illiquid fund structure Do you blame the advisor or the investor? https://t.co/mHPWByumnV https://t.co/ByuxkZ57Pv
Oil Forecasts Diverge: $200 vs Under $75 per Barrel
7am: I have a new model that shows oil will be $200/barrel by spring break 9am: I have a new model that shows oil will be under $75/barrel by spring break
US Economy Endures Decade‑Plus Shocks, No Recession
In the 2020s the US economy has survived: A pandemic Supply chain shocks 9% inflation 0% --> 5% interest rates Tariffs War Oil price spike We haven't had a credit cycle or real recession in 17 years https://t.co/eXayk77G0L
