NBA Should Offer Free Playoff Streams for Bars
Went to a bar to watch the Pistons game in between my kids game They don’t have Peacock The NBA needs to make all these streamers free for bars/restaurants during the playoffs
Global Markets Post Strong Gains Across All Indices
Pretty good year for the stock market (again): S&P 500 +5.0% EAFE +5.9% Nasdaq 100 +8.2% R2000 +12.6% EM +16.3% https://t.co/2fOSfjOrBp
Retiring at 55 Requires More Than $1M Savings
45 year old (+wife & 2 kids) has $1 million saved Spends $12k/month Saves $130k/year Wants to retire at age 55 b/c he hates his job Can he retire early? How much does he need? https://t.co/18Hm2FUrJG https://t.co/GEsbZqyuqw
Stock and Housing Gains Fuel Consumer Spending Despite Crises
Why are consumers still spending money despite higher prices, tariffs, energy price spikes, war, etc? You cannot overstate how much wealth has been created in the stock and housing markets in the 2020s Taking stock of consumer balance sheets: https://t.co/2z6xHf95hK https://t.co/6idg1ItOV2
Markets Flip: From Losses to Gains in Weeks
YTD returns a little more than 2 weeks ago: S&P 500 -7.1% Nasdaq 100 -9.0% R2000 -2.5% Now: S&P 500 +4.4% Nasdaq 100 +5.6% R2000 +12.2% It's a strong opinions, loosely held market
Never Trust Oil Price Forecasts, They’re Always Wrong
Just to be safe I'm going to assume every time an energy analyst predicts $200/barrel oil they will be wrong for all of eternity
125 Months Sub‑5% Unemployment Marks Potential Record Expansion
If you take out the pandemic data (it was a fake recession) the unemployment rate has been sub-5% for 125 months Is this the longest economic expansion in history? Why has everyone been so wrong about this cycle? https://t.co/jcHreRBsjB https://t.co/aJhhsPzsZB
Historical Oil Spikes Rarely Sustain Long‑term Gains
Hey Claude: What's the historical market track record when oil rises 50% in a month? Then falls 20% a week later Then rises 10% a week later Then falls 10% a week later Then rises 15% a week later No mistakes please
Life's True Business: Collecting Memories
“The business of life is the acquisition of memories. In the end that’s all there is.” -Mr. Carson https://t.co/lXZXt5eHlc https://t.co/LY8VjDtxLn
Best Miami Vice Found at Stilts, Marco Island
I have an announcement to make: After years of research I have determined the best Miami Vice is served at Stilts in Marco Island Perfect mix https://t.co/VIpCcI5lNC
US Market up, but Major Stocks Face Deep Drawdowns
Despite everything the US stock mkt is up ~19% over the past yr But stocks like: NKE -75% TGT -55% MSFT -32% CRM -49% HOOD -54% COIN -59% DIS -49% are in the midst of large drawdowns Some thoughts on bottom-fishing in stocks that are getting killed: https://t.co/V0Wzw11tys https://t.co/bdBgxKx1GF
46 Firms Created Half US Market Wealth; Most Stocks Lag
From 1926-2025 just 46 companies accounted for half of the $91 trillion in wealth created by the US stock market 60% of stocks underperformed T-bills Some thoughts on how to own the best stocks: https://t.co/chTC5hDP2I https://t.co/4YIroZABKD
S&P 500’s YTD Dip Could Rank Second‑worst Since 2009
The S&P 500 is currently down 6.6% on the year If it finished the year at those levels (a big if) it would be the second worst year since 2009 To be fair there have only been 2 down years in that...
Buying the Dip Delivers Strong Long‑term Market Gains
No one knows how long a correction will last when you're in it But buying stocks when they are down tends to be a good long-term strategy A look at what happens when you buy the stock market down 10%, 20% and...
S&P 500’s War‑Era Sell‑Off Remains Surprisingly Orderly
This feels like the most orderly sell-off of all time These are the daily moves in the S&P 500 since the start of the war No big down days yet at all https://t.co/atbg2iids3
Broad Market Slumps: All Major Assets Down Double Digits
Drawdown update from the highs: S&P 500 -8.0% R2000 -9.1% Nasdaq 100 -10.7% Gold -17.1% NVDA -18.5% MSFT -33.5% Bitcoin -47.5% HOOD -56.2% https://t.co/YFm4woFV3n
Markets Now Drive Geopolitics, Keeping Stocks Resilient
Animal Spirits: The Best Stocks in History Markets rule geopolitics now Why would the Fed raise rates? Why aren't stocks down more this year? Why is gold down 20%? Why are new car payments so high? How to keep your customers happy & more https://t.co/7HhzBVbwb8 https://t.co/D1K44yFSeR
Housing Likely to Underperform Private Equity in Five Years
Predicting forward returns is notoriously difficult but setting expectations can be helpful Which asset class will have worse returns over the next 5 years: Housing or private equity? https://t.co/AbfW2cXe9G https://t.co/ig9j4zorjK
Redemptions Surge as Illiquid Funds Mismatch Expectations
Why are there so many redemption requests for private credit funds? Many reasons The biggest one in the wealth management space is an asset-liability-expectations mismatch in an illiquid fund structure Do you blame the advisor or the investor? https://t.co/mHPWByumnV https://t.co/ByuxkZ57Pv
Oil Forecasts Diverge: $200 vs Under $75 per Barrel
7am: I have a new model that shows oil will be $200/barrel by spring break 9am: I have a new model that shows oil will be under $75/barrel by spring break
US Economy Endures Decade‑Plus Shocks, No Recession
In the 2020s the US economy has survived: A pandemic Supply chain shocks 9% inflation 0% --> 5% interest rates Tariffs War Oil price spike We haven't had a credit cycle or real recession in 17 years https://t.co/eXayk77G0L
Recession Odds: Confusing Percentages Reveal Misunderstanding
Recession probabilities explained: 35% = I don't really believe it 40% = every economist's baseline number 50% = still don't believe it 60% = 25% 100% = 0% chance
Oil Analysts Must Dominate Podcasts on Hormuz, $200 Oil
If you're an oil analyst and you haven't been on at least 7 podcasts this week talking about the Strait of Hormuz and $200 oil what are you even doing w/your career?
AI Boosts Both DIY Investors and Financial Advisors
A guy emailed me: "Financial advising seems like the perfect prey for AI to take over almost immediately." Here's my take: AI will help DIY investors AI will also help financial advisors & their clients Everyone will be better off https://t.co/o1IUE0c4Fh https://t.co/Bey35HYPdu
Market Stays Resilient Despite Decade‑Long S&P Drawdowns
S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns this decade: 2020 -33.9% 2021 -5.2% 2022 -25.4% 2023 -10.3% 2024 -8.5% 2025 -18.9% 2026 -3.4% (so far) Why isn't the market falling more? Why are investors ignoring the headlines? Are we due for a correction? https://t.co/4VHwh9ODKB https://t.co/jZPvMOVHiI
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
Risk-Off Sweep: Major Indices, Crypto, and Metals Plunge
Risk is off today: S&P 500 -2.2% Bitcoin -2.2% Nasdaq 100 -2.4% R2000 -3.4% Gold -4.7% EAFE -4.9% Emerging Mkts -6.7% Silver -8.9%
Boomers Command 45% Spending, 74% Wealth—Shaping Markets
Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: https://t.co/tnQSK0khDB https://t.co/7BBPkFGnml
AI Panic Ignored as Markets Remain Near Peaks
It's kind of amazing there is so much worry about AI doom with the S&P 500 w/in 2% of all-time highs and the unemployment rate at 4.3% Have we ever had an enormous risk like this play out with everyone worried...
Global Markets Outperform S&P, Gap Widens in 2025
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
Global Equities Surge Far Beyond S&P 2025
Since the start of 2025: S&P 500 +19.5% European stocks +45.3% Emerging markets +50.8% Asian stocks +55.9% https://t.co/lrZrKKIC4x
Broad Market Peaks, but Concentrated Bets Can Crash
The stock market is more or less at all-time highs Same with small caps & foreign stocks Yet many name-brand companies are getting nuked right now Concentrated positions are very fun on the upside They can also wreck you on the downside https://t.co/Ng2WpRK35K https://t.co/nMR87p0Tgx