Recession Odds: Confusing Percentages Reveal Misunderstanding
Recession probabilities explained: 35% = I don't really believe it 40% = every economist's baseline number 50% = still don't believe it 60% = 25% 100% = 0% chance
Oil Analysts Must Dominate Podcasts on Hormuz, $200 Oil
If you're an oil analyst and you haven't been on at least 7 podcasts this week talking about the Strait of Hormuz and $200 oil what are you even doing w/your career?
AI Boosts Both DIY Investors and Financial Advisors
A guy emailed me: "Financial advising seems like the perfect prey for AI to take over almost immediately." Here's my take: AI will help DIY investors AI will also help financial advisors & their clients Everyone will be better off https://t.co/o1IUE0c4Fh https://t.co/Bey35HYPdu
Market Stays Resilient Despite Decade‑Long S&P Drawdowns
S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns this decade: 2020 -33.9% 2021 -5.2% 2022 -25.4% 2023 -10.3% 2024 -8.5% 2025 -18.9% 2026 -3.4% (so far) Why isn't the market falling more? Why are investors ignoring the headlines? Are we due for a correction? https://t.co/4VHwh9ODKB https://t.co/jZPvMOVHiI
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
Risk-Off Sweep: Major Indices, Crypto, and Metals Plunge
Risk is off today: S&P 500 -2.2% Bitcoin -2.2% Nasdaq 100 -2.4% R2000 -3.4% Gold -4.7% EAFE -4.9% Emerging Mkts -6.7% Silver -8.9%
Boomers Command 45% Spending, 74% Wealth—Shaping Markets
Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: https://t.co/tnQSK0khDB https://t.co/7BBPkFGnml
AI Panic Ignored as Markets Remain Near Peaks
It's kind of amazing there is so much worry about AI doom with the S&P 500 w/in 2% of all-time highs and the unemployment rate at 4.3% Have we ever had an enormous risk like this play out with everyone worried...
Global Markets Outperform S&P, Gap Widens in 2025
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
Global Equities Surge Far Beyond S&P 2025
Since the start of 2025: S&P 500 +19.5% European stocks +45.3% Emerging markets +50.8% Asian stocks +55.9% https://t.co/lrZrKKIC4x
Broad Market Peaks, but Concentrated Bets Can Crash
The stock market is more or less at all-time highs Same with small caps & foreign stocks Yet many name-brand companies are getting nuked right now Concentrated positions are very fun on the upside They can also wreck you on the downside https://t.co/Ng2WpRK35K https://t.co/nMR87p0Tgx
