Bill McBride (Calculated Risk)
Veteran housing/macro analyst; posts timely notes on housing starts, pending sales, labor, and property‑market indicators.
April Delinquency Rates Slip Slightly for Fannie, Freddie
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in April Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Decreased in April https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-962
Freddie Mac Index Up 1.4%
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 1.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 17% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-dd5
New Home Sales Slip, Prices Drop 15% From Peak
New Home Sales Decrease to 622,000 Annual Rate in April Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-decrease-to-622000
Housing Prices Slip Below 2022 Peaks, Rent Gap Widens
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.7% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 10.3% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-37
U.S. Home Prices Show Modest Gains in March
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.7% year-over-year in March FHFA House Prices Up 0.1% in March; Up 1.7% Year-over-year https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-172
April Pending Home Sales Rise Modestly, Below Expectations
NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 1.4% Increase in April https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-1-4-increase-in-april "Pending home sales in April increased by 1.4% month over month and rose 3.2% year over year" Slightly below expectations. This is for closed sales in May and June.
Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 211k, Slightly Above Forecast
"In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 200,000 to 199,000." Slightly...
April CPI Surges Above Forecast, Core Inflation Accelerates
"CPI increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April ... Core CPI rose 0.4 percent in April. CPI rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April... Core CPI rose 2.8 percent over the year." This was above the...
April Jobs Rise Modestly; Annual Hiring Stalls
"Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent" Above consensus. Previous 2 months revised down. Only 251 thousand jobs added over last year.
New Home Sales Rise; Median Prices Slip 16%
New Home Sales Increase to 682,000 Annual Rate in March Median New Home Price is Down 16% from the Peak due to Change in Mix https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-increase-to-682000
Bank Lending Standards Hold, Residential Loan Demand Slips
SLOOS: "For loans to households, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and unchanged or weaker demand for most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans on balance." https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202604.htm
Housing Prices Slip Below 2022 Peaks, Rent Gap Widens
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.6% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-26
House Price Growth Stalls; Punta Gorda, Austin Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in March; Up only 0.7% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased-9d1
Initial Jobless Claims Drop 26K, Defying Expectations
"In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 189,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000." https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf Much lower than...
March PCE Inflation Accelerates, Core up 0.3% MoM
the PCE price index for March increased 0.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. [YoY] the PCE price index for March increased 3.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2 percent...