Bill McBride (Calculated Risk)
Veteran housing/macro analyst; posts timely notes on housing starts, pending sales, labor, and property‑market indicators.
Initial Jobless Claims Fall 11,000 to 207,000
"In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level."
Purchase Index Drops 1% Weekly, 3% Below Year‑ago
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was unchanged compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago."
March Existing‑home Sales Fall 3.6% Overall
NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 3.6% Decrease in March a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. 1.0% decrease in sales year-over-year.
March CPI Rises Modestly, Inflation Eases Below Expectations
"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in March." CPI 3.3% YoY, Core 2.6% YoY Slightly less...
Income Dips, Consumer Spending Holds Steady in February
"Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February ... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent)." Income below expectations (spending as expected) https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026
Purchase Index Climbs 1% Weekly, Still 7% Below Year‑ago
"The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago."
Used‑car Wholesale Prices Jump 6.2% YoY, Fueling Inflation
"The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 215.3, reflecting a 6.2% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to March 2025." https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-march-2026-trends/ more inflation.
Housing Prices and Rent Ratios Slip Below 2022 Peaks
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 9.7% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-23-7a7
March Payrolls Rise 178k; Unemployment Holds at 4.3%
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
WTI Must Hit $120 to Push Gas to $5 per Gallon
National average gasoline at $4.07. Probably take $120 WTI oil to get to $5 per gallon Gas (WTI now at $112 per barrel)
BofA Sees Near‑4% PCE, Higher Prices Through 2027
BofA on inflation outlook: "Headline PCE is now expected to surge ... close to 4% this quarter. ... we now project price levels at the end of next year to be 50bp above our prior forecast ... i)higher food inflation...
Mortgage Applications Plunge 10% Weekly, Purchase Demand Slides 3%
Mortgage applications decreased 10.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey ... The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier.
Freddie Mac Index Slides; Punta Gorda, Austin Prices Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in February; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 23% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased-8d1
Initial Unemployment Claims Rise to 210,000
"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 205,000."
Single-Family Home Inventory Rises 1.2% Weekly
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-123
