Bill McBride (Calculated Risk)
Veteran housing/macro analyst; posts timely notes on housing starts, pending sales, labor, and property‑market indicators.
Q1 2026 GDP Grows 2% Annualized, Misses Forecast
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March) This was below expectations. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-1st-quarter-2026
Purchase Index Jumps 21% YoY, Modest Weekly Rise
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent higher than the same week one year ago." Note: the comparable...
Single‑Family Delinquencies Slip; Multi‑Family Near Bust Levels
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in March Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Housing Bust High https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-b15
Mortgage Health Holds, but Late‑stage Delinquencies Rise
https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports/first-look-at-march-2026-mortgage-data "While overall mortgage performance remains healthy for most borrowers, the continued buildup in late-stage delinquencies and foreclosure pipelines remains worth watching.”
March Housing Slows; April Sales Poised for Rebound
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look-at-local-housing-markets-05f
Apartment Market Still Tight; 2026 Starts Forecast Slashed
NMHC on Apartments: Market Tightness "mostly unchanged" in April Survey Multifamily executives have lowered their expectations for total 2026 multifamily starts https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nmhc-on-apartments-market-tightness
March Pending Home Sales up 1.5% Despite YoY Dip
NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in March https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-march Year-over-year: "1.1% decrease in pending home sales"
Initial Jobless Claims Fall 11,000 to 207,000
"In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level."
Purchase Index Drops 1% Weekly, 3% Below Year‑ago
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was unchanged compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago."
March Existing‑home Sales Fall 3.6% Overall
NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 3.6% Decrease in March a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. 1.0% decrease in sales year-over-year.
March CPI Rises Modestly, Inflation Eases Below Expectations
"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in March." CPI 3.3% YoY, Core 2.6% YoY Slightly less...
Income Dips, Consumer Spending Holds Steady in February
"Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February ... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent)." Income below expectations (spending as expected) https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026
Purchase Index Climbs 1% Weekly, Still 7% Below Year‑ago
"The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago."
Used‑car Wholesale Prices Jump 6.2% YoY, Fueling Inflation
"The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 215.3, reflecting a 6.2% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to March 2025." https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-march-2026-trends/ more inflation.
Housing Prices and Rent Ratios Slip Below 2022 Peaks
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 9.7% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-23-7a7
March Payrolls Rise 178k; Unemployment Holds at 4.3%
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
WTI Must Hit $120 to Push Gas to $5 per Gallon
National average gasoline at $4.07. Probably take $120 WTI oil to get to $5 per gallon Gas (WTI now at $112 per barrel)
BofA Sees Near‑4% PCE, Higher Prices Through 2027
BofA on inflation outlook: "Headline PCE is now expected to surge ... close to 4% this quarter. ... we now project price levels at the end of next year to be 50bp above our prior forecast ... i)higher food inflation...
Mortgage Applications Plunge 10% Weekly, Purchase Demand Slides 3%
Mortgage applications decreased 10.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey ... The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier.
Freddie Mac Index Slides; Punta Gorda, Austin Prices Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in February; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 23% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased-8d1
Initial Unemployment Claims Rise to 210,000
"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 205,000."
Single-Family Home Inventory Rises 1.2% Weekly
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-123
January 2026 Construction Spending Slightly Declines Amid Upward Revisions
"Construction spending during January 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,190.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised December estimate" https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html This below the consensus forecast for an increase, however the 2 pervious months were revised up.
January New Home Sales Plunge, Prices Drop 13%
New Home Sales Decline Sharply to 587,000 Annual Rate in January Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak due to Change in Mix https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-decline-sharply-to
Single‑Family Home Inventory Rises 1.5% as Season Builds
Altos: Single family existing home inventory up 1.5% week-over-week. This is the time of year inventory starts to build - and it will be important to track.
Initial Jobless Claims Hold Steady at 213,000
"In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000."
Existing-Home Sales Rise to 4.09 M; Prices Edge
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.09 million SAAR in February Median House Prices Increased 0.3% Year-over-Year https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-836
Sales May Beat Forecast Despite Slight YoY Decline
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-b1a My sense - based on limited data - is sales will be above the consensus forecast, but will likely be down slightly year-over-year.
Property Insurance Costs Hit Record High
March ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Average annual property insurance payments rose to an all-time high" https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/march-ice-mortgage-monitor-average
Altos Single-Family Inventory Drops 1.4% Weekly
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 1.4% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look-at-local-housing-markets-899
U.S. Home Prices Stagnate, Punta Gorda & Austin Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in January; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 22% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased
Housing Prices Slip Below 2022 Peaks After Inflation Adjustment
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 9.5% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-22-75d
Purchase Index Falls Weekly, Still Up 12% YoY
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
U.S. Home Prices Show Modest Year‑Over‑Year Gains in December
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in December FHFA House Prices up 1.8% YoY in December https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-129