Bill McBride (Calculated Risk)
Veteran housing/macro analyst; posts timely notes on housing starts, pending sales, labor, and property‑market indicators.
January 2026 Construction Spending Slightly Declines Amid Upward Revisions
"Construction spending during January 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,190.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised December estimate" https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html This below the consensus forecast for an increase, however the 2 pervious months were revised up.
January New Home Sales Plunge, Prices Drop 13%
New Home Sales Decline Sharply to 587,000 Annual Rate in January Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak due to Change in Mix https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-decline-sharply-to
Single‑Family Home Inventory Rises 1.5% as Season Builds
Altos: Single family existing home inventory up 1.5% week-over-week. This is the time of year inventory starts to build - and it will be important to track.
Initial Jobless Claims Hold Steady at 213,000
"In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000."
Existing-Home Sales Rise to 4.09 M; Prices Edge
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.09 million SAAR in February Median House Prices Increased 0.3% Year-over-Year https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-836
Sales May Beat Forecast Despite Slight YoY Decline
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-b1a My sense - based on limited data - is sales will be above the consensus forecast, but will likely be down slightly year-over-year.
Property Insurance Costs Hit Record High
March ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Average annual property insurance payments rose to an all-time high" https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/march-ice-mortgage-monitor-average
Altos Single-Family Inventory Drops 1.4% Weekly
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 1.4% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look-at-local-housing-markets-899
U.S. Home Prices Stagnate, Punta Gorda & Austin Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in January; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 22% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased
Housing Prices Slip Below 2022 Peaks After Inflation Adjustment
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 9.5% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-22-75d
Purchase Index Falls Weekly, Still Up 12% YoY
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
U.S. Home Prices Show Modest Year‑Over‑Year Gains in December
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in December FHFA House Prices up 1.8% YoY in December https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-129
