Recent Posts
Social•Feb 21, 2026
Section 122 Exemptions Enable Net Tariff Reduction
Important. Net effect of striking IEEPA/ reciprocal tariffs and doing the 122 with similar product exemptions should be a tariff reduction.
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Section 122 Tariffs Approaching Rapidly: Key Points
A couple of points on Section 122 tariffs -- as they seem to be coming quickly 1/ https://t.co/s9LF3ZMZ1q
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
IMF's 2025 Report Flawed Using Outdated
This illustrates the problems with the IMF's 2025 external sector report -- for one, it uses the 2024 current account surplus as its measure, and a lot has changed since then ... 1/2 https://t.co/uBaXFvSXhW
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
IEEPA Tariff Ruling Limits Trump’s Broad Tariff Options
The Trump administration is sure to use other authorities (122 maybe, 232, 301) to raise tariffs now that the court has struck down the IEEPA tariffs. But striking down IEEPA still matters, particularly for China/other countries that aren't heavily hit by...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Inflation‑Adjusted Dollar Down 10% Yet Remains Strong
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Busan Deal: US Sacrific
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
IMF Estimates Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Roughly 19%
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Exclude Pharma and Gold to Reveal True US Trade Trend
I think the best way to look at the underlying trend in the US trade data is strip out pharmaceuticals and gold (both were heavily influenced by the threat of tariffs, even though none were imposed on either category) 1/ https://t.co/7l20zR7CTr
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Strategic Partnership Shouldn't Just Be German Production in China
Hope the "strategic partnership" is more than allowing German companies to produce in China for the German (and European) market ...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 19, 2026
China Overtakes Germany as Leading Car Exporter, Threatening German Industry
Good piece "For not only has China’s market begun to dry up for Germany, big chunks of German industry now regard China as a direct threat to their interests" Great chart China is a much bigger net exporter (of cars) now than Germany...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 19, 2026
IMF Must Incorporate Lagged RMB in China Surplus Forecasts
A very important point The IMF needs a new methodology for forecasting China's external surplus, one that explicitly includes the RMB (with lags)
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 19, 2026
China's December Short‑term US Deposits Signal Backdoor Intervention
The China story in the TIC data isn't the slide in China's long-term holdings in US custodians -- it is the rise in China's bills and short-term deposits in December. That hints that some of the December surge in...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 19, 2026
December Goods Deficit Rebounds to Fall‑2024 Levels
December goods deficit (ex oil) was back where it was in the fall of 2024, which seems like a fair read -- the October dip as a one off tied to reversing pharma front running a feared tariff and a...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 19, 2026
IMF: China's Export Growth Harms Its Trading Partners
The latest IMF analysis of China (The staff report/ Article IV) highlights that China's export driven growth has come at the expense of its trading partners. That is welcome, and very necessary message 1/many https://t.co/RTYAzRkFAv
By Brad Setser