GCC Nations Turn Net Drains on Offshore Dollar Liquidity
The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity. The Saudis also will need to borrow dollars to get through 1/ https://t.co/moEfi3QARg
Chip Price Surge Rivals Oil Shock, Adds $300B Surplus
Chip price shock is by some measures as big as the current oil shock -- $300b annual increase in Korean/ Taiwan combined trade surplus v 24 based on latest data (depends of course on where oil settles for the rest...
China’s Auto Export Surge Defies EU Tariffs
The second China shock isn't going to go away on its own, or with half measures -- China's auto exports to Europe, for example, have clearly reaccelerated (even with the narrowly targeted CVDs against battery electric imports) 1/ https://t.co/pdaadEXUrD
China Can Fund Payroll Cuts without Harming Benefits
There is obviously resistance to any move to changing the structure of taxation in China, but I would note a couple of things: 1) a holiday on payroll contributions (or a big cut) need not lead to fall in benefits; the...
Taiwan Fights Chip Boom to Protect Undervalued Currency
Taiwan's willingness to do absolutely anything and everything to keep the chip boom from putting pressure on the wildly undervalued Taiwan dollar is unw=matched ... 1/ https://t.co/yVjNKHd7ci
Cut Payroll Taxes to Revive Chinese Consumption
Agree strongly with Mr. Barnett here "The cure, then, is to boost consumption in China — something no amount of tariffs can achieve. Fortunately, one powerful lever exists: a dramatic, permanent cut in the payroll tax" 1/ https://t.co/Cm8mn17CDD
Oil Spike Highlights Balance‑of‑Payments Shock Over Dollar
With oil rising again (alas), my Odd Lots episode from last week gains new relevance -- tis at least as much about the balance of payments impact of an oil shock as about the dollar https://t.co/JtgH1nPC0z
UAE Holds Strong Reserves Amid Unreported Figures, Seeks Swap Line
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line -- the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians 1/ https://t.co/5Q61nzi68P
Reducing East Asia Surplus Key to Global Economic Balance
Global adjustment really does hinge on bringing down East Asia's surplus -- and of course also brining down the deficit of the US and the UK The second China shock already solved for Germany's surplus https://t.co/CQ5w2tBmTD
Podcast Appearance Urges Urgent Debate on Fixing Imbalances
Thanks Michael -- I hope my appearance on the podcast of the great @SoumayaKeynes puts some urgency back into the debate over how to fix imbalances --
FX Settlement Reveals China’s $35B March Currency Purchases
Fx settlement is in my view the single best proxy for China's true intervention. It looks like China, Inc bought about $35b in fx in March even with all the turmoil in the oil market. That's down...
EV Tariffs Fall Short; Europe Uncovers Chinese FX Meddling
Indeed -- EV tariffs (CVDs) also were clearly an insufficient response (lower than China's old WTO bound 25% auto tariff on Tesla and BYD, easy workaround with plug in hybrids) And Europe only now discovering Chinese intervention in the fx market
Higher Oil Prices Won’t Create Massive Petrodollar Surge
A new blog on a hot topic -- petrodollars The basic theme though is back when oil was at $70 there weren't actually many petrodollars -- and there won't be all that many of them even if oil settles at $100 https://t.co/NFWDnn5zbv 1/
Section 122 Tariffs Hampered by Undefined Terms
A discussion of section 122 -- balance of payments tariffs -- for those interested. Turns out that the statute never defined its key terms -- international payments problem, large and serious balance of payments deficit -- so there is a bit...
Iran Conflict Eases Yuan Pressure as Banks Shed $30B
The Iran war took the heat off China's currency. After facing strong appreciation pressure from November through February, the direction of pressure changed in March -- The state banks look to have reduced their foreign assets by ~...