Hollywood's Unfixable Box Office Weakness Exposed
New Box Office Behavior essay coming Monday. I like this one as it hits on a major Hollywood weakness that has no clear fix (yet). Stay tuned.
Solid Film Feels Like a Lite Who Framed Roger Rabbit
Let’s set aside the art vs commerce history behind this film for a moment. In a vacuum, it just looks flat out solid. Kinda like Who Framed Roger Rabbit lite. I’m into it.
Streaming Thrives on TV Roots, Not Film Libraries
The streaming model is built on the back of TV. Film libraries still matter, but not as much as the industry once thought.
CinemaCon Bigger This Year, Mirrors 2026 Release Surge
Anecdotal from the outside looking in (I'm not there), but consistent with 2026’s increase in wide release volume: #CinemaCon feels noticeably beefier this year. https://t.co/xpf8MOQA44
Rooster Chooses Optimism Over Cynical Redemption Tropes
One thing I like about #Rooster is what it doesn’t do. It’s not another streaming boom-era sad comedy (which I still like) about a broken dad seeking redemption. He’s already a great father trying to do his best. Optimism over...
Kids Films Lead Theatrical Hits; Netflix Animation Lags
I found that Kids Entertainment made up the 2nd-largest share of 40 successful original/new-to-screen theatrical films (2021–2025). Meanwhile, Netflix’s original animation still struggles to break through. Given Brad Bird's talent, I'm hoping he changes that.
Holiday Box Office May Be Too Crowded for Three Blockbusters
Is there enough room on the December holiday box office corridor to support #AvengersDoomsday, #DunePart3 and #Jumanji3? Early tracking reveals some surprising dynamics at play. https://t.co/qP2egtR6qU
Netflix Viewership per User Declines, Signaling Streaming's New Era
#Netflix's viewership-per-user has declined every year from 2023. While the streamer has deployed a few different strategies to address the problem, it's clear #streaming has entered a new era: https://t.co/7cfXvYFqq3
Netflix's Animation Pipeline: Lottery‑ticket Mindset, No Long‑term Planning
The massive gap between S1 and the still-undated S2 of #BlueEyedSamurai is such a microcosm for Netflix's approach to animation development. Strewn about lottery tickets in the hopes that one hits but very little forethought to what comes after. https://t.co/TRomhi6kiq
Audiences Crave Unconventional Theatre Amid Strong Ratings
It doesn't matter if this bombs. Audiences are slowly but increasingly showing an appetite for atypical theatrical content in recent years. It's worth trying, especially given the show's consistently robust ratings.
Casey Bloys 2027 Could Match Hollywood’s Biggest Free‑Agency Moves
Executives and talent aren’t a 1:1 comparison. But if Casey Bloys hits the market in 2027, it could rival JJ Abrams (2020), Christopher Nolan (2021), and Taylor Sheridan (2025) as one of Hollywood’s most consequential free agency moments
Clients Demand Predictive Audience Insights and ROI Clarity
Client questions I hear most: -Can you forecast where audience taste is going? -How does Title X actually stack up vs comps? -Who is the actual audience, how do they behave, what are their other preferences? -How can we improve the bottom line...
Reality TV Stars Earn Little, Not Rich Until Years Later
Reality TV “stars” aren’t getting rich early. Year 1 for new names: $0 guarantees. ~$2K–$5K per episode *only* if you make the final edit and *only* paid after it airs. Takes ~5–6 years to earn real money. No union leverage.
Low Awareness, High Interest: Summer's Persuadable Films
#TheDeathofRobinHood and #DisclosureDay are two of the summer's more interesting bets. Both have sub-26% awareness right now, but interest scores above 43%. This puts them among the strongest persuadable-audience films tracked across the past several weeks.
Excitement Meets Skepticism: Will Budget Meet Reality?
The fan in me loves this. The analyst in me is a lot more skeptical about the commercial prospects. Hopefully the budget matches the reality.
Oscars Shifting to YouTube Signals Losing Cultural Leadership
I hate how much I love the #Oscars. But as the #AcademyAwards prepare to move to @YouTube in 2029, it's clear the ceremony has been relegated to following the audience instead of leading it. My latest for @observer: https://t.co/z2hBnBvjdU
Skeptical of GOT Movie Rumors; Owners May Greenlight It
On the #GameOfThrones movie news: be wary of any development reports not accompanied by a studio quote. That said, given the incoming ownership's hunger for franchise IP, I wouldn't be surprised if it eventually happens.
Netflix's First Big Theatrical Release Tests Fantasy Revival
I'm excited for @netflix's #Narnia movie for three reasons. 1. It's the streamer's biggest theatrical step 2. It will test franchise IP reactivation/fantasy hunger 3. I love Greta Gerwig See how the film is tracking and what it means for the industry. https://t.co/xij6SmW3BX
Warner & Paramount Skydance Deliver 200 Shows, Boost Market Leverage
Warner Bros makes roughly 80 shows a year for internal/external destinations. Paramount Skydance makes roughly 120 shows a year for internal/external destinations. Massive combined leverage as a third-party content supplier on the open market.
Massive Media Mergers Keep Missing Value Creation
AT&T paid $85.4B for Warner Bros. and failed to create value. Disney paid $71.3B for Fox and has struggled to consistently wring value out of it. Discovery paid $43B for Warner Bros. and failed to create value. Paramount will pay $111B...
Netflix Slides 30% After Failed WBD Merger, Confidence Restored
Netflix’s stock is down ~30% since the WBD merger drama began. While losing WBD removes the last clear major growth lever, it likely reestablishes some investor confidence. Longer-term, we’ll see if they miss the lost IP. But recent major media...
WonderMan's Modest Debut: 10.3M Hours, Hopes for Longevity
#WonderMan debuted to 10.3M U.S. hours, per @nielsen. As a ~half hour binge release, that's not awful but it's not great. Longer hit shows tend to premiere to 20M+ hours. I hope it has legs and can stay on the...
Post-Game Libraries Unlock ROI Amid Rising Sports Costs
Audiences love sports, but the cost of sports rights are getting out of control. How can streaming platforms ever hope to generate an ROI? By building the perfect post-game library funnel. My latest for @observer https://t.co/UNOXVWp3wA
The Odyssey Leads; Oppenheimer Lags in Early Tracking
I compared the tracking for #TheOdyssey and #Oppenehimer at the same five-month pre-release point to see what the data says. If you're curious: https://t.co/Pkk9ZNJcVS
Paramount Pulls Aang Despite Franchise’s Strong Viewership
The #Avatar franchise has sustained ~20 years of TV viewership. Animation = ~15% of annual domestic BO. Kids entertainment = 2nd largest genre share of original/new BO hits (2021–25). Yet Paramount still pulled #TheLegendofAang #TheLastAirbender from theaters. Make it make...
Data Guides Positioning, Yet Quality Creativity Wins
Working in entertainment analytics I am often asked how best to position a title for success. But data can help you aim more accurately and efficiently. What it can’t do is provide the single most important element to success: a...