30‑Year Yields Likely to Surpass 5% Barrier
BNP PARIBAS: “Is 5% a resistance level for 30y yields? We don’t think it is .. “.. After 30y yields broke the 4% resistance level in 2023, long-end yields unanchored. We see similar parallels .. scope for term premiums to rise with deficit concerns becoming more acute.” https://t.co/pC8cy3c6Ky
Five Tech Giants Power Over Half S&P Gains
“.. Just five tech stocks — Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom and Apple — have accounted for more than half of the S&P’s recent gains ..” @FT https://t.co/0wPUwvM51X https://t.co/KeYJ03s78G
Inflation Fueled by Rapid Money Growth and Low Inventories
WELLS: “.. inflation is too much money chasing after too few goods. Money supply is growing at the fastest rate since mid-2022, while inventory levels are low after three years of de-stocking.”
Bank Credit Risks Soar Beyond Historical Scale
“.. The sizes we’re talking about . . . they’re out of scale to anything we’ve thought about, ever,” said Matthew Moniot, co-head of credit risk sharing at Man Group. “Banks very quickly start choking.” @FT $XLF https://t.co/f8bCUJdOTK https://t.co/VHZ9tCbdaI
Unemployment Risks May Prompt Fed Rate Hike
BNP PARIBAS: “.. downside risks to the unemployment rate may be underappreciated. This brings with it a growing tail risk that the Fed could consider hiking rates later this year.” https://t.co/ax6DWAd2eV
Only 3% Cut Guidance, Half Historic Average
BESPOKE: “.. only 3% of companies have lowered guidance this season. That's much lower than the 8% that have lowered guidance out of the 90,000+ reports we've tracked over the last ten years.” @bespokeinvest https://t.co/mjNHjwceNE
Oil Shock Fleeting, Fed Should Ignore; Egg Prices Fundamentally Falling
An oil-price shock is “temporary” and the Fed should look through it. But egg price deflation is fundamental.
Goldman: Oil Price Drag Neutralizes 2025 Fiscal Boost
GOLDMAN: “.. we now expect the drag on growth from higher oil prices to roughly offset the boost to growth from the 2025 fiscal bill.” #OBBBA https://t.co/tjt1bVV0cv
Japan Welcomes NATO Delegation Amid US Reliability Concerns
(SCMP) - Japan and Nato are drawing closer together, with 30 representatives from the transatlantic security alliance’s member states set to visit Tokyo this month amid mounting concern over Washington’s reliability as a security partner. @SCMPNews https://t.co/RMvRvxOUJU https://t.co/lxsEqAppGe
Orbán's 16‑year Rule Ends with Crushing Defeat
BUDAPEST — The 16-year reign of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán looks set to end after a crushing election loss on Sunday that will send political shockwaves from Washington to Moscow. @politico https://t.co/lhtXRbEih2 https://t.co/4Dq8n5Qj76
Iran's Minefield Hampers Hormuz Shipping, Lacks Removal Capability
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials. @nytimes...
Iran Retains Thousands of Hidden Ballistic Missiles, U.S. Says
Four-byline alert: 🚨 (WSJ) - Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas, according to American officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments. @WSJ https://t.co/WvyahIWNAP https://t.co/psRi64ZIu2
Bill
Except we’ve spent $50 billion, the Strait is closed and 3000 people are dead. @business https://t.co/9pGmFOwosi https://t.co/vPbMAPO8nn
Consumer Sentiment Hits Historic Low Since 1952
“.. consumer sentiment at its lowest level since the series began in November 1952! .. undercutting the lows of all the prior eleven recessions .. the 1970s oil shock,.. the tech wreck and terrorist attacks of 2001, the GFC of...
Iran's Spending Surge Signals Permanent Expansion
".. This is not a onetime surge that will simply recede when things calm down in Iran. It's an expansion of the spending base. Bureaucracies and procurement contracts do not shrink after a buildup." @reason https://t.co/ScKbVVcm7W