Oil Shock Fleeting, Fed Should Ignore; Egg Prices Fundamentally Falling
An oil-price shock is “temporary” and the Fed should look through it. But egg price deflation is fundamental.
Goldman: Oil Price Drag Neutralizes 2025 Fiscal Boost
GOLDMAN: “.. we now expect the drag on growth from higher oil prices to roughly offset the boost to growth from the 2025 fiscal bill.” #OBBBA https://t.co/tjt1bVV0cv
Japan Welcomes NATO Delegation Amid US Reliability Concerns
(SCMP) - Japan and Nato are drawing closer together, with 30 representatives from the transatlantic security alliance’s member states set to visit Tokyo this month amid mounting concern over Washington’s reliability as a security partner. @SCMPNews https://t.co/RMvRvxOUJU https://t.co/lxsEqAppGe
Orbán's 16‑year Rule Ends with Crushing Defeat
BUDAPEST — The 16-year reign of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán looks set to end after a crushing election loss on Sunday that will send political shockwaves from Washington to Moscow. @politico https://t.co/lhtXRbEih2 https://t.co/4Dq8n5Qj76
Iran's Minefield Hampers Hormuz Shipping, Lacks Removal Capability
(NYT) - Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials. @nytimes...
Iran Retains Thousands of Hidden Ballistic Missiles, U.S. Says
Four-byline alert: 🚨 (WSJ) - Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas, according to American officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments. @WSJ https://t.co/WvyahIWNAP https://t.co/psRi64ZIu2
Bill
Except we’ve spent $50 billion, the Strait is closed and 3000 people are dead. @business https://t.co/9pGmFOwosi https://t.co/vPbMAPO8nn
Consumer Sentiment Hits Historic Low Since 1952
“.. consumer sentiment at its lowest level since the series began in November 1952! .. undercutting the lows of all the prior eleven recessions .. the 1970s oil shock,.. the tech wreck and terrorist attacks of 2001, the GFC of...
Iran's Spending Surge Signals Permanent Expansion
".. This is not a onetime surge that will simply recede when things calm down in Iran. It's an expansion of the spending base. Bureaucracies and procurement contracts do not shrink after a buildup." @reason https://t.co/ScKbVVcm7W
Bombing Strengthens, Not Topples, the Regime
WaPo Page One: The scorecard “after nearly six weeks of bombing makes for sober reading .. the regime has not collapsed; it has hardened ..” @washingtonpost https://t.co/LJoYbRtUBl
US Data Center Rollouts Stalled by Equipment Shortages
ICYMI: “.. Almost half of the US data centers planned for this year are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is the shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries.” @business https://t.co/F04P0tZO1m https://t.co/wwlVqspf9b
Digital Oil Payments Threaten US Financial Dominance
Not good. “.. if payments accompanying 20% of the world’s oil and gas can move through a digital pipe that the US Treasury cannot see, then America’s dominance of global finance has effectively been handed an expiry date.” @opinion https://t.co/HhlUpqnmVF https://t.co/CE6vgUpJlz
Iran's Missile Arsenal Fuels Strait Leverage; CPI Sparks Macro Shift
FEDWATCH: “Iran keeps leverage over the Strait without using significant military force .. gains its leverage from a flexible missile arsenal, remaining at ~1,500 missiles and ~200 launchers “Tomorrow’s CPI is therefore the kickoff for the macro effects as negotiations begin.”...
Trump’s War Seen as Grave Strategic Miscalculation
MILITARY TIMES: “.. This war will be remembered as Trump’s grave strategic miscalculation. One whose consequences reshaped the region in unintended ways,” Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges told Reuters. @MilitaryTimes https://t.co/Gbg94oajEN https://t.co/EQkyHgEhXF
Rare SPY DMA Breach Foreshadows 13‑16%
BTIG, with a “bearish stat”: “.. Since 2003, SPY has opened above both its 50 and 200 DMA while closing below both the day prior just three other times .. “.. Those three periods saw immediate declines of -13%, -16%, and -13%...
