Trump Pressed Pakistan to Secure Iran’s Hormuz Pause
“.. For weeks the Trump administration was leaning on Islamabad to convince the Iranians to agree a pause in fighting where it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the people said.” @FT https://t.co/k5QdDCJy6E https://t.co/JHqlVEbwo8
US Superiority Can't Compel Iran, Despite Russian, Chinese Fears
".. While Moscow and Beijing fear US military and intelligence superiority, they have seen it couldn’t force Iran’s capitulation, the people said." @business https://t.co/3Z3v7Boini
Carlson Urges Officials to Tell President: No Nuclear Strike
".. Raising the specter of the use of a nuclear weapon, Carlson said: 'Now it's time to say no, absolutely not, and say it directly to the president, no.' The officials should tell the president to 'figure out the codes...
Gas Prices Hit Record High Since 2004, AAA Says
BERNSTEIN: Gas prices yesterday “surpassed 2004’s peak to become the highest non-pandemic related gas price in AAA’s history.” ⛽️ https://t.co/lHbZWM1faL
US Deficits Projected Near 7% of GDP by 2026
PIMCO: .. US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026. Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..” https://t.co/fVC6QpbqzB
Iranian Missile Hit Rate Jumps From 3% to 27%
Iranian “missile hit rates against Israel have risen from 3% during the first two weeks of the war to 27%.” - JPM https://t.co/rSwOy1VBxT
Trump Administration Hit with Multiple Judicial Setbacks
The Trump Administration’s legal week in review: 1. Judge finds NPR/CPB defunding violated free speech. 2. Judge orders White House ballroom project halted. 3. Judge rejects bid to revive Jay Powell subpoenas. 4. Bondi fired. 🤡 @WSJ @NickTimiraos https://t.co/5E9ouOHp1U
US Investment, Jobs, Trade Balance All Deteriorate Since Liberation Day
Since Liberation Day, a year ago today: * US foreign direct investment is lower * US factories employ 89,000 fewer people * US goods trade deficit is UP 2% https://t.co/LJ7h0yLJXG https://t.co/vWvQ4Xgy8E
Trump Admits He Sees Government only Funding Military
“.. a glaring admission from Trump, who confessed point-blank that he thinks the government’s only responsibility is to fund the military.” https://t.co/N4U0ZjVQio https://t.co/zxFi7xnGB1
Rising Input Costs Push Index Up, Inflation Near 4%
This index "has now risen by nearly 20 points in just two months, as higher energy prices have come amid rising costs of other raw materials. On past form, it now looks consistent with headline inflation rising to 4% in...
Trump OKs Ending US Campaign Despite Hormuz Closure
“.. Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed .. likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it...
US Officials Anticipate Oil Soaring to $200 per Barrel
“.. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel.” @business https://t.co/jKbSZuzsl7 https://t.co/RvefSmh0vP
Nvidia Hits S&P 500 Forward P/E Parity After Decade
GOLDMAN DESK: “.. Nvidia now trades at par / slight discount to the S&P500 on fwd P/E for the first time in 10+ years. “.. yes, Nvidia is now trading at par with the S&P500 on fwd P/E despite, Nvidia...
Houthis' Missile Threat Could Disrupt Red Sea Oil Flow
FEDWATCH: “.. the Houthis have entered the conflict by launching ballistic missile attacks ..; their next move could be targeting vessels in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb into the Red Sea .. The oil market, rightfully, is sensing that...
Houthi Rebels Launch First Missile Toward Israel
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed a missile launch toward Israel early Saturday, their first since the war in the Middle East started. @AP https://t.co/75O2AhNA64 https://t.co/amP4zOi12O
Iran Hit Trump's Credibility, D
B of A: “.. If Trump’s credibility is “structurally hit by Iran, then ability to jaw-jaw Wall St & force [foreign direct investment] inflows falls ..” [Hartnett] https://t.co/QF657J7op6
Gen. Mattis Warns Iran Could Tax Strait Traffic
GEN. MATTIS: “.. Iran right now, if we declared victory, they would now say they own the strait. .. You’d see a tax for every ship that goes through. .. We’re in a tough spot, ladies and gentlemen. .. I...
Remembering Sondheim: 96 Years of Humanity and Artistry
Sondheim would have turned 96 today. His humanity, his artistry — and his honesty — are missed. #RIP 🙏🏼 https://t.co/BMXbl06ECz
Inflation Double‑top Once Mocked, Now Taken Seriously
Lost count of all the times people scoffed at a 1970s-style inflation “double top.” Not as much laughter now. 😞 https://t.co/FTwzh0yQik
India’s Tanker Move May Pave Way for Iran’s Dominance
FEDWATCH: “.. If [India’s tanker] passage is successful, other countries may follow the Indian example. .. “.. the only way crude price volatility cools off is if there is a decisive winner, which is increasingly looking to be Iran.” [Emons]...
Farmers Fear Fertilizer Shortages Over Prices
This was a good chat on @CNBC Friday about fertilizer supply. The issue for farmers isn’t about high prices for this year’s planting season — they’ve already ordered. The issue is whether they’ll get delivery on their order at all. @moneymoverscnbc https://t.co/uaoLjqU0Vc https://t.co/pBZlY83EA0
Trump Likely Erupts as Allies Negotiate Hormuz Peacefully
Trump’s reaction if countries like Japan and India peaceably negotiate Hormuz passage with Iran — while he’s spending $200 billion to send in Marines — is going to be wild. @business https://t.co/94n5eKo1sC
Iran Holds Leverage Over Strait Reopening, No Clear Solution
Five-byline alert: 🚨 “.. the Iranians have real leverage with this, and there’s not an obvious fix for it,” an intelligence official said of efforts to reopen the strait. @CNN https://t.co/F0HsBMF0Ha https://t.co/23PCXm7d3r
Debt Surged $2.8 Trillion Since President’s Inauguration
“.. Since the President’s inauguration last year, national debt has climbed by around $2.8 trillion.” @TIME https://t.co/mLgUsjkGpd https://t.co/cCYSRTcnd9
French NATO General Warns Trump Will Abandon Allies
FRENCH NATO GEN. YAKOVLEFF: “.. [Trump] wants to share the political risk, not the military risk. .. He’ll drop us the minute it suits him. .. This isn’t the time to buy a promo ticket on the Titanic.” https://t.co/mEGqDFMbiq
Administration's Desperate Oil Plan Fuels Iran's Wartime Sales
“.. The plan .. reflects the administration’s desperation to reduce oil prices, encouraging Iran to sell more oil even while it is at war ..” @nytimes https://t.co/MWCiL3jrqQ https://t.co/wCWv18Be6N
Europe Fears Trump's Greenland Threats Could Backfire
“.. We were very worried this was going to go really wrong,” said one European official about Trump’s repeated threats over Greenland .. @FT https://t.co/aRJZu8MTXr https://t.co/pj12dd13ct
Israel-U.S. Coordinated Iranian Gas Field Strike, Not Repeated.
JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - Israel's attack on an Iranian gas field on Wednesday was coordinated with the United States but is not likely to be repeated, three Israeli officials said, despite President Donald Trump saying he did not know...
Trump Administration Dismantles State Dept's Middle East Expertise
AP follows the @NOTUSreports piece on how the Trump administration had already gutted the State Dept’s staff of Middle East policy experts — and “eliminated the dedicated Iran office ..” @AP https://t.co/F1jjrlTWXe https://t.co/Ffm48gh5WZ
The Paper's Script Nails Newsroom Sarcasm After 32 Years
The Paper” premieres 32 years ago today. Not just a stellar cast (including Duvall, #RIP 🙏🏼 ) .. .. but David Koepp’s script beautifully captures the sarcastic, weary and competitive nature of a local news editorial meeting. @RealRonHoward @MichaelKeaton https://t.co/HiXINzYxa7
US Must Own Its Problems; Allies Doubt Its Rescue
“.. it is up to the US to fix the problem it created .. It cannot be up to others .. “.. Yes, the US will threaten not to come to the rescue of its Nato allies in a crisis. But...
Oil at $150/Barrel Could Push Inflation to 6% Q2
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
He Expands on US Service Deaths Commentary
This is broader commentary than he gave last night — when asked about the deaths of US service personnel.
President Claims Unnamed Allies Will Secure the Strait
“.. The president said several countries have committed to helping secure the strait, but declined to name any of them.” @NBCNews https://t.co/AEDeyaO4FC https://t.co/YFq6h9TnJb
Iran Consolidates, Controls Hormuz, Unfazed by Strikes
RAPIDAN: “.. two weeks into the war, Tehran's leadership has consolidated, forces have dispersed and absorbed strikes without decisive degradation, and Iran is shaping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on its own terms. The regime sees no pressure to...
U.S. Embassy in Baghdad Attacks Prompt Evacuation Warning
(NYT) - The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad urged all American citizens to leave Iraq immediately on Saturday after the embassy was attacked overnight for the second time since the war with Iran started. @nytimes https://t.co/wO7HSobOIs https://t.co/mmQWsGf65e
Yardeni Warns War‑driven Correction, US Credit Cracks
YARDENI: “.. three days after the war began, we concluded it might last longer, leading to a 10%-15% correction, and warned that we could not rule out a bear market. “.. we've become concerned that a weakening US economy might exacerbate...
Food and Water Outrank AI and Chip Investments
Spending billions on the AI buildout and advanced semiconductors may take a backseat to food and water.
Subpoenas Target Powell, Not Crime, Says Boasberg
BOASBERG: “.. the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell .. “.. the Government has offered no evidence whatsoever that Powell committed any crime other than displeasing the President ..” https://t.co/3e71QOib61 https://t.co/X3riZGOYAB
Core PCE May Hit 3.4% YoY by Q2
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We think core #PCE could climb to 3.4% y/y by Q2, a striking implication of the hot PCE-relevant components that complicates the Fed’s policy path. We see upside risk to this estimate if the oil-price shock persists.”...
Prolonged Conflict Harms Everyone, Analyst Warns
EGAN-JONES: “.. We hope that our analysis is wrong. However, if we are correct, the longer the combatants are engaged, the worse it will be for all.” https://t.co/NM167brXUU
Regime Hardening Likely
B of A: “.. We now see ‘regime hard lining’ as likely as a quick end .. where military operations spill over into 2Q, 3Q or even 4Q26 ..” https://t.co/laJv8DdjWS
Iranian Official Warns Trump of Personal Elimination Risk
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) - A top Iranian security official tells Trump: 'Be careful not to get eliminated yourself.'
WSJ Labels Current Energy Crisis Worst Since 1970s
The @WSJ calls it “the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.” ⛽️ https://t.co/5whNTjsM5i https://t.co/r264LsvntD
YARDENI Raises Stagflation Risk, Cuts Meltup Forecast
YARDENI: “.. We can’t rule out a bear market if investors start to anticipate a Stagflating 1970s Redux scenario. .. We are lowering the ‘Meltup’ scenario from 20% to 5% and increasing the ‘Meltdown’ scenario (which now includes a 1970s-style...
Oil Prices Set to Drop, Fueling Roaring 2020s
YARDENI: “.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring...
Stock Plunge Erases 90% Market Value Amid Trump Crypto Flop
“.. a stock selloff that has wiped out almost 90% of the firm’s market value since the September high as the broader Trump digital-asset trade misfires.” @business https://t.co/abCpOHoz5E https://t.co/8xBLvDYzwC
Trump Quiet on $2,000 Tariff Rebate Checks
EVERCORE: “.. Trump has not emphasized the $2,000 ‘tariff rebate’ checks since earlier this year, suggesting that at least for now this has fallen off the agenda ..” 😔 https://t.co/EN0kaph84R
Goldman: Stock Suffers Third‑largest Century‑wide Daily Drop
“.. the stock’s 3rd largest single day drawdown this century (2nd was covid, 1st was dot com bubble.)” - Goldman desk
IEEPA Tariff Invalidated Threatens Existing Trade Deal Framework
JPMORGAN: “.. many trade deals negotiated to date have relied on IEEPA tariffs and have not yet been formalized as trade agreements. With the legal basis for these tariffs now invalidated, the fate of these deals is in question. These...