Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)

Israel's Escalating War in Lebanon: What's at Stake?

The CSIS round‑table examined the rapid escalation of hostilities in Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drone, missile and rocket attacks on Israel on March 1, following the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader. Israel responded with a coordinated campaign targeting southern Lebanon, Beirut’s central districts and infrastructure, turning the conflict into a second front in the broader Iran‑Israel confrontation and reigniting a decades‑long rivalry. Panelists highlighted the staggering humanitarian toll: more than 1,000 Lebanese killed, roughly 3,500 injured, and an estimated 1‑1.5 million people displaced from a population of five million. Israeli operations have expanded beyond military sites to strike Hezbollah’s financial arm, Al Qard al‑Hassan, and even civilian businesses linked to the group, while the Lebanese government struggles to provide shelter, schools and basic services. Paul Salem emphasized the scale of displacement, noting families sleeping on sidewalks and in cars, while Rhonda Sleem described a fractured Shia community—about 30 % hard‑line supporters, a small anti‑Hezbollah minority, and a large, wavering middle that questions the war’s necessity. David Schenker added anecdotal evidence of non‑Shia landlords refusing to rent to displaced Shia families, underscoring rising communal friction. The discussion warned that unchecked sectarian tension could spill into broader Lebanese conflict, threatening the fragile balance among Christians, Sunnis, Druze and Shia. Regionally, the war deepens the Iran‑Israel proxy struggle, risks further Israeli incursions, and complicates international humanitarian assistance, making the trajectory of Lebanon’s crisis a critical barometer for Middle‑East stability.