No New Pressures, Gas Prices Likely Stay Low
Well at least there’s nothing else going on that would drive the price of gas higher
Seeking Crypto Expert to Explain Tempo/MPP Mechanics
I would like a crypto person to DM me and explain how Tempo/MPP works (or is intended to work) for agentic stablecoin transactions.
Preserve Wealth Now, Embrace Sideways Consolidation Amid Uncertainty
If you’ve had a good run over the past 3 years there’s nothing wrong with being in wealth preservation mode now. Nothing goes up in a straight line, least of all your portfolio. Be okay with some sideways consolidation, no...
March 2022 Rally Shattered Downtrend, Defied Rate‑Hike Fears
The most recent genuinely vicious counter trend rally I recall was March 2022, SPX broke the YTD downtrend that had formed, reclaimed the 200 day moving average and then kept going for another week. Genuinely seemed like we had torn...
Reduced Longs, Market Rose; Dips Now Look Promising
I kind of knew the market would go lower when we posted that we reduced our longs by 30% when SPX was like 6800 and the next session when it went to 6830 we already had like ten people on...
Stocks Likely Decline as Fed Cuts Lose Market Support
I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual...
BWET Triples; New Iran Conflict Beta Watchlist Unveiled
Since our January 13th macro memo, our top weighted pick BWET has more than tripled (and seems set to go even higher). Today, we released to subscribers a new list of names that have yet to reprice as violently in...
Common Sense Beats Expert Advice in Oil Spread Trades
So much of this game is just trying your best not to learn the same lesson over and over again. The most recent re-learned lesson for me… common sense is nearly always a better foundation for a trade than expert wisdom...
SPX Goes 24/7 on Hyperliquid, Market Evolution
This is kind of a big deal. SPX officially trading 24/7 on hyperliquid. Markets are evolving.
AI Translates Medical Jargon, Boosts Cancer Advocacy
As some of you know, my dad has been fighting lung cancer for the past 2 years. If any of you have any experience with the medical system, you know that the family/patient have to be aggressive advocates. Doctors have...
Apollo Cut Software Exposure Early, Now a Top Buy
Worth pointing out that Apollo saw the writing on the wall much earlier than the market, and moved to reduce software exposure due to potential AI risks more than a year ago now. If I was buying the dip in these...
Soybean Oil-to-Bean Ratio Hits Record High Since 1974
Fun fact: Last Monday, the soybean oil/soybean ratio reached its highest level since futures began trading, with the exception of a couple weeks in June 1974.
Follow Josh for Priceless Fertilizer Market Insights
If you’re following the fertilizer stuff you need to follow Josh. His main thing is not speculation (actually performs a service for the world by helping farmers) but his ags market insights were invaluable to me during early 2022.
US Government's Crude Short Roughly $10 B Margin Equivalent
I currently estimate the notional size of the crude oil futures short the US government ends up putting on to be roughly whatever $10 billion in margin gets you. Attached tweet unrelated.
Turned 13% Short Spike Into 10% Long Gain
Caught a 13% move on the short and then 10% the long off the afternoon lows. Pretty good day, now time for bed.