Speculating Maduro's Ouster as Venezuela Insurance Against Iran
Is it feasible that Maduro was taken off the board to use Venezuela as some sort of insurance policy against attacking Iran leading to tighter oil supply or is that silly
Nighttime Oil Short, Tight Stop, Morning Reveal
Put on a cheeky little oil short with a tight stop before going to sleep let’s see what the morning has in store for me.
Free Cash Now to Seize Future Dip Opportunities
Just an fyi this was primarily a move to free up cash for the dip. You can’t consistently stay levered long if you want any chance to get a better entry by buying the dip. I don’t know if we...
Short Basket Surges 6% Amid 2026 Market Dispersion
On Liberation Day, we created a Long/Short basket (dollar neutral) meant to capitalize on any fears of stagflation due to Tariffs. That wasn’t our expectation, however. We wrote “The likely result…the administration declares victory, and most tariffs eventually come down...
Helium Concerns Overblown; Oil and JKM Drive Korean Stocks
This is very reminiscent of the “WDC is a zero because of neon gas shortage from Ukraine” episode. The impact of higher oil, or more importantly JKM prices, for Korean equities is a real discussion. This helium stuff is not though.
Markets Silence Geopolitics Until Crisis Strikes
I originally published this financial history article in January 2023, but its core point about how markets have a habit of treating geopolitical risk as background noise right up until the moment it’s not seems relevant again. https://t.co/KjyIjzqpnb
Oil Ripping Signals Imminent End of Cycle
It gets harder to do this when oil starts ripping. Has historically been a “the cycle is close to being over” signal
Equities Show Less Volatility Than Commodities
Certainly less of a "shit yourself due to volatility" vibe to the equity basket than the commodity so far. https://t.co/jjg4da39Sf
Productivity Gains Masked by ‘Ghost GDP’ Distribution Gap
This is the last point I will make regarding the piece, as I am really glad to see that name calling has resolved to constructive discussion and a genuine exchange of thoughtful commentary like that offered by Professor Damodaran. If you’re...
V‑shaped Rebound Likely, but Deleveraging Extends Beyond One Day
Rooting for the immediate v shaped recovery in KOSPI/Nikkei but, in my experience, violent deleveraging events are seldom limited to a single session. Held off on any aggressive dip buying today.
Crude Price Threshold Needed for S&P 500 Rally
What level does crude have to trade below for SPX to go green on the day
Wall Street's Outrage over Bear Case Proved Bullish Signal
In hindsight, the entire financial establishment being upset at us alluding to the mere existence of a bear case probably was not the most bullish thing that’s happened this year and maybe had some signal value as to positioning.
2022 Traders Rediscovered JKM‑Equity Link Amid Gas Surge
Everyone that traded during 2022 just collectively remembered the relationship between JKM and Japanese/Korean Equities that we all forgot when natural gas prices were calm.
Upcoming Trade Gains Interest per Jan 13 Macro Memo
Here’s what we wrote in our last macro memo on January 13th, should become a much more interesting trade over the coming weeks: https://t.co/iqiIN2DGsB
Tech Revolutions Cycle: Bubbles, Crashes, Inclusive Deployment Needed
If you want to read a piece that lays out the best bull/base case scenario, you should go read “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” by Perez. The book argues that every technological advancement follows the same framework as it relates to...
AI Thrives While Economy Crumbles in 2028
JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened? https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS
Korea Call Delivers Near‑double EWY Gains Since August
Since our bullish call on Korea last August… EWY +99.27% SPY +7.78% Money counting time. https://t.co/EKTw9HANNh
Buffett’s Japanese Bond Move: Short Yen, Long Equities
The best macro trade of the past 5 years was Warren buffet’s Japanese bond issuance imo. Got him short the currency, short rates all while he was long the equities (trading houses).
SOLS: Cheap US Uranium Conversion Monopoly Amid Global Shortage
Thread(1/2) 🧵 We put our SOLS long thesis above the paywall in our Atoms vs. Bits primer yesterday, so I’m also going to summarize for all you degenerates on X. The story is simple: the uranium trade has resulted in nearly every...