CJ Gustafson

CJ Gustafson

Creator
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I tweet about financial metrics and business models | Startup CFO | Opinions are my own, not investment advice

Series B Bar Rises: Vertical SaaS Outlook 2025‑26
SocialJan 9, 2026

Series B Bar Rises: Vertical SaaS Outlook 2025‑26

Are you a company looking to raise their Series B? I spoke to the king of the category, Jason Kong from Base10 Partners . Every day he wakes up and works with founders in this zone, which straddles traditional venture...

By CJ Gustafson
Storytelling Powers Finance Leadership in Modern SaaS
SocialJan 7, 2026

Storytelling Powers Finance Leadership in Modern SaaS

Storytelling is often an underappreciated strength of a great finance leader, and Samsara 's Dominic Phillips is one of the best. Tune in to tomorrow's Run The Numbers to hear some bangers and learn more about building a durable finance...

By CJ Gustafson
Inflated ARR Misleads Investors and Cash Flow
SocialJan 6, 2026

Inflated ARR Misleads Investors and Cash Flow

An issue I’m seeing pop up with new AI companies - they pay reps on “ARR” that’s really a series of three month pilot deals. The rep sells something for $3K and they call it $12K in ARR. Oh, and...

By CJ Gustafson
AI & Space IPOs Set to Shatter Fee Benchmarks
SocialJan 4, 2026

AI & Space IPOs Set to Shatter Fee Benchmarks

Wow, here's an estimate of what investment banks made from IPO fees in 2025 2026 will blow these (already large) numbers away if OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic hit the public markets (Someone tell the manager at Porsche of Greenwich to...

By CJ Gustafson
From CFO to Creator: Building Mostly Media
SocialDec 19, 2025

From CFO to Creator: Building Mostly Media

The tables have turned... my friend and fellow creator Paul Stansik at ParkerGale Capital interviewed me on my business. How did I go from CFO to guy who creates stuff online? And is it worth it? We cover the origins...

By CJ Gustafson
CFO Insights Signal Accelerating Finance Stack Growth
SocialDec 18, 2025

CFO Insights Signal Accelerating Finance Stack Growth

When the CFOs speak, I listen - gotta love real talk from the people actually building modern finance stacks. Here's a supercut from a year's worth of insights on Run the Numbers, with special shoutout to Brex . I expect...

By CJ Gustafson
Winning Mindset: Growth Equity Meets Marathon Drive
SocialDec 17, 2025

Winning Mindset: Growth Equity Meets Marathon Drive

What do growth equity and the NYC Marathon have in common? JMI Equity 's own Larry Contrella proves it takes the same innate drive and competitive streak to succeed at either. Tune in to tomorrow's Run the Numbers to learn...

By CJ Gustafson
Bigger Firms Should Accept Lower Annual Dilution Rates
SocialDec 14, 2025

Bigger Firms Should Accept Lower Annual Dilution Rates

Run rate dilution by company size As you get bigger, the benchmark for appropriate dilution each year, after contemplating SBC, M&A, buybacks, and everything else, should grind downward. https://t.co/Dmjoe6M5qo

By CJ Gustafson
Home Buying Lessons Transform B2B Tech Strategies
SocialDec 14, 2025

Home Buying Lessons Transform B2B Tech Strategies

"You can leave Salesforce, but you can't leave your mortgage." What can the home buying experience teach us about B2B tech? Turns out, a ton. My interview with Brian Brown CFO at Rocket drops tomorrow morning. It's a look into...

By CJ Gustafson
Rule of 40: No One‑Size‑Fit Metric, Choose Wisely
SocialDec 9, 2025

Rule of 40: No One‑Size‑Fit Metric, Choose Wisely

I’m going to be straight with you. I don’t know the “right” way to calculate Rule of 40. I’m a metrics sensei by many standards, but this one sparks religious debates with CFOs, FP&A directors, and VC friends across stages....

By CJ Gustafson
Why NPS Lies: Fire Bad Customers, Fix Retention
SocialDec 7, 2025

Why NPS Lies: Fire Bad Customers, Fix Retention

"When I arrived, our NPS was negative 26..." Get your popcorn ready, because my podcast with Cassie Young drops tomorrow. She's one of the brightest GTM minds in the game. Cassie has lived the entire go-to-market lifecycle... from CRO to...

By CJ Gustafson
Prism Brings Real‑Time ARR, Burn Rate, Churn to ERP
SocialDec 4, 2025

Prism Brings Real‑Time ARR, Burn Rate, Churn to ERP

If you told me five years ago that I could see my ARR, Burn Rate, and Churn in an ERP, I would have told you to go back to bed. Sounds like fiction. It's all possible now with Prism. CONGRATS...

By CJ Gustafson
CoreWeave's 134% Growth Redefines AI Infrastructure Scaling
SocialDec 3, 2025

CoreWeave's 134% Growth Redefines AI Infrastructure Scaling

CoreWeave might be the most interesting company in the public markets right now. They’re growing 134% quarter-over-quarter - an absolutely insane rate - and rewriting the playbook for scaling a multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure business. Tomorrow, my interview with their CFO...

By CJ Gustafson
Annualizing Prediction Market Revenue Misleads: It's Not Recurring
SocialDec 3, 2025

Annualizing Prediction Market Revenue Misleads: It's Not Recurring

You can just annualize anything these days, you guys… The latest “ARR” crime I’m seeing is in the prediction markets. When talking about the break neck growth of platforms like @Kalshi and @Polymarket , which let you “bet” on anything,...

By CJ Gustafson
Finite Markets Burn Quickly: Beware Exhausting Your Leads
SocialDec 2, 2025

Finite Markets Burn Quickly: Beware Exhausting Your Leads

I was talking with a CFO last week who had what most GTM leaders would kill for: a perfectly defined market. Their company sells software to independent financial advisors. Not the ones at Merrill or Goldman... the 76,000 registered with...

By CJ Gustafson
Stay Resilient—Download the Latest Private Company Benchmarks
SocialNov 25, 2025

Stay Resilient—Download the Latest Private Company Benchmarks

Keep on keeping on (and download the new private company benchmarks): https://t.co/TzlGYFvqPm

By CJ Gustafson
Growth Slows: Even $50M+ Firms Hit 17%
SocialNov 25, 2025

Growth Slows: Even $50M+ Firms Hit 17%

We’re seeing a structural reset: growth is simply harder now. Even $50M+ companies are growing at 17%, and public SaaS is stuck at 13%.

By CJ Gustafson
40%+ Growth Is Rare; SaaS Growth Slows Significantly
SocialNov 25, 2025

40%+ Growth Is Rare; SaaS Growth Slows Significantly

I don't know who needs to hear this today... But if you're growing more than 40%... you're CRUSHING IT! I know we only hear about companies obliterating land and speed records, but the reality is most SaaS companies are lucky...

By CJ Gustafson
What It Takes for OpenAI to Reach $500B
SocialNov 24, 2025

What It Takes for OpenAI to Reach $500B

A spicy thought experiment: What would OpenAI have to do to hit $500 billion in annual revenue within the next five years? https://t.co/jxxTIIIqgC https://t.co/blAVz6cHUP

By CJ Gustafson
Revenue Soars While Headcount Growth Stalls
SocialNov 20, 2025

Revenue Soars While Headcount Growth Stalls

Headcount growth has hit the brakes... In our latest *private* company benchmarks report, we're seeing median headcount growth of just 3–5% vs. revenue growth of ~20–25%. Sub-$25M ARR companies might not be *firing* employees, but they’re certainly in “one-in, one-out”...

By CJ Gustafson
2025 Day‑One IPOs: A Pure Crapshoot
SocialNov 19, 2025

2025 Day‑One IPOs: A Pure Crapshoot

Day 1 IPO “pops” in 2025: TL;DR: it’s a crapshoot https://t.co/rz9g4aNIjw

By CJ Gustafson
2025 IPO Pricing: Unpredictable, No Clear Pattern
SocialNov 18, 2025

2025 IPO Pricing: Unpredictable, No Clear Pattern

Why the Hell Is It So Hard to Price an IPO in 2025? In 2025, day one IPO performance feels like a total crapshoot. Figma went parabolic (but now sits at the failed Adobe acquisition price), CoreWeave was flat out...

By CJ Gustafson
Even Disney+ Struggled: Forecasting New Brands Is Guesswork
SocialNov 17, 2025

Even Disney+ Struggled: Forecasting New Brands Is Guesswork

5 learnings from launching (and attempting to forecast) Disney+ ... Forecasting a brand-new product, even one with Disney's IP library behind it, is a leap off a cliff. As Vanna Krantz , former CFO of Disney Streaming, told me: “We...

By CJ Gustafson
AI-Enabled Finance: Mapping Vendors and the Messy Middle
SocialNov 11, 2025

AI-Enabled Finance: Mapping Vendors and the Messy Middle

It's (finally) here: I’ve emerged from the wilderness with a 59 page report, a herniated disc, and a better understanding of AI's impact on finance. I’m proud to present to you our most comprehensive report yet. What follows is a...

By CJ Gustafson
Startups Funding Peers: Warning Sign of a Bubble
SocialOct 19, 2025

Startups Funding Peers: Warning Sign of a Bubble

Startups investing in other startups... is this peak bubble behavior? https://t.co/1paenKbhQh

By CJ Gustafson