Ken's Data Lacks Conviction, Misleads on Fuel‑Driven Rates
Your reminder than Ken has such little conviction using DAT's data that he wouldn't take a $5k bet, but expects you to bet millions using his data and analysis. He can throw shade all he wants, but doesn't have conviction in his own view of the market.
Southern California Tender Rejections Hit 2022 Highs, Signaling Bullish Outlook
Tender rejection rates out of Southern California have surpassed 2022 levels, the start of the Great Freight Recession. This is extremely bullish because volumes are at their softest levels out of LA we will see all year, as S Cal...
Bullish Freight Market Forces Shippers to Accept Higher Rates
The freight market is growing more bullish as we head into one of the busiest parts of the trucking calendar. And we are starting to see the West Coast pull up. Shippers that refuse higher rates risk having trucks not...
Freight Broker Roles: Notoriously Hard to Explain Outside Trucking
Trying to explain the role of a freight broker to anyone outside the trucking industry is…. Challenging.
Aviation English: Mandatory for Every Pilot Worldwide
English is the official language of aviation. Every pilot, globally, is supposed to have a working knowledge of aviation English.
Compliance Crackdown Shrinks Capacity, Tightening Freight Market
I am convinced there are just some folks in freight that just want truckers to suffer more. They will tell you that the compliance developments won’t be impactful. Then the market tightens. You ask them if it’s volume, they say...
ATA’s Endorsement Signals Crucial Congressional Influence
We are all critical of the ATA, but having the organization endorse this law is very important. The ATA is a very important lobbyist group that has an outsized influence on Congress. They are on the right side of history...
Dalilah’s Law Cuts CDL Grace Period, Boosts Truckload
Dalilah’s law is a massive pivot from the FMCSA rule. It would mandate that current non-domiciled CDLs are banned 1 year out from the enactment date. The FMCSA offered 5 years. If this passes, go long truckload.
Dalilah's Law Bans Non‑Domiciled CDL Drivers, Limits Foreign Brokers
Not only will Dalilah's law permanently eliminate non-domiciled CDLs, it will also restrict foreign dispatchers and freight brokers https://t.co/zQYNP3Ja4g
Rising Oil Prices Spur Medium‑Term Freight Demand
Citi: High oil prices will drive additional freight demand "North American production boosting freight demand over the medium-term." https://t.co/nzbc3PYiKa
DOT Reforms Spark Permanent Trucking Super‑cycle, Boosting Truckload Assets
This would make the efforts by the DOT permanent and set off a trucking super cycle Truckload carriers would be one of the most investible asset-classes
Spot Rates Outpace Fuel Costs by $0.28 per Mile
Trucking spot market over 6 months. Trucking spot rates are up $.50/mile, while fuel up $.22/mile during that period https://t.co/c9g69l8Rkr
New SONAR Index Reveals Truckers' Diesel Cost per Mile
New index inside of SONAR: The cost of diesel per mile for truckers. MPG.USA uses 7 miles per gallon to calculate the cost of fuel for truckers. https://t.co/N8r6Tx66IO
Dalilah’s Law Set to Pass, Avoids Controversial Add‑Ons
Dalilah’s law is up for committee hearing tomorrow. In its current form, it should pass. There has been some temptation to expand the law to include some issues that many drivers would revolt over: such as tracking chips in trucks and...
LA Rebounds as Post‑CNY Port Volumes Surge
LA is coming back strong from weak conditions earlier this year. As port volumes return from Chinese New Year, we could see a resurgence of momentum.
Trucking Firms Self‑recover Stolen Loads; Police Ineffective
Large trucking companies often run their own processes to recover stolen truckloads. The authorities are almost useless in recovering stolen cargo.
War Historically Boosts Freight Demand, Not Economic Collapse
There are a large number of accounts here that have an issue with the war and want the economy to crash because of it. We have yet to find an American war that didn’t drive more freight demand. I don’t make the...
Strangers Secure Million-Dollar Deals; Friends Struggle with $5k
This is absolutely insane. It’s easier to book a million dollar truckload with someone you don’t know than it is to wire 5000 to someone you do.
Freight Data Signals Ongoing Industrial Rally Amid War Recovery
Industrial production up. The high frequency freight data suggests this rally will continue and it appears to be shaking off the Iran war and high fuel prices
Truck Driver Shortage Myth Used to Push Deregulation
There never was a truck driver shortage. This was a narrative told to Congress to lower the barriers to entry and to fund tax-paid driving schools. It’s always been a lie.
Truckers Will Keep Jobs without Long‑haul Driving
Good point, they aren’t going to be out of work, even if they don’t drive long haul
Rising Fuel Costs Boost Big Carriers, Not Hurt Them
Wall Street investors have concluded that spiking oil prices will hurt truckers. It’s not that simple. In fact, the big carriers and brokers often make more money during periods of high fuel prices.
Flatbed Surge Predates Iran Conflict, Tied to Rust‑belt Demand
The surge in flatbeds predated the Iran conflict. I spoke about this at length in early February. The locations of the surge match up to the rust belt, auto, and heavy machinery. No one is moving oil field equipment off of...
Immigrant CDL Holders Get 5‑Year Grace Before Citizenship Requirement
This article is misleading. Non-domiciled Immigrants that have current active licenses are given either a 5-year grace period or expiration date of their current CDL (which ever comes first). In that time, if an immigrant wants to continue truck driving,...
Freight Market Stable, Contract Rates Rising, Panic Unfounded
Trucking spot rates are incredibly stable right now. Contract freight rates are still moving up. Tender volumes moving up. Tender rejections stable. The doomsday folks selling panic in freight markets are not looking at the data. https://t.co/R8VVxcYhOv
30% of AI Model Power Still Fossil‑fuel Driven
Wait until he finds out that 30% of the energy that drives his models are fed by fossil fuels
Trucking Volumes Rise, Showing Oil Spikes Aren’t Slowing Economy
No sign that oil spikes are hurting the domestic economy. Trucking volumes continue to accelerate. +8% YoY and has now cleared 2024 comps. Despite the noise, the signal coming from freight is that activity in the domestic goods economy is...
Midwest Tight, West Coast Weak: Carriers Stay Put
Carriers should stay in the Midwest, where the conditions are extremely tight, while the West Coast remains weak
Self‑Certification of Truck Schools Is a Government Failure
“Wipe the whole thing and start all over.” In reference to the self-certification of truck driver schools. It’s one of the most ludicrous things that the government has ever done in trucking and that is saying a lot.
Truck Capacity Is a Commodity; Drivers Are the Bottleneck
A decade ago, a CFO of a mega fleet told me I knew nothing about the industry because I called trucking a commodity. Commodities are priced based on supply and demand and truckload services are fungible between motor carriers - I.e....
Truck Driver Glut Persists, Not Shortage, Says Industry
I am looking forward to the day when the ATA publishes a new report showing how many excess truck drivers the industry has. We have a glut, not a shortage.
Trucking's Sweet Spot: Strong Demand, Limited Overcapacity
Trucking is in a great spot right now. We don’t know what the escalation in Iran or surging oil markets will do to the momentum, but for now, this is a trucker’s market. In some ways, slower momentum may be better in...
Autonomous Cars Will Turn 40% Parking Into City Parks
40% of urban real estate is dedicated to parking. This will soon change with the introduction of autonomous cars. Cities will be reimagined and redeveloped. New open spaces with downtown parks, playgrounds, shopping, and living will replace the majority of parking...
Exposing Freight Fraud: Real Stories of Theft
Newest FW show: Fraud Watch We will cover the crazy stories of theft and fraud that have become so pervasive in freight
Discussing the State of Freight on NewsNation
Will be on NewsNation - the Hill on 15 minutes to talk about the State of Freight
Low Inventory, High Turn Boost Freight Demand Outlook
The LMI is signaling low inventory, high turn retail supply chains. This bodes extremely well for freight carriers, as it means that we will either see: more inventory build in supply chains with slower turns (good for carriers) or a...
Future of Rail: C‑Suite Leaders Shape Next Decade
Trains is hosting its first in-person B2B event about the Future of Rail: The next decade in Chattanooga on July 28, 2026. We are working on an unbelievable lineup of C-suite speakers and senior leaders to discuss the future of...
Oil Price Spike Won’t Slash Consumer Goods Volume
We've been looking at scenarios on the total volume of goods pumped through the economy, based on current geopolitical developments: Our general view is that the impact of high oil prices isn't as dramatic as one would initially fear in...
Higher Fuel Costs Crush Carrier Margins, Boost Brokers
I agree with this analysis. The gross spot rate that brokers are paying is stable, but the calculated net minus fuel (i.e. carrier margins) is getting crushed due to the surge of fuel prices. Paradoxically, higher fuel costs are...
Flatbed Rates Surge While Reefer Cools, Van Stays Steady
Spot rate momentum is currently mode-specific: Reefer (slight cooling) - seasonality factors Van- stable Flatbed - very strong https://t.co/1SCZy23TF9
Flatbed Rates Surge Nationwide After Regional Spike
Flatbed rates continue to firm across the US. A few weeks ago, we saw the rate pops concentrated to the rust belt and Texas. Now we are seeing sharp flatbed rate increases take over most of the country. Map: shows...
US Navy Limits Signal Global Trade’s Fragile Future
We are witnessing the end of globalization If the US military with the massive armada assembled within 500 miles can’t protect ships in this region, we stand little chance of protecting our container shipments from Asia in the event of a...
Crackdown Clears Riff‑Raff, Qualified Truckers Return
Nature is healing. Qualified and compliant truck driver applicants are starting to increase substantially as the government crackdown happens. Proof that if you get rid of the riff-raff, the good guys will come back.
Shipping Execs Unprepared for Upcoming Carrier Market Revenge
This is true. A lot of the shipping and procurement execs have never lived through a carrier's market and are unprepared for Carrier Revenge.
West Coast Port Volume Set to Rebound Late March
The West Coast isn’t participating in the tight trucking market, as Chinese New Years was a few weeks later this year. Last year, we had pull forward of imports. We are roughly where we were in 2024. We should do a return of...
Choosing a Second Option Adds $800 per Load
It’s always good to get a second options Especially when you can make +$800 more on a load
Flatbed Spot Rates Surge; Reefer, Van Stabilize Near Peaks
Flatbed spot rates continue to surge with no sign of slowing, while reefer and van catch their breath near cycle highs https://t.co/NAcnZUr2rv
Diesel Prices Jump yet Remain Below COVID Highs
Diesel prices have surged, but still far lower than the peaks set during COVID https://t.co/WJoutp3QcO
Angry Ambulance Chaser Called Out as Societal Leech
Ambulance chaser getting angry because I called them out for being what they are: leaches to society
Flatbed Rejection Hits Record 48.74%, Boosting Industry
Flatbed rejection rates go hyperbolic, at 48.74%, a new all time high. This is a sign of further strengthening of the industrial economy. https://t.co/PTalyYhFiO