US to Field 2,400 F‑35s, Becoming Fourth‑largest Air Force
The US is planning to build up a fleet of 2400 F-35s, which would make it the 4th largest global air force alone. https://t.co/YAnXK2vCUQ
Rising Fuel Costs Push Small Truckers Toward Bankruptcy
Whenever fuel surges like it has, we see a rash of small carrier bankruptcies. Large fleets and big brokers benefit from high fuel prices due to fuel surcharges, smaller truckers get creamed.
Freight Fraud Takes Center Stage at Rock Hall
Nothing says freight fraud like Rock n Roll. So we are going to the Rock n Roll hall of fame in Cleveland, Ohio on May 20th to discuss the surge of cargo crime and freight fraud. Join us! https://t.co/cwOH4KCcUw
Railroads Target Trucking Share Amid Tight Capacity
Railroads wanting to win back share from trucking. May explain why intermodal rates haven't moved off the floor, while truckload rates surge. https://t.co/3TM3rE2uEI
Flatbed Slowdown, Van and Reefer Volumes Rebound
Slight change in direction. Flatbed volumes momentum slowing a tad bit, while van and reefer are starting to wake up again after pausing growth over past 10 days. https://t.co/bpYDZEvodV
Outbound Tender Rejections Near Cycle High at 14.12%
Outbound tender rejection rates trying to make a new high. +32 bps overnight. At 14.12%, the cycle high was 14.16%. https://t.co/mdeQcfAsvu
Diesel Costs Rise $0.40/gal, Adding $0.06 per Mile
Diesel prices keep surging +$.40/gallon since start of the conflict That is roughly $.06/mile https://t.co/U2lHk2MBhe
Supply Chains Shifting Back to Americas, Leaving Middle East, Asia
This is a predictable trend and highlights the importance of companies moving supply chains back to the Americas. Middle East today, Asia tomorrow.
Analysts Keep Downplaying Momentum, Repeating Past Mistakes
I am very confused why they keep downplaying the momentum. They did the same thing in 2020 during the early days of the COVID recovery and were slow to recognize the freight recession in 2022.
Trade Trucking Stocks by Timing the Freight Cycle
A lot of X folks that no knowing about the freight cycle simply look at PE ratios in trucking and assume that trucking stocks are way overvalued, but have zero clue how the freight cycle works. When the freight market...
UP‑NS Merger's 2 M Truckload Claim Is Negligible
Union Pacific claims that’s its merger with NS would take 2m truckloads off the road each year. That is approx 6k trucks in total, roughly equivalent to Prime’s fleet. Pretty inconsequential in the big scheme of things.
SONAR Data Reveals Booming Industrial Demand Surge
SONAR has been signaling a manufacturing renaissance since November. Despite a lot of pushback I’ve received over past couple of months, it’s all in the high frequency freight data. Industrial demand is popping.
High‑frequency Freight Data Reveals SONAR’s Real‑time Signals
Not a prediction. I just monitor SONAR’s signals. It’s all in the high frequency freight data
New SONAR Dashboard Tracks Surging Diesel and Oil Prices
In light of the surge in diesel and oil prices overnight, we have added a new fuel dashboard in SONAR. https://t.co/cAWkSzmzsr
Industrial Economy Gains Momentum, War Boosts Manufacturing
ISM and flatbed freight data are showing the same thing: the industrial economy is starting to ramp up. The war in Iran will also drive more strength in manufacturing, as military related manufacturing is approx 8% of all US domestic...
Nationwide Tightening Persists; only Atlanta Shows Loosening
As we roll into March, we continue to see signs that the tightening trend has legs. Blue markets = tightening momentum Orange markets = loosening momentum Atlanta is the only major market in the US that is experiencing a...
Class 8 Truck Orders Jump 159% as Fleets Trust Recovery
Class 8 (“semis”) truck orders surged 159% YoY as fleets gain confidence in recovery https://t.co/hmyEmcDtbU
Industry Events Spark Unexpectedly Bullish Channel Outlook
We had teams at multiple industry events this week. Our channel checks came back far more bullish than expected.
Flatbed Haul Length Hits Record Low Amid Rising Demand
Flatbed length of haul is shrinking and currently at the lowest levels we’ve ever seen. This is despite the fact that demand continues to surge. We believe this is because flatbed demand increases are in the rust belt and tied...
Intermodal Rail Slashes Shipper Costs by 25%
Shippers that route freight by intermodal rail versus trucking are saving more than they have since 2022, approx 25% https://t.co/Xrb8PprDhI
Freight Rates Set for Fastest Rise Since 2022
The LMI, a survey of 400+ shipper executives, affirms that freight rates should see substantial increases in coming months as transportation capacity remains tight and should tighten further. “Transportation prices are expected to significantly expand over the next 12 months, with...
DAT's Models Fail in Tight Market, Choose SONAR
Maybe if Ken wasn't so out of touch with the market, he would realize that DAT's models aren't working in a tightening market. His clients see it, he doesn't. When your data models rely strictly on the spot market and...
Stop Guessing Freight Prices—Use SONAR for Real‑Time Insight
Our SONAR team just did a one-call close with a Fortune 500 shipper that had DAT because they aren't getting answers on what is happening in real-time in the freight market and feel left astray. Don't guess with DAT. Know...
Driver Shortage Myth Fuels Broker Rise, Small Fleet Surge
The truck driver shortage lie has been around for decades. The fleet execs that pushed for it bever imagined that freight brokers would gain such a significant footing and drivers would bypass large fleets and join the smallest.
UPS Drivers Skew BLS Wage Data, Ignoring Small Fleets
Mr Spear’s argument about truck driver pay going up during the truck driver shortage is flawed. He fails to mention that the BLS survey picks up UPS truck drivers, which received the largest bump in pay in their history and make...
ATA Admits Truck Driver Shortage Narrative Was Flawed
The ATA's Chief Economist has suddenly reversed course on the truck driver shortage after their member fleets realized how damaging this narrative was to their own interests. The ATA has attacked me and accused me of "peddling narratives" to drive...
ATA's Driver Shortage Stance Reveals Capture Gone Awry
The ATA's position on the truck driver shortage has never made sense to me. After all, the whole goal of regulatory capture is to restrict new participants from joining the industry. Regulatory capture gone wrong.
Flatbed Truckloads Surge 61% on Manufacturing Demand
YoY truckload volumes, by mode: Flatbed +61% Reefer +17% Van +3% Flatbed volumes are at all time highs, led by manufacturing and heavy industry, not housing https://t.co/qst2cb1rhu
DAT’s Blind Spot Fuels Non‑Compliant Carrier Boom
The ability for non compliant motor carriers to thrive is directly related to activity that takes place on load boards. How can DAT, the largest load board in the country, not realize how pervasive the compliance crisis had become? It’s because they...
DAT's Warning on CDL Rules Proved Market Reality
Let’s hope that no one investing money in trucking stocks listened to DAT last summer when they consistently said that enforcement of English Language Proficiency and non-domiciled CDLs would have a negligible impact on the market.
SONAR Tender Rejections Predict Trucking Stock Moves
The connection is clear: Large trucking equities trade based on forward trucking market conditions and the best signal is SONAR's Tender Rejections Chart: SONAR Truckload Rejections vs. JB Hunt Stock Price https://t.co/R8Mc1l5UyF
Hedge Funds Flock to SONAR Amid Rising Tender Rejections
This SONAR chart: Outbound Tender Rejection Index (blue) vs. Knight-Swift stock price (yellow). There is a reason that hedge funds buy SONAR and it is our fastest growing cohort. https://t.co/erT8QvKIr6
Defense Production Outpaces Auto, Drives Truck Freight
US automotive production is $180B. US defense manufacturing is $220B. Don’t understimate the impact of defense production on American trucking freight.
Defense Manufacturing Tiny; Truckers Thriving Today
5% of US maufacturing is related to defense production. Today is a good day for truckers.
Driver Anonymity Fuels Organized Crime in Freight Networks
The issue is we literally have no idea who hundreds of thousands of truck drivers are due to the elimination of barriers to entry over the past decade. Organized crime is coordinating illicit activities against our freight networks every single day.
Intelligence Warns: Fill Tanks; Energy Sites Likely Terrorist Targets
Spoke with a senior intelligence official that recommended everyone top their tanks off, not due to a known threat, but the high probability that energy assets are prime targets for terrorists.
SONAR Surpasses DAT After Starting Under $1M ARR
SONAR did less than $1m in ARR five years ago, so we win this one by a mile despite DAT’s attempt to exploit their market share in load boards to prevent customers from working with competitive data offerings.
DAT's Load-to-Truck Ratio Skewed by Ghost Loads
Anyone that has used DAT knows that a signification portion of the postings are ghost loads, hence the reason that DAT’s load to truck ratio data is garbage.
Agentic AI Poised to Disrupt Load Board Industry
If you believe that DoorDash or MasterCard/Visa could be disrupted by agentic AI, then it’s inevitable that agentic AI could disrupt load boards. Who is building this? We will partner with you on data
DAT Prioritizes Load Board Over Data Services
You can tell that DAT was never meant to be a data company. Freight market data is secondary to the load board. That is their focus.
Higher Diesel Prices Boost Profits for Large Truck Fleets
A weird irony is that most mid and large trucking fleets make more money with higher diesel prices due to fuel surcharges.
English‑language Violations Ground 104 Trucks Daily, Record High
Trucks taken out of service for English Language violations just hit an all time high. 104 trucks per day. https://t.co/fTIcZIXxJi
Truck Deaths Outpace 9/11; We Must Identify Drivers
During September 11, 2700 Americans died. America implemented massive security procedures for aircraft, fought two wars, and spent trillions to ensure it would never happen again. We created massive surveillance and implemented identity tracking at airports to ensure we know...
Illinois Risk Pool Bleeds From Fraudulent Chameleon Carriers
The Illinois State risk pool is an insurer of last resort. Unfortunately, due to the massive amount of fraud coming from chameleon carriers and fleets with fabricated safety records, it is bleeding out. https://t.co/PttPnIgNtk
Key Industry Court Case Hearing Scheduled for Next Week
The hearing for one of the most important court cases in the industry is coming up next week
Free 30-Day Access to SONAR Freight Data for Comparison
I agree, I am unhinged. That is why I am giving SONAR's freight data for free for the next 30 days. Now users can compare SONAR's market data vs. DAT's to see which dataset reflects market conditions better. In the...
War Historically Fuels U.S. Trucking Demand
I was asked if a war with Iran would be bad for the trucking market. We looked at the data and have yet to find a single American military engagement in the past 50 years that didn’t stimulate goods movement across...
Illinois Trucking Fraud: State Insurers Allow Under‑insured Carriers
Trucking has become a cesspool of fraud - this time involving the State of Illinois and its insurance pool. Carriers are criminally under insured and the state agency is aware of it. Often, they will own many trucks and only...
Midwest Freight Surge Signals Major Shift From Coastal Decline
Freight from the midwest and rustbelt have been on fire, while the coastal cities have been very quiet. SONAR has been picking this up for the past two months - and it is a massive shift from the freight economy...
Early KNX Investors Would See 50% Gains, Attracting Hedge Funds
If you had bought KNX when we first started to talk about the freight market movement due to the compliance crackdown, you’d be up 50%. That is why SONAR’s fastest growing clients are financial firms and hedge funds. https://t.co/nW6G2BWC6n
