DailyChartBook
Curator sharing momentum/TA insights and JC Parets commentary with tactical regime notes and levels.
Affordable U.S. Home Listings Rise to One-Third
"One-third (32.9%) of U.S. home listings were affordable to someone earning the median income in April, up from 28.7% a year earlier." -Redfin
Speculators Hold Deepest Short Positions in US Futures Since April 2023
The latest CoT data shows speculators are short equity futures across the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 (most net short since Apr'23), S&P 400, and Russell 2000. via Bespoke
Respect Overbought Levels, But Not Yet Bearish
"Overbought conditions deserve respect, particularly after such a powerful run from the March lows. But overbought does not automatically mean bearish. Bearish price action occurs when bullish patterns start to fail; so far, that has yet to happen." Frank Cappelleri, CappNotes
Equity Allocation Peaks at Five-Year High, Biggest Shift Since 2020
"Equity allocation just hit its highest level in five years. April marked the biggest monthly shift since November 2020" State Street via Macro Ops
S&P Hits Record as 5% of Stocks Plunge
"Look, I know none of this stuff matters anymore. But my G*d. This will be the 4th time the S&P 500 $SPY has hit a record high while 5% of its members fall to 52-week lows. 1. July 1929, 2....
Active US Equity Exposure Hits Highest Since January
Active manager exposure to US equities continues to creep higher, now at its highest since the first week of January.
Hyperscalers' Cash Flow to Plunge 70% by 2026
"Wall Street projects hyperscalers’ free cash flow to fall by over 70% from its peak by the end of 2026, even as earnings keep climbing" BCA Research via John Authers, BBG
Same‑store Sales Hit 4‑year High at 7.8% YoY
Same-store retail sales grew 7.8% YoY in the week ending May 2 (7.7% prev), a fresh +4-year high.
S&P 500 up 12% yet 6% Cheaper This Year
Despite it's +12% gain, the S&P 500 has gotten 6% cheaper this year. via Duality Research
Crypto Hedge Funds Double Quantum Risk Concern to 40%
Crypto hedge funds: "the share placing quantum risk within two to five years has nearly doubled, surging from roughly a quarter to over two in five and becoming the clear modal response." Crypto Insights Group via FactSet
S&P 500 Q1 EPS Jumps 27.1%, Strongest Since 2021
With 63% of the S&P 500 reported, the blended YoY EPS growth rate for Q1 is 27.1% which would mark the strongest growth since Q4'21. via FactSet
Homeownership Falls Below 25‑Year Average at 65.
"The latest homeownership rate declined to 65.3% in the first quarter of 2026 ... Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004, the homeownership rate is currently 3.9 percentage points lower and remains below the 25-year average rate of 66.3%." -NAHB
Households Shift to Short-Term Bonds After 2024 Rate Cuts
"Since the Fed started cutting interest rates in 2024, households have been buying the front end of the yield curve and selling the long end" -Apollo Slok
Utilities Show Strong Bubble Exhaustion, Tech Remains Calm
"Despite the semi/dot com bubble headlines, we aren't seeing that many LPPL exhaustion signals in Information Technology yet ... Instead, Utilities are flashing the most aggressive bubble exhaustion signals at present." -Variant Perception
Goldman Sachs Hikes Oil Forecasts Amid Hormuz Shutdown
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted oil-price forecasts as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz spurs 'extreme' inventory draws." -BBG