DailyChartBook
Curator sharing momentum/TA insights and JC Parets commentary with tactical regime notes and levels.
Same‑store Sales Hit YTD High, up 7.6% YoY
Same-store retail sales rose by YTD high 7.6% YoY for the week ending Apr 4 (6.9% prev).
Broadening Forward Earnings Signal Bullish Market Momentum
"S&P 500 forward earnings continues to rise rapidly, while S&P 400 and S&P 600 forward earnings are also moving higher. The broadening breadth of forward earnings in recent months is a bullish development." -Yardeni
Direct Lending Is Just 3% of US Debt, Mortgages Dominate
"The direct lending market is roughly $2 trillion, or about 3% of total debt outstanding for US households and businesses. By comparison, mortgages accounted for about 60% of total household and corporate debt at the peak of the housing bubble...
Nasdaq 100 P/E Drops 23%, Russell 2000 Lags
"The Nasdaq 100’s forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) has compressed by 23% since the highs at the end of October, while the Russell 2000 P/E has only compressed by 9%." -Liz Thomas, SoFi
Hedge Funds Dump Global Stocks at 13‑Year High
"Hedge funds sold global stocks at the fastest pace in 13 years in March ... The pace of selling was the second-largest since [Goldman] started collecting the data in 2011." Goldman Sachs via BBG
Close‑to‑open Trades Outpace Buy
"Buy and hold has seen a drop of roughly 5% for the S&P over the last six months. Had you only owned the market after hours by buying at the close every day and selling at the next open,...
RSM US Financial Conditions Index Turns Negative, Slight Growth Drag
"Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index, which has been decelerating since early February, has turned negative, implying a modest drag on growth." -Joe Brusuelas, RSM
Gold ETFs Face Fourth Straight Week of $4bn Outflows
"It's now four consecutive weeks of outflows for gold ETFs - they saw net outflows of US$4bn (~34 tonnes) last week. That's the fourth consecutive weeks of outflows. All regions saw losses, lead by Asia and North America." -Krishan Gopaul, World...
Options Signal Over 3.4% One‑Week SPX Move
"Despite the shortened week, the options market is implying over a 3.4% move for SPX. Not quite as extreme as we saw last year, but still one of the largest 1-week implied moves we have had over the last five...
Profits Rise While S&P Prices Drop: Look Past Pain
"The profit outlook for S&P 500 companies has been improving even as share prices have fallen - a dynamic rarely seen during episodes of geopolitical uncertainty ... The setup has historically rewarded investors willing to look through near-term pain." -Bloomberg
Feb Home-Sale Contracts Fail at Record 13.7%
"More than 42,000 U.S. home-sale agreements fell through in February, equal to 13.7% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 12.8% a year earlier, and the highest February share in records dating back to 2017." -Redfin
Education and Health Drive Over 100% Private‑Sector Job Growth
The education and health services sector has accounted for 109% of private-sector job creation since January 2025. via ADP
Market Prices Over One Std Below Long‑Term Trend
"When we map recent developments onto our Valuation vs Profitability framework, we can see that the market is now trading more than one standard deviation below its long-term trend." -Duality Research
Household Real Estate Value Drops to $47.9 T
"The market value of household real estate assets fell for the second consecutive quarter to $47.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025" -NAHB
S&P 500 Forward P/E Falls to 20.3
"The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.3. (down 2.8pts from the high... the market multiple hits correction territory)" -Mike Zaccardi
Rising Junk‑Bond/Treasury Gap Threatens Stock Bulls
"A big distribution pattern is carving out in the Junk Bonds vs. Treasuries ratio. A breakdown here would be the last thing stock market bulls want to see." -Alfonso De Pablos, All Star Charts
ARMs Offer $150 Monthly Savings, Biggest Discount Since 2022
"The typical homebuyer would save $150 per month taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage instead of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. That’s a 5.8% discount, the biggest ARM users have had since June 2022 in both dollar and percentage terms." -Redfin
February Home Sales Slowest Since 2016, 66-Day Average
"U.S. homebuyers are taking their time as we head into spring, which is usually the busy season for the housing market. The typical home that went under contract in February spent 66 days on the market. That’s the slowest February...
Operation Fury Costs $16.5B in 12 Days, $1B Daily Thereafter
Operation Fury: "In the first 12 days, the estimated cost was $16.5 billion and some have said that the cost going forward could be $1 billion per day." -Charlie Bilello
Full Rate Cut Postponed Until March 2027.
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
US‑Iran Conflict Slashes Market Breadth Across All Caps
Since the start of the US-Iran war, breadth has deteriorated sharply across large, mid, and small caps.
1970s Food Shocks Outpaced Energy Crises, Says White
"It's an underappreciated fact that the food shocks in the 1970s were larger than the energy shocks" -Simon White, BBG
VIX Hits Highest Level Since April 2025 Tariff
VIX closed at its highest since the Apr'25 tariff (and above the +1 StD level).
Individual Stocks Show Triple the Index’s Volatility
"The average stock within the index has been nearly three times as volatile as the index itself (and the implied vol spread suggests the options market believes this will persist)." -GS Pasquariello via ZH
Mag 7 Breaks 200-Day Streak, Falls Below MA
The Mag 7—proxied here by $MAGS—closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time since May'25, ending its streak at 200 days.
Despite March Weakness, Long‑term Muni Yields Stay Attractive
"March has historically been the weakest month for munis over the past 30 years. Even so, we continue to favor the long end of the muni curve, where tax-equivalent yields remain attractive." -Larry Adam, Raymond James
