CRE Price Discovery Goes Mainstream, Could Reshape Other Credit Markets
Price discovery in CRE is finally becoming the norm. Will this newfound religion seep into other credit markets?
DiMartino Booth Analyzes Fed Minutes, Warsh on Bloomberg
Danielle DiMartino Booth Appears on ‘Bloomberg Surveillance’ To Discuss the Fed, Kevin Warsh and FOMC Minutes https://t.co/gIAvnY1b80 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy
Margin Debt Matters as Inflation‑adjusted % of GDP
Why bother pronouncing that margin debt has hit $1.3T in isolation? As my great friend @Adam__Josephson demonstrates w/this graph, it’s all about critical contextualization, on an inflation-adjusted basis, as a percentage of GDP. NOW you know what really matters. cc @pboockvar...
Housing and Credit Already Fragile Before Energy Shock Hits
The bigger risk is that housing and credit are already this weak before the full demand destruction from the energy shock has worked through the economy.
Oil Prices
What a great night of conversation w/the Midland Wildcat Committee The mood here is understandably more effusive than the rest of the country w/$WTI north of $100/barrel The Q: At what level of prices does enough demand get destroyed to temp the...
Proud Father Celebrates Son's Graduation and Perseverance
Just listened to @ColtMcCoy deliver commencement address at my @UTAustin alma mater. Tonight, my firstborn joins me as member of the @UTMcCombsAlumni community. Words simply fail. I couldn’t be any prouder of you, William. “Winners never quit, and quitters never achieve victory”...
Buying a “Forever” Car? Expect Instant Depreciation
“Forever” on an asset that depreciates by more than half the minute you drive it off the lot? https://t.co/ks1xi8mh8Z ht @GesualdiMichael https://t.co/jHVIcvsuRK
Stagflation Tension Highlights Fed’s Policy Dilemma
The Weekly Quill — The Tug-of-War Between Stag & -Flation - QI Research https://t.co/7NazYjc7Ln #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/4wmSodUNiO
Profit Margin Forecasts Diverge From Recent S&P Trends
As @jessefelder rightly notes of a must see interview this week w/legendary investor @ptj_official “Forward profit margin expectations for the 493 are strikingly disconnected from the trend of recent years” (He, of course, refers to $SPX net of the Mag7) https://t.co/1s0EuVOTQr
Hidden Risks Loom in Bank Loan Portfolios
The Weekly Quill — The Elephant in Bank Loan Books Take your weekly deep dive with us — Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jonathan Basile and QI Research https://t.co/gfQJcgUb1B #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/6H7LpTbeKF
Powell’s 2025 Easing May Not Offset Job Losses
"Remember there is a dual mandate at the Fed we have data out this morning that showed 3rd quarter of 2025 the economy lost an average of 53000 jobs a month. The question is was Powell aggressive enough in easing...
Americans Face Record Job Insecurity, Turning to Gig Work
"Job insecurity readings are at deeply recessionary levels. The average American is very, very nervous about losing their job. We continue to see more gig workers and multiple job holders." https://t.co/aQzDvxTnO6 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy https://t.co/n2T5fOTs5Y
Fed Policy Shift Looms: Free Full Analysis
The Daily Feather — A Change is Gonna Come — FREE in FULL https://t.co/MtgdpJJsUL #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy https://t.co/67BwUvZ0dD
Grateful for 11 Years of Culver Academy’s Impact
What a great day to be a @CulverAcademies Eagle. It’s bittersweet on this final Parents Weekend. Our twins are the last of 4 to graduate soon. After 11 years, all I can say is thank you for doing so much...
Consumer Debt Delinquency Spikes as Job Growth Revision
Follow the $$$: “HH delinquency worsened in Q4 2025, w/4.8% of debt in delinquency…BLS benchmark revisions showed 2025 payroll growth revised from 584k to 181k…combination matters…consumer more leveraged & labor market was softer in real time than first draft data suggested.”