Gig Workers Surge as Unemployment Benefits Remain Limited
It’s the demographic divide I highlight. There are 80 millionUS gig workers because only one-in-four of the unemployed collect unemployment benefits (can’t cover the basics with what states pay). The cost of doing business for millions of these gig workers just rose appreciably.
Rising Essentials Costs Shrink Household Discretionary Spending
This is what I recently referenced when I said “You can’t squeeze blood from a rock (or a turnip, if you prefer).” When essentials spending devours an increased share of a household’s budget, they simply spend less on ‘wants’ as they...
Workers Overestimate Job Risks Amid Rising Unemployment Fears
April @UMich Higher Unemployment Expectations 68%, 1 point shy of cycle high @BLS_gov NEVER revised NFP lower in 13 of last 14 months, more than the Great Recession @bankruptcywatch Ch 11 filings up 41% YoY Who am I to tell American workers they’re...
February Home Price Cuts Hit Record High Since 2012
I ask you this Saturday. WHO has been ahead of this surge? If you don’t follow @m3_melody you’re behind trends “34.2% of Feb home sellers lowered their list price. That’s up from 31.5% a year earlier & represents the highest Feb...
Private Credit Trouble Threatens Bank Collateral and Liquidity
“Wall Street & their private credit peers are deeply intertwined. Credit funds rely on banks to safeguard & custody assets. They also need banks for lines of credit. If private credit portfolios sour, this puts collateral banks are lending against...
Fed Denies Error While Abandoning Public‑Interest Monetary Policy
Evidence @federalreserve denies to go down in history as greatest policy error in history. To defend a political assault, they’ve abdicated a sworn duty to make monetary policy in the “public interest.” Perhaps a fuller explanation is warranted followed by doing...
Consumption Near Negative Territory Despite Positive PCE
It was the combination of GDP revisions (PCE to 1.9%) & real personal consumption in Jan & Feb running at 0.6% rate. We are a rounding error away from inflation-adjusted consumption turning negative in an economy that runs on consumption....
Final GDP Numbers Signal Troubling Economic Outlook
"Even though we had to dust off the final read on GDP, what it told me…is not good." https://t.co/B12qnALWAS #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth https://t.co/pqjvjdKsks
Labor Market Outlook Spotlights Expanding Gig Economy Trends
The Weekly Quill — The Gladiator Gig — The QI Research Labor Market Outlook https://t.co/HZXa8upTEl #federalreserve #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/aqsKO388pR
NAIC Gains Power to Challenge Inflated Private Ratings
"This year NAIC analysts got authority from state regulators to challenge private letter ratings if they're 3 notches above what the staffers believe is appropriate. The power took effect in January, >5 years after they started asking for it." https://t.co/1xrLwzOj6Z ht @BenBrey
Fed Ignoring Small Businesses Amid Crushing Interest Rates
"Small businesses are choking on high interest rates. Job insecurity that comes out of of the New York fed, just down the street where – from where we are right now, the Fed is not listening to small businesses, and...
Powell's Latest Signals on Fed Policy Direction
Watch today's Bloomberg Radio segment for my latest take: https://t.co/EvzXgapmer #powell #federalreserve #dimartinobooth #economy #bloomberg #bloombergradio https://t.co/hSZnTlk8YH
Core Truflation Below Headline Signals Consumer Spending Cut
"If you look at Truflation, you are seeing core Truflation running below headline, it is telling you that consumers are already cutting back on discretionary purchase." https://t.co/AZWaQ8HgmF #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/3Qh0AXdqub
Unprecedented Job Losses Exceed Great Recession Streak
"We've never seen anything like this…even during the Great Recession the most we had seen was 11 consecutive. It's not NO jobs created in 2025. Jobs were DESTROYED." https://t.co/TEyHYMKiKA #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/7AjP28JOhM
Lodging Delinquencies Surge, Driving Overall CMBS Rise
Where’s the next CRE pain point as I warned last year? @TreppWire CMBS Delinquency Rate increased 41 bps to 7.55% in March, reversing Feb’s decline. Lodging posted largest increase, jumping 137 bps to 7.31%, the first time it’s been >7% since...
Intermodal Rail Traffic Swings From Gain to Loss
Per @AAR_FreightRail Intermodal rail traffic is the movement of shipping containers/truck trailers via rail, often combining w/truck or ship transport w/o unloading the freight Riddle me THIS: Last year, Intermodal was +1.5% YTD. Today, it's -0.4% YTD. WHY? ht @Adam__Josephson https://t.co/Kz9yqFmN9F
Falling
Core running south of headline is a “tell.” Will it catch @federalreserve off sides if they misinterpret the message of demand destruction?
Restocking Signals Stockpiling, Not Sustainable Recovery
Does restocking = industrial recovery if no follow through foreseen? Philly Fed Mfg Delivery Times hit 4-year high of 18.9 in March, FUTURE Delivery Times’ -4.7 was 3-year low; 23.6 point spread a -2.0 z-score reinforcing restocking as did falling Expected...
Both Rate Cuts and Hikes Demand More Income
Cut rates? Need more income. Hike rates? Need more income as growth prospects get hammered, hitting growth stocks.
Liability Maneuvers Cut Bankruptcy Recoveries Nearly in Half
Sobering new read: Liability management maneuvers (LME) often fail to protect L-T value. Per @FitchRatings firms that undertook LMEs btw 2016 & H1 2025 before filing bankruptcy experienced recoveries for first-lien debt of ~39% vs recoveries of ~68% for firms w/o...
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Broad Economy Dampens Shelter Inflation, Says QI Research
The Weekly Quill — Letting it Bleed Broad Economy Saps Shelter Inflation From @dimartinobooth and #JonathanBasile of QI Research https://t.co/OdXHMzZrUu #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #shelter #inflation https://t.co/wCt4RAq1nh
Join Hedgeye Live: Data‑Driven Fed, Economy, Market Talk
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/jaW2cXRAUD #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/y6q60MXSYn
Meta Trims Hundreds of Jobs Amid AI Spending Surge
…or hundreds. Rumor mill finally prompted company to set the record straight. @Meta Cutting Several Hundred Jobs Amid Record AI Spending The cuts will impact fewer than 1,000 total employees, according to a person familiar with the matter. @business
Saving Rate Plummets, Signaling Impending Economic Break
Careful when core<headline. It’s a household SOS warning something is going to break as the saving rate (an AVERAGE hugely weighted towards flushest & wealthiest) fell from 5.2% in Q1 ‘25 to 4.0% in Q4, a 1-in-5 postwar event per...
Zero Break-Even Employment Rate Fails, Waller Warns
You don’t SAY. This zero bound fails miserably too On @CNBC Waller said research suggesting that the break-even rate for employment is ~zero is another challenge for assessing labor-market strength “My brain understands the math, but I can’t get through my gut...
CEO Turnover Soars 47% Amid Heightened Scrutiny
On 47% spike in public CEO exits @ChallengerGray “Public companies extremely scrutinized. Shareholders & boards demanding faster results, social media shortened window for reputational recovery & shifting government regs creating new funding uncertainties for many organizations.”
Selective Data Manipulation Undermines Economic Policy
The Weekly Quill — The Princely Scientists — The Power of Selectively Deceptive Data Sign in now to read the latest from @dimartinobooth and Jonathan Basile of #QIResearch https://t.co/r8mkpVrloi #federalreserve #powell #economy #dimartinobooth https://t.co/BJ2zstFVCj
Fed's Data Focus: Charles Payne Analyzes Decision-Making
Will the Fed look at the data? — #charlespayne and I break it down https://t.co/qyX222T1qM #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
Powell Could Remain FOMC Chair Until 2026
Remember my Manifesto? He’s legally elected FOMC Chair through December 31, 2026 regardless of who’s Chair of the Fed Board “Powell would also be eligible as a governor to remain in charge of rate-setting FOMC, potentially extending his influence over monetary...
Fed Should’ve Cut 25bps as Insurance, Not Wait.
Error indeed lest we forget the avg $360 tax refund boost has been more than offset by higher gas prices? “A 25bp cut wouldn’t have been an inflation surrender. It would have been a recognition that the bigger risk is being...
Economic Shockwaves: Oil, Shipping, and More
The Daily Feather — Shockers Sign in to read now — Oil Shocks, shipping shocks and more… https://t.co/sOMxU9yIid #dimartinobooth #economy #shock https://t.co/H0Lus1itBz
Meta May Cut over 20% of Staff
WHY is it always late on a Friday night? Do they think the headline will go unnoticed? @Meta planning layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company @Reuters reports, citing 3 unidentified sources familiar w/matter. To put into...
Rising Fuel Costs and Wage Disinflation Curb Spending, GDP 0
Big pop in pump prices will drag on discretionary spending when wages succumbing to disinflation. And consider starting point of 0.7% GDP coming into 2026 (which today’s GDP revisions demonstrate were driven WAY MORE by fundamentals vs old narrative of...
Private Credit Outperforms Amid Fed Uncertainty
The Weekly Quill — Res Ipsa Loquitur Private Credit Speaks for Itself From Danielle DiMartino Booth and #QIResearch https://t.co/puLw4aiRoS #federalreserve #powell #economy #dimartinobooth #privatecredit. #credit https://t.co/rQ1Eu6Honk
Gig Drivers Face Shrinking Pay as Jobs Vanish
WHEN jobs START disappearing? A) Hail an @Uber or @lyft B) Ask driver how supply of new drivers has affected their take-home pay & working hours C) Ask why they didn't apply for unemployment benefits D) Circle back please PS) You'd have read about this...
Join Hedgeye Live: Data‑Driven Fed, Economy, Market Talk
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/MHeVrqQao0 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/YcfP4M0qvV
Bands Decline on Hot 100; Solo Acts Dominate
Interrupting what's left of yet another manic trading day to bring you this sad reality via @SoberLook Bands have steadily lost prominence on Billboard Hot 100 since their 1960s peak, with solo artists and collaborations dominating chart-topping hits over the...
WTI Surpasses Brent, Signaling Market Shift
Hey @chigrl How common is it to see WTI>Brent and what does it signify please? “West Texas Intermediate surged as much as 15% to $104.61 a barrel at the open after last week adding a record 36%. Brent climbed above $102.” @business
Oracle to Slash Thousands of Jobs in $1.6B AI‑driven Restructuring
Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch “In September @Oracle disclosed in a filing it was planning its largest-ever restructuring, which will cost as much as $1.6B in the current fiscal year ending May, incl severance...
Takeda Slashes 400 US Jobs in Restructuring
Takeda to Cut 400 US Jobs as Part of Overhaul, Nikkei Says @business cc @dailyjobcuts @MacroEdgeRes
Aramco Eyes Red Sea Route as Hormuz Tensions Rise
Efficacy of such a move @chigrl ? Aramco Explores Plan to Export Oil Via Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz The world’s biggest oil exporter has a 5M barrel-a-day pipeline that runs across the country which can transport oil from fields in the...
CBA Flags AI‑generated Loan Fraud, Alerts Authorities
Leaving this here “It comes as CBA..grapples w/the onset of AI technologies. The bank in the midst of rolling out AI systems across its business banking, communications & fraud-detection operations. In March 2025, CBA invested in AI firm Anthropicto drive...
Block Slashes 4,000 Jobs, Bets on AI Productivity
Ending the month with a bang @jack Block Block is cutting 4,000 employees, reducing its workforce by nearly half as the financial technology firm places a bet on artificial intelligence changing the future of labor productivity. cc @dailyjobcuts @MacroEdgeRes
EBay Cuts 800 Jobs; Laid‑offs Weigh Benefits vs Uber Earnings
Case in point: @eBay announced today it’s cutting 800 jobs, or 6% of its full-time employees. HQ San Jose, CA If you’re one of one of them, do you collect UE benefits from CA or get paid 114% more to drive @Uber...
Widening Spreads Signal Potential Prolonged Market Shakeout
Truth: “If spreads keep widening and banks keep lagging, this is more than a one day shakeout. If they stabilize, this was the market resetting positioning and rotating and not the start of a whole new regime.”
Walmart CEO: Tariffs Gone, Wages Drive Pricing
"If you refer to those Walmart earnings. The CEO saying that tariffs are no longer an issue when it comes to pricing, but rather wages and income…" https://t.co/0OABeT0az6 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy #schwab https://t.co/VX4my3zpe8
Walmart Automation Slashes Labor Costs, Boosts Productivity
Automation efforts are cutting down labor costs, increasing productivity and improving delivery speeds @Walmart per its earnings call. @DowJones
Walmart Health and Wellness Sales
In 3Q, @Walmart health & wellness”/pharmacy sales grew by 12.3% vs grocery & general merchandise sales, each up ~3%. In 2022, “health & wellness” accounted for 12% of Walmart U.S.’s sales; in 3 years that number up to ~15% @Adam__Josephson Is...
Record Wave of Large Bankruptcies Hits Weekly
How is this a healthy development? At least SIX big companies (liabilities >=$50M) have filed for bankruptcy EVERY WEEK during 3-wk period that began Jan 10, a level matched a handful of times since the turn of the century…last week alone...