Central Banks Pivot to Demand‑driven Liquidity, Warsh Aligns
With Kevin Warsh's nomination locked in, here's my recent take on central banks' growing shift from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity frameworks. The best version of Warsh's balance sheet ambitions would follow this trend.
Hidden Forces Eroding the Foundation of Dollar Dominance
Interesting thread that makes the case for what @sobel_mark calls the "termites feasting away at the foundation of dollar dominance". Should give us pause... (1/2)
Cash Surges in 2025, Boosting Fed Balance Sheet
𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡. The @NewYorkFed's SOMA annual report shows currency growth accelerated in 2025! This is a bit surprising given the digital age, but it bodes well for the Fed's balance sheet and operating income. (1/7) https://t.co/jvk7p0srbM
Follow Dan
This is along the lines of what @DanAwrey has recommended, rather than relying on OCC Trust charters and skinny Fed master accounts. https://t.co/2MP5UWLpHM
History Reveals What Truly Anchors Price Levels
From bimetallism to the gold standard to fiat money, what really anchors the price level? Is it the monetary standard, the fiscal backing, politics, or all the above? Monetary historian Kris Mitchner joins the podcast this week to help us...
Quantum Threat to 1.7M BTC Could Crash Market
Wow. Early Bitcoin wallets holding ~1.7M BTC ($120B) are for owners MIA and therefore vulnerable to quantum hacking due to exposed public keys. If cracked, these Bitcoins could flood the market with catastrophic price consequences.
Fed Shifts Focus: From Reserve Supply to Demand Liquidity
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
Dollar's Global Grip Shows Cracks, Not Collapse
Is the dollar’s global dominance foundation starting to crack or just facing a few termites? 🐜💵 I sat down with former Fed & Treasury insiders @steven_kamin & @sobel_mark to unpack threats to dollar dominance, fiscal policy, Fed independence,...
Navigating Inflation Amid Persistent Supply Chain Uncertainty
This growing supply chain uncertainty plus past few years of above-target inflation makes it increasingly hard to "look through" supply shocks. Here is one way to navigate this inflationary minefield: https://t.co/ihDcQmhv7a
The Dollar’s Secret Global Journey: Cash Hoards to Stablecoins
💵From Belarus vaults to Miami cash hubs, the U.S. dollar has a global life most of us never see. Former Fed economist, Ruth Judson, joins me on the podcast to unpack global cash hoards, counterfeit networks, and the rise...
Fed Already Equipped to Navigate Supply Shocks
The Fed Already Has What it Needs to Navigate Supply Shocks--my latest newsletter with cameo appearance by @amacker and awesome Don Kohn link from @darioperkins. https://t.co/ihDcQmi2WI https://t.co/jbXalR3zRA
Fed Should Stabilize Nominal Income Growth Amid Supply Shocks
Great quote that speaks to the Fed's challenging task of (1) looking through supply shocks while also (2) maintaining a robust nominal anchor. As folks like @IrvingSwisher and I have said for sometime, stabilizing the growth path of aggregate nominal...
Stablecoins Booming, Yet Global Readiness Remains Uncertain
🚨 New Macro Musings 🚨 Stablecoins are booming and someday may be an important part of the global financial system. But are we ready for them? I sat down with MIT’s @Neha, @Anders94, and @danaronoff to explore both the promise...
Banks Hoard Liquidity yet Shun Discount Window in Crises
The growing calls for Discount Window reform are being driven, in part, by a paradox in the post-GFC liquidity framework: banks are encouraged to hoard liquidity in normal times but hesitate to use it during stress. Details in my latest...
LLMs Unlock Creative, Original Macro Research
This paper's use of LLM is a good example of the point I was making earlier about AI enabling more creative and original macro research. https://t.co/cuw6Wvc9Jo https://t.co/MFOBDrWeqO