Quantum Threat to 1.7M BTC Could Crash Market
Wow. Early Bitcoin wallets holding ~1.7M BTC ($120B) are for owners MIA and therefore vulnerable to quantum hacking due to exposed public keys. If cracked, these Bitcoins could flood the market with catastrophic price consequences.
Fed Shifts Focus: From Reserve Supply to Demand Liquidity
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
Dollar's Global Grip Shows Cracks, Not Collapse
Is the dollar’s global dominance foundation starting to crack or just facing a few termites? 🐜💵 I sat down with former Fed & Treasury insiders @steven_kamin & @sobel_mark to unpack threats to dollar dominance, fiscal policy, Fed independence,...
Navigating Inflation Amid Persistent Supply Chain Uncertainty
This growing supply chain uncertainty plus past few years of above-target inflation makes it increasingly hard to "look through" supply shocks. Here is one way to navigate this inflationary minefield: https://t.co/ihDcQmhv7a
The Dollar’s Secret Global Journey: Cash Hoards to Stablecoins
💵From Belarus vaults to Miami cash hubs, the U.S. dollar has a global life most of us never see. Former Fed economist, Ruth Judson, joins me on the podcast to unpack global cash hoards, counterfeit networks, and the rise...
Fed Already Equipped to Navigate Supply Shocks
The Fed Already Has What it Needs to Navigate Supply Shocks--my latest newsletter with cameo appearance by @amacker and awesome Don Kohn link from @darioperkins. https://t.co/ihDcQmi2WI https://t.co/jbXalR3zRA
Fed Should Stabilize Nominal Income Growth Amid Supply Shocks
Great quote that speaks to the Fed's challenging task of (1) looking through supply shocks while also (2) maintaining a robust nominal anchor. As folks like @IrvingSwisher and I have said for sometime, stabilizing the growth path of aggregate nominal...
Stablecoins Booming, Yet Global Readiness Remains Uncertain
🚨 New Macro Musings 🚨 Stablecoins are booming and someday may be an important part of the global financial system. But are we ready for them? I sat down with MIT’s @Neha, @Anders94, and @danaronoff to explore both the promise...
Banks Hoard Liquidity yet Shun Discount Window in Crises
The growing calls for Discount Window reform are being driven, in part, by a paradox in the post-GFC liquidity framework: banks are encouraged to hoard liquidity in normal times but hesitate to use it during stress. Details in my latest...
LLMs Unlock Creative, Original Macro Research
This paper's use of LLM is a good example of the point I was making earlier about AI enabling more creative and original macro research. https://t.co/cuw6Wvc9Jo https://t.co/MFOBDrWeqO
Housing Links Monetary Policy to Demand and Fertility
Ed Leamer famously argued “Housing is the Business Cycle”. This paper adds color to that claim by showing monetary policy ⇒ mortgage rates ⇒ house prices ⇒ home equity borrowing ⇒ aggregate demand. Housing also affects fertility, as @JesusFerna7026 noted...
Recognizing Discount Window Could Slash Reserve Demand by $1T
"If the liquidity requirement framework were revised to recognize banks’ capacity to borrow from the discount window, reserve demand could fall by a lot, perhaps about $1 trillion." https://t.co/kkmZqcwLGH
Current Monetary Policy Fails; Need Easier
If only there were a monetary policy regime that made it easier for central banks to navigate such trying times… oh wait https://t.co/XA5Pw2bVIi (1/2)
Three Paths for a New Fed‑Treasury Accord
Guest post by @Petercontibrown on three potential paths for a new Fed-Treasury accord. https://t.co/99ynaEpsMi @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @amacker @vtg2 @senoj_erialc https://t.co/xKOGn0fS5W
Liquidity Buffers Intended for Crises Are Being Hoarded
Great point in @SecScottBessent speech: Post-2008 liquidity buffers were designed to be spent in a crisis. Instead, they are treated as untouchable minimums and so banks hoard liquid assets rather than deploy them, making stress worse. (1/3) @vtg2 @BrendanPedersen @amacker...