David J. Doherty
Fintech professional who publishes detailed explainers on dealer hedging mechanics (vanna/charm), volatility dynamics, and OpEx effects.
Oil Peaks 2029, Gas Paths Split, Power Grows
The Diverging Future of Oil and Gas: - Global oil demand is projected to peak around 2029 before entering a structural decline driven by transport electrification. - Under the economic transition scenario, global gas demand grows 29% from today to 2050. - In the net zero scenario, gas demand peaks in 2029 and declines 3% annually, falling 44% below current levels by 2050. - Global power system size is projected to grow 29% by 2035 and 69% by 2050 in the economic transition scenario.
US Oil Reserves Hold, but Depletion Speeds, Futures May Surge
The US has ample reserves to continue pushing out 15 million barrels for many months. That said the rate of depletion is increasing. As we get towards peak oil usage we may see reserves drop more quickly. Even if “peace” in the...
Farmland's Modest Returns, but Data Centers, Solar Boost Yields
The Cult of Farmland Investing: Over the past 70 years, long-term appreciation of farmland has averaged about 6% annualized. Only about 3% of US farmland is currently owned by institutional investors. Land converted for data centers can bring in 8 to...
Chevron CEO Warns Shortages Despite High Prices
Good insights from Chevron CEO: - June/July is when we may see shortages - Ignore the oil futures curve - Despite high prices intimated that it won’t necessarily result in higher supply
Fed Resumes Treasury Purchases, Boosting Asset Prices
The Federal Reserve started buying more Treasuries again. This has been underreported by the media. Presumably things like wars are much better for audience numbers... Towards the end of last year, the Federal reserve started buying more short-term bonds (T-bills) whilst...
30-Year Yields Likely Rise, Boosting Retiree Income
1Y ago I was talking about the coiling of the 30Y and cautioned against trading the 5% level. Today the 30Y has moved meaningfully past 5%. It may come back, or it may go higher as inflation fears kick in again. We...
Fed Quietly Resumed QE, Adding $200B to Balance Sheet
An under appreciated regime change is that the Federal Reserve quietly restarted Quantitative Easing (QE) in December by expanding its balance sheet. The Fed accumulates bonds, soaking up bonds that would otherwise go to the open market reducing money supply. ~$200B increase...
Owner's Rent Index Surges 7% Amid Survey Uncertainty
One component of CPI is owner's equivalent rent. It shot up at an almost 7% annualized rate in the most recent report. The last time it came in so hot it's because interest rates were near 0%. The problem is it's...
Russia's Front Stalls: Communication Failures Reveal Real Losses
Loss of phone service, trouble making mobile payments; losing more infantry than being recruited,along no forward progress on the front lines. Russia is allegedly realizing they are losing despite all the propaganda they are being fed
Investor Predicts $2 Trillion SpaceX IPO, Pushes Valuation
Ron Baron, Tesla investor, believes SpaceX will IPO at 1.5-2 trillion dollars. Sounds like there will be about $70B of float. Baron’s fund owns $15B of SpaceX. He is a big shill for musk and got mega rich via Tesla & is...
1800% VCX Surge Highlights Missed Allocation Opportunity
Going to stop talking about $VCX (formerly $INNOX) because I’ll start sounding like a shill. Found the trade I put in my YOLO account. It’s up 1,800% since December. Pretty wild. If only I had put 20% of my overall accounts in...
Tesla's Flat Revenue Meets 400x Earnings Premium
Tesla ($TSLA) revenue: TTM: 97,879,000 2025: 94,827,000 2024: 97,690,000 2023: 96,773,000 The market is currently paying 400x earnings for a company with low/no growth. Crazy (TTM = Trailing twelve months )
Political Branding Can't Rescue Mediocre Beer, Shares Crash
Party time is over slick American Rebel holdings tried to cash in on the MAGA resurgence, betting that consumer goods focused on politics would sell The outcome: -99.99% drop in share price. Turns out people don’t want to mix politics...
Putin Claims War Nearing End, but Conflict Persists
Putin said he thinks the war is near it’s end. Caveats that Zelenskyy should come to Russia to discusss the end of the war. States that western countries “stole tension”. Seems like another mind game from Putin. Crazy it has been...
Fuel Crisis Rebrands Green Tech as National Strength
Green technologies used to be “woke leftism”. Now with the Iran/US war hammering fuel supplies they’ve been instantly rebranded as ways to be a strong nation. In Europe sales have risked 20-35% in large nations. This green technology wave will likely...