David J. Doherty
Fintech professional who publishes detailed explainers on dealer hedging mechanics (vanna/charm), volatility dynamics, and OpEx effects.
Unidentified Attack on Chinese‑crewed Tanker Highlights Global War Spillover
A Marshall island flagged oil tanker manned by a Chinese crew was attacked in the Strait. China has kept fairly quiet on the matter and seems no one knows who hit the vessel. Nations are really trying to keep out of the war even though they are deeply impacted.
Putin Boosts Security, Eyes War Exit Amid Drone Threat
Former Russian prime minister saying that chances of a coup are basically non existent but Putin is increasing security regardless According to him Putin will likely start looking for an exit to the war but in his terms. States that Ukraine’s...
Data‑center Slowdown Warns of Broader Economic Weakness
Point72 on signaling a weakening consumer. They were bullish last year and sounding more cautious at the moment. AI spending is truly carrying the economy. My 2c: If/when we see a drop in data center buildout we can expect a weak...
AGI Expected Within Five Years, Transforming Economy
Demis Hassabis, CEO of DeepMind on AI: - AGI will come in around 5 years, probably - London has been a great base (lots of talent & low competition; fewer distractions than SV) - Potential to be 10x the size of Industrial Revolution,...
Low‑Income Earnings Stagnate While Inflation Outpaces Growth
The rich getting richer again. The post pandemic relative earnings growth for lower income people has stalled completely. It’s so bad that it’s lagging inflation again.
LIV Golf Burns $500M, Faces Imminent Shutdown
LIV golf, an experiment in trying to buy a sport, has failed. It burnt $500M in 2024 alone. Likely to be shuttered as it never got its broadcast revenue numbers are up and Saudis are retreating from high spend projects
Frontier AIs Bleed 33% in Two Weeks
The best models losing 33% of your portfolio value in 2 weeks: Take Alpha Arena, run by tech startup Nof1. It pitted eight major frontier AI systems — including Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini, OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Elon Musk’s Grok — against...
Questioning Codex Claims: Validation, Churn, and Pricing Impact
Hearing a lot of good things about Codex from OpenAI for coding at the moment. Will be interesting to see (A) is it true (B) even if it is, what’s the customer churn on Claude like (C) does this have a pricing...
US Stocks Hold Steady as Europe Drags, Global Outlook Bullish
Vanguard global stock index is up about the same amount as the US market this year. Europe is acting as a drag so far this year with other markets (eg Brazil) outperforming strongly. Seems like international investors have got comfortable with...
Leveraged Google Bet Yields 125% Return Amid Strong Q1 Earnings
Never took my leveraged bet on Google off the books. Up 125% now. Should have levered more but I’m a fairly conservative investor. Q1 2026 Earnings Highlights shows they are firing on all business lines still. Revenue: $109.9 billion (Expected $107.2B). Earnings...
Meta's Tax Win Skews Earnings Multiple, AI Doubts Remain
$META Tax rate in Q1: -23% It trades at 23x earnings after today’s results, but if you use GAAP accounting it’s more like 18x because there was a massive tax saving in Q1. On a cumulative basis, Meta had a $15B+...
Putin's Approval Plummets as Russia’s Economy Crumbles
Putin's Approval Hits Four-Year Low, Whatever that’s worth: • Approval dropped to 67%, the first decline in four years of the full-scale war. • Russia's economy contracted by 1.8% in January and February 2026. • The budget deficit for Q1 2026 has already...
Big Tech Prioritizes Internal GPUs, Boosting AI Market
Big tech has a challenge where it has more demand for compute than it can service allocating GPUs internally rather than to its cloud customers. That’s very bullish for the AI trade IMO.
Market Underestimates Oil Disruption, Companies Scramble, Blockade Benefits All
Yergin on oil price and his energy conference: - Market is underpricing oil disruption - Oil companies scrambling to figure out how to unlock supply (ie they think it’s not a quick fix) - Believes that both sides think the blockade of...
Altman Urges Guardrails as Congress Still Debates Facebook
Here is Sam Altman saying “society” is good at figuring out issues, referring to AI chatbots and their ability to create “very problematic parasocial relationships” that will require new guardrails. Also here: members of congress talking about Facebook 14 years after...
Intel Tops Dot‑com Peak as Big Tech Adopts Its Chips
After 26 years, $INTC surpasses its peak dot com price. Intel’s resurgence on Friday comes as big tech turns to it for custom chips with Microsoft, Google and Amazon as companies turning to Intels foundry capbilities.
AI Table Tennis Robot's Multi-Camera Edge Sparks Fairness Debate
A human-beating table tennis AI robot uses 9 cameras around the court. Seems like cheating to me. Should only be allowed one viewing position to make it more comparable. I wonder how long before these things are sold as training aids...
Kalshi's $19B Valuation Seems Frothy Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Kalshi doing a private offering at a $19B valuation. Feels about right but a little frothy for a company whose regulatory regime could pivot quickly
AI Fears Slash Software CLO Exposure, Widen Valuation Gap
Software Sector Debt Market Shifts (data via Mizuho): • CLO software allocations dropped from 15% to 5-8% • AI risk fears have pushed some performing credits into the 70s-80s • Refinancing private credit into Term Loan B is currently stalled AI disruption fears are...
EU Grants Ukraine $90B as Kyiv Jokes “Donnyland”
Funding secured: $90B for Ukraine from the EU And Ukraine playing up to Trump by suggesting a rename of some of its land in his name (dubbed Donnyland)
Anthropic Likely a Short‑term Edge, Not Forever
Shame that these companies aren’t publicly traded. It would be a good voting machine for which AI companies are going to win. There is a hypothesis being tested: “Is Anthropic a temporary winner with a slightly better coding model?” Or “is...
Mythos Could Exploit Vulnerabilities, Raising Skynet Concerns
Mythos, Anthropic’s not yet released model, allegedly can not only find security gaps but exploit them. How far from Skynet are we?
LNG Prices Surge, Boosting US Exports and China's Renewables
Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 600x more dense than the gas when it is extracted. Prices have doubled after the war and it seems to have 2 major beneficiaries: US short term: higher demand for its LNG exports China: higher demand for...
Europe Plans Permanent Body to Pursue Russian War Crimes
Europe is likely to create a permanent office/organization to investigate/prosecute Russian acts against Ukraine. Even if that war were to resolve today, the impacts will linger for decades. https://youtu.be/sR5heFGlnIA?si=WUkOfdFRgiSfDKvK
US GDP per Capita Inflated by Healthcare Accounting Differences
On the face of it, US GDP per capita is higher than Europe‘s. However keep in mind 🔑 differences An example: US healthcare is incorporated into numbers via market values. European healthcare numbers are on cost of production. US spending...
Geopolitical Strikes Push Global Gas Prices Higher
Gas at the pump just hit $4/gallon. US stepped up attacks on Iran hitting missile depots. Unclear if this will lead to more escalation or signals a peak. Ukraine hit Russian oil production facilities almost 1000km from its border which will...
One Pilot, Many Drones: AI-Driven Swarm Warfare
Drone warfare 🤝 AI Currently each drone requires a single pilot. Now that drone production is increasing rapidly, manufacturers in Ukraine are attempting to move to 1 pilot for many drones. The idea is the drones will pilot themselves towards targets...
Private Equity Smooths Portfolio Risk in Volatile Markets
“Private equity (PE) offers significant benefits during periods of market volatility by providing portfolio diversification & lower reported volatility, because PE investments are not publicly traded, they are less susceptible to daily market sentiment, offering a "smoothing" effect that reduces...
Yen Hits Weakest Level Since 1980s Market Crash
The Japanese Yen (JPY) sits at an uncomfortable precipice. It’s not been this weak since the 1980s when the Japanese stock market collapsed.
Saudi Crown Prince Urges US to Sustain Iran War
🚨 Report: Saudi Arabia Pushing for Escalation? New reports suggest Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is privately urging the U.S. to maintain its military campaign against Iran, viewing it as a "historic opportunity" to reshape the Middle East. Key Takeaways: •...
Stable 3‑Month Volatility Spike Signals Deepening Market Fear
A 3 month stable uptrend in implied volatility is a very rare and negative signal. Market participants are getting more and more afraid of a market decline. There may be more pain to go before there is a capitulation event.
Meta's Sub‑20x PE Signals Cheap Growth Bet
$META forward PE has dropped below 20x It's quite cheap given the growth it has been able to maintain. You're getting for free these bets: Oculus / Wearables / AI. Not as compelling as Google's 2025 stock price when you got...
Figma’s AI Boost May Offset Steep Revenue Decline
$FIG, Figma, is down 80%+ over 1 year. It's just released AI agent integration so your bots can design for you. https://www.figma.com/blog/the-figma-canvas-is-now-open-to-agents/ Their SG&A costs have grown linearly with their revenue suggesting they need to increase prices or control costs to get to...
Treasury Yields Return to Trump Era, Signaling Market Anxiety
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
AI Agents Completed Weeks of Work in One Day
AI Dev team progress report. I set up 8 agents on a silo’d mini Mac with a private GH project. I spent around a day setting them up and improving the working model. Yesterday I gave them a bunch of tasks...
Middle East Energy Crisis Threatens Global Economy and War Funding
Middle East energy crisis: Qatar: $20B revenue loss from ther facilities being hit. CEO of Qatar energy said it would take 3 years to fix. Dep of War needs $200B to fund Iran war. Irans facilities have also been hit. Trump says “It will...
Seeking Beach House Recommendations in Southern Europe
Anyone got recommendations for beach houses in south Europe? I’m thinking Portugual/Spain/France. I’m specifically not looking for cities, but if it’s not too far from an airport that’s a bit of a bonus
Rising Income, Oil, Deficits Make Rate Cuts Tough
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
Gold's Declining Allocation May Soon Boost Returns
In the 1970s gold was recommended in many places as a 10-15% weighting of your portfolio. Today it’s basically zero. Gold has shot up but if recommended allocations skew higher to follow prices it could be a long term tailwind...
SpaceX IPO Targets June 9, Citing Cash Flow Limits
SpaceX potentially IPO’ing on 6/9 (69). Musk wanted to keep his companies private as long as possible so the IPO will set off rumors that private markets can’t shoulder the cashflow needs of SpaceX’s spending. The IPO is allegedly time to align...
Trump’s Erratic Demands Jeopardize Hormuz Cooperation, Iran Outlasts
It’s hard to see how international countries will cooperate with Trump on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open after 14 months of erratic demands. It’s one thing for Trump to complain about paying for European protection (somewhat understandable) but asking...
Commodity Hoarding Signals New Regime, Not Temporary Spike
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
NYC Car Life: Double Parking Fees, Persistent Snow, Naïve Waze
NY car musings: - Waze naively asking if the pot hole in NYC is still there - NY parking rate model: basically $14 to park your car, $14 to bring it back. Otherwise quite cheap (25c/hr from 8->24hrs) - still a couple meagre...
Kalshi's Oil Futures: A Second‑Derivative Market Twist
Kalshi markets on oil futures is crazy because it’s a 2nd derivative. Current oil price-> CL futures (first derivative) -> Kalshi (2nd derivative). Leads to very odd dynamics if Kalshi markets get big enough