Iran Deal Boosts USTs, 30-Year Yields Return to 5%
Front end UST supply and futures rolls (M to U) will dominate trading flows this week as Iran deal buoys USTs from the depths of despair. 30s back to 5% https://t.co/insUyZcZIs
5‑Year Yields Overpriced Amid Fed Pause or Hike
A bit too much anchoring to 3% neutral. I think 5s are too expensive for a Fed that is on pause and/or hiking in the next year
Easy New 20y Auction, Positive TU Futures Roll
Should be an easy new 20y auction today with the backup in yields which will set up an interesting futures roll next week where the TU contract finally has a positive roll (2.5). Also, TU and FV could still...
30‑Year to Overnight Rate Spread Matches Historical Average
I know peeps love to doom and gloom about it but nothing that unusual about the current rate structure. Here the spread of 30s to overnight rates and its long run average. https://t.co/Tp7ouJMdsl
Largest Q1 Duration Dump Signals Positive Bond Outlook
Today's brand new 30y long bond auction is the largest duration dump of the quarter. With yields north of 5% and duration risk a real concern globally, this is an auction to watch. Hard to handicap the results...
USTs Enter Depression Phase, Accept Potential Rate Hike Cycle
Looks like USTs are past denial, anger and bargaining, and well on their way to depression and acceptance of the possibility of a hike cycle.
April CPI Set for Double Surge: Crude Spike, Core Correction
Tomorrow's April CPI will be a double whammy. Headline will surge because of crude and core will set higher to correct for the "error" from last Oct because of the government shutdown.
SpaceX‑linked Stocks Surge; Investors Await IPO Date
SpaceX adjacent stocks having quite a day. Any updates on when the IPO is to happen?
War Headlines Dampen Usual Pre‑auction Buying Optimism
Normally a nice level to love tap a few 5s before 3y auction on Monday, but war news and weekend headlines tough to ignore
US Treasuries Focus on Soft Wages, Steady Unemployment
USTs keying on soft wages and steady UER and shaking off headline beat. It seems
CPI and NFP Scheduled Unusually Close Together
I don't remember the last time if ever that CPI (coming Tues) and NFP were releaseed so closely bunched up.
Rate Hike Odds Drop, Swap Spreads Widen, Bonds Rally
Bond trader friendly moves this morning: '27 hike odds lower, swap spreads wider, long-end bid.... Y'all should be happy now.
Potential Multi‑Rate Hikes Create UST & SOFR Opportunities
Should the Fed in the next 12 months decide that it needs to hike rates, high odds it will need to hike more than once and more than 25 bps. UST and SOFR curves offering interesting opportunities
Treasury May Signal Earlier Coupon Issuance This Year
I know we're all HormuzMaxxing, but it is Quarterly Refunding week and there is a small chance Treasury might signal an increase in coupon issuance later this year instead of 2027. We'll know Wed morning.
Crude Surge Delays Rate Hike Odds Until Mid‑2027
It will take some time before we'll know if there will be second round inflation effects due to the surge in crude prices. Why hike odds aren't higher for '26 but with some delay in mid '27