Warsh's Plan to Cut SOMA WAM Gains FOMC Backing
Reducing WAM of SOMA could be part of Warsh's plan which many FOMC members could support
Republicans Brace for Hawkish Warsh Amid Trump Nomination
Feels like Ts are bracing for a hawkish Warsh which makes sense given he is Trump's nominee and he has to show his independence during the hearings
Warsh Vows Strict Rate Independence, Reaffirms Price‑Stability Mandate
Warsh commits to being strictly independent on rates Also Warsh: price stability Fed mandate without excuse
Warsh Hearing Could Shift USTs Amid Iran War
Iran war continues to dominate price action in USTs but Warsh's confirmation hearing tomorrow will likely interrupt the current narrative for a spell especially if he sticks to his recent rate dovishness and balance sheet hawkishness.
War's End Relieves Treasury Funding, Swap Spreads Expand
With the possibility of war ending, US Treasury funding pressure looks to be easing helping swap spreads widen. Nice move today https://t.co/q4hDJXSsiz
UST 5s30s Struggles Above 100bps, Steepeners Fade
UST 5s30s having trouble holding above 100 bps which makes sense. It has been a nice ride for steepeners the past few weeks so a nice round number spot to lean against 5s here https://t.co/Z59ZwWo3hI
5‑Year Yields Rich Amid Front‑End
After a spirited front-end rally, 5s looking rich on the curve as intermediate-term slowdown bets dominate. Unfortunately, other tenors have their own issues. Fiscal concerns make the long end unattractive before May refunding and 2s have a here...
TBAC Survey Launches; Coupon Rise May Pressure Long End
I think TBAC questionnaires go out this week. Any question suggesting an increase in coupon issuance could pressure the long end.
Active IG Issuance Day; USTs Face Pressure Post‑rally
Looking to be an active IG issuance day. USTs feeling a bit of pressure after a nice overnight rally
Buy Front-End On
Solid strategy to buy the front end when pricing hikes. Trump generally turns it around with a positive spin. 5s up more than 10 ticks since the Globex Sunday night open.
Core CPI Must Rescue Markets Amid 0.9% Crude Spike
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
Israel-Lebanon Talks Boost Treasury Gains, Optimism Rises
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
Treasury Yields Surge Above 4.9% Amid CPI, Auction Pressure
Between tomorrow's CPI and today’s 30-year auction, Treasuries are feeling the heat. That ceasefire euphoria has already faded - 30s are back north of 4.90%
UST Rally Surges Confidently Amid Fragile Truce
It's a fragile truce so I am surprised how confident the UST rally has been overnight. I guess taking cues from Trump who seems to have his own favored take on developments
Trump's Iran Threat Drives Treasury Volatility, Long Bonds Lag
Trump’s Iran ultimatum is basically the only story for bond traders today. USTs have seen a volatile morning, swinging back and forth in reaction to the news and moves in crude oil prices. They are now recovering from the early...