Rate Moves Aren’t Driven by Current Data, ADP Shows
Big mistake is assuming move in rates is about current economic data. Reaction to ADP a good example
Bond Futures Surge as Curve Flattens, Front
Bond futures well bid again as the curve flattens aggressively with front end whites all red. https://t.co/d4dX0TgauD
AI-Driven Low Rates Boost Term Premium Compression, Hedge Long Bonds
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and...
Short‑term Bond Shorts Suffer as 5‑Year Yields Surge
It has been a painful few weeks for the short belly crowd (moi included) as 5s has been kinging up on the curve. Warsh nomination and slow AI disruption have been the main culprits https://t.co/3pqYjTV3QZ
Risk‑off Sentiment Set to Dis
Risk off upending most auction setups as US Treasury gets ready to dump some serious duration into a strong rally across the curve with belly leading. https://t.co/vNjhvRIzxH