Productivity‑Led Boom Still Likely, War Sparks Stagflation Fears
YARDENI RESEARCH CHART OF THE DAY (March 26, 2026) We've been betting on the productivity-led Roaring 2020s. That's still our 60% base case. So far, this scenario has been on the money. However, the war has increased the risks of a replay of the stagflationary 1970s (chart). What do you think?
ECB Shifts From Rate Cuts to Hikes Amid Energy Shock
The ECB spent two years cutting rates to revive growth. Now energy shocks are forcing them to hike into a slowdown. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ZKgiJs3tbu
Gold Drops 16% Despite War‑driven Inflation Fears
Gold plunged 16% after the war started. It should have surged on inflation fears and geopolitical chaos. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/sTSAg9gVNz
AI Demand Could End Memory Chip Cycles
Memory chips used to be the most cyclical part of semiconductors, boom then bust. Now AI demand is so strong the cycle might just disappear. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/28L4LpDVMD
Trump Claims Victory as Iran Blocks Hormuz Tolls
Trump says he's ready to declare victory and wind down military efforts. Iran is still blocking the Strait of Hormuz and extorting tolls from passing vessels. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yhVxRubLDX
Markets Unfazed as Iran Eases Hormuz Oil Flow
Markets are shrugging off Middle East tensions as oil disruptions prove less severe than feared. Iran's selective passage through Hormuz is easing supply concerns. 🟢 Open https://t.co/I5Gu8mRO2F
Gold Slides 15% as War‑Driven Safe Haven Fails
Gold is down 15% since the war escalated, even as the Pentagon seeks $200 billion for the conflict. Safe havens aren't behaving like safe havens. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/bzmDKfsv4g
Fed Caught Between Strong Economy Claims and Market Reality
Powell says the economy is strong and inflation will moderate. The stock market tanked anyway. The Fed may be trapped between geopolitical shocks and economic reality. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/z9r6WCt1RC
Iran Conflict May Spark 10‑15% Market Correction
Ed Yardeni tells Squawk Box the Iran war could trigger a 10%-15% market correction. https://t.co/N1pfsujcVF
Seventh Oil Shock Arrives, Yet Recession Uncertain
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
S&P 500 Fell
The S&P 500 dropped only 5% during a Middle East war that shut down oil transit routes. A 10-15% correction was expected. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7hi7kivw1h
Central Banks Pause Rates Amid Oil, Middle East Risks
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
Iran's Navy Falls, Hormuz
The Iranian navy is destroyed, but the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Air power can't eliminate drones, and there's no one left in Tehran with authority to surrender. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/guTcPpmja7
Iran's Chaos Tactics Spike Energy Prices, Cheap Laser Defense Emerges
Iran's chaos strategy is disrupting energy markets and sending prices soaring. Plus: laser defense tech that costs less than your morning coffee. 🟢 Open https://t.co/ZW0OOnRdSV
S&P Dips 4.4% as Hormuz Stays Shut,
The S&P 500 is down just 4.4% from its January high while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Israeli officials say Iran's regime isn't likely to fall soon. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/FqwpWIZsQj
Markets Brace for Extended Oil Shortage Despite IEA Release
The IEA just released 400 million barrels to cover a 20-day shortage. Oil markets are pricing in something longer. Private credit funds are starting to gate withdrawals. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/G7C0qy6noj
IEA to Release More Oil than Post‑Ukraine Invasion, Hormuz Closed
The IEA is preparing to release more oil than it did after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/TcCIMKXR4l
Oil Swings Wildly as Leaders Disagree on Timeline
Oil spiked to $120 overnight, then crashed back to $89 by evening. The President says the mission is almost done. His Defense Secretary says it could take double the time. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/pxfIgCBsxT
Oil Surges Past $100, Inflation Data Gains Weight
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Oil Surges, Gold Slides as Dollar Rallies
Oil spiking to $107 while gold falls. The dollar is strengthening as global markets panic. Both moves happening at once. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/Og6roiaoNd
Middle East Ceasefire Could Lower Oil, Ease Inflation Risks
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
US Kills Iran Leaders; War Persists, Oil Spikes
The US just killed Iran's top leaders, but the war isn't ending. The Revolutionary Guard is still fighting, and oil has spiked past $85. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/oiXuHGPp3W
Manufacturing Rebounds, but Core PPI Surges Unexpectedly
Manufacturing is finally reviving, but core PPI just jumped 0.8% in a month when economists expected 0.3%. Services inflation refuses to budge. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/4QiEXL6LgZ
Jobs, Sales Data May Confirm Fed Rate Path Amid Tensions
Geopolitical shocks meet key labor and retail data this week. February jobs and January sales could seal the Fed's rate outlook amid Middle East tensions. 🟢 Open https://t.co/NUBk2v4rcI
AI Panic Drops Software Stocks, Yet Engineer Demand Rises
Software stocks are cratering on fears AI will destroy their business. Yet job postings for software engineers are up 11% year over year. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7PaTI6jR9W
Foreigners Still Buying US Assets Despite Dollar Weakness
Foreign stocks are beating US stocks and the dollar is weakening, yet foreigners bought $1.4 trillion in US securities last year. The selling wave everyone is talking about isn't showing up in the data. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yXliX9IMIO
AI Boom Keeps Payroll Flat, Cuts Original Workers
The software industry's payroll has been flat since ChatGPT launched. The AI productivity boom may be eliminating the workers who created it first. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/xRx5vLZILo
Tariff Tensions Rise as Markets Await Inflation and Fed Signals
Trump's tariff drama intensifies while markets await key inflation data and Fed signals. The plot thickens on every front this week. 🟢 Open https://t.co/8tpXkyVt89
Equal‑Weight S&P Soars While Cap‑Weighted Stalls
The equal-weight S&P 500 keeps hitting new highs while the market-weight index loops below 7000. Same stocks, completely different story. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/tKGVSNbdyK